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Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO

Monthly Market Review “Groundhog Day 2012: Déjà vu All Over Again” February 16, 2012. Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO. Dheenu Sivalingam, MBA AVP/CCO/Senior Analyst. Ted A. Pavlovich, WMS VP Wealth Management. Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062

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Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC , PhD President/CEO/CIO

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  1. Monthly Market Review • “Groundhog Day 2012: Déjà vu All Over Again” February 16, 2012 Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC, PhD President/CEO/CIO Dheenu Sivalingam, MBA AVP/CCO/Senior Analyst Ted A. Pavlovich, WMS VP Wealth Management Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062 Fax: 218-464-4397 Email: info@bluewater-cap.com www.bluewatercapitaladvisors.com 1314 E. Superior Street Suite 2 Duluth, MN 55805 1

  2. IntroductionTed a. pavlovich 2

  3. US Situation reportTed A. Pavlovich 3

  4. The Job Train Has Jumped The Tracks

  5. Good News On Short Term Unemployment Data

  6. Tax Data (Down) Do Not Agree With Gov’t. Unemployment Data (Down) – Why?

  7. Changing Need for Temp Workers Boosting Recovery But Making Data Hard To Interpret

  8. Housing May Be Nearing The Bottom At Last

  9. This Trend Can’t Be Sustained, So It Won’t Be (i.e., Profits Will Fall & Wages Will Rise)

  10. Market May Be Topping Out Soon

  11. Apples To Apples on Market Earnings Growth (“NBA”)

  12. Markets see their shadowsdheenu v. sivalingam 12

  13. Economic Surprises About Used Up

  14. S&P 500 S&P 500 Started 2011& 2012 1257 Current Level 1340 14

  15. AAII Sentiment 2011: 02/10/11 Bullish: 49.40% Bearish: 26.91% 8 Week Bull Moving Avg: 52% Bull Bear Spread: 22.5% S&P 500 Weekly Close: 1324.57 2012: 02/09/12 Bullish: 51.64% Bearish: 20.19% 8 Week Bull Moving Avg: 41% Bull Bear Spread: 31.5% S&P 500 Weekly Close: 1349.96 15

  16. NYSE Short Interest 16

  17. USD At Same Levels $DXY 79 Level 17

  18. VIX Trading at Same Levels VIX Below 20 Level 18

  19. Global economy at pivot pointKevin M. Wilson 19

  20. IMF Forecasting Global Slowdown

  21. China Slowdown Is Bigger Than Many Think

  22. Fighting Inflation Has A Cost

  23. Chinese Mfg. = Exports = GDP* *Note That Electricity Demand Has Fallen 7.5% in a Month (Example: Allete Sells Less Power If Mines Slow Down)

  24. Asian Exports Plummeting

  25. Euro-Zone Entering A Recession (In Spite of “De-Coupling We Might Too”)

  26. Euro-Zone Unemployment Soaring As Austerity Plans Kick Into Gear

  27. Euro-Zone Deficits Are Structural

  28. Only Money Printing Has Held Off Another US Recession

  29. Massive Money Printing Has Not Produced Massive Money Supply/Inflation

  30. Other Signs Of Strain for Households

  31. Industrial Production (=Exports) Has Been Pretty Good…

  32. …And QE Has Made Dollar Fall, Which Is Good For Exports

  33. Auto “Sales” & Inventory Data Imply A Recession Is Near (Floor Plan Lending)

  34. …Falling Fuel Demand May Be A Negative Sign Though (Ships, Trains, Trucks, Autos)

  35. Dollar Is In Short Term Up Trend

  36. Treasuries Still Indicate Trouble Ahead

  37. -Risk/Reward Very Dangerous, But Market Still Wants To Go Up Near Term -Economic Data and Earnings Should Cause Big Doubts Going Forward -We are Ready For Either Case, But Currently Positioned Against Risk -If Market Sells Off, Risk/Reward Will Be VG & Huge Opportunity Awaits Summary & Conclusions KEVIN M. WILSON 39

  38. Disclaimer This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or commodity and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, for its accuracy and interpretation are not guaranteed. Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of guarantee of future performance and no representation, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The firm does not provide tax advice; clients should contact their attorney, accountant, or other tax adviser regarding tax matters. Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor. Not FDIC insured. No bank guarantee. May lose value. Not a deposit. Not insured by any federal government agency. Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is not affiliated with National Bank of Commerce or NATCOM Bancshares, Inc. 40

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