Transitions in SE Europe and the post-Soviet space; a cross-regional comparison

1. Transitions in SE Europe and the post-Soviet space; a cross-regional comparison Othon Anastasakis South East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX) University of Oxford

2. Regional Transition Trajectories • Fast-track transition: Central and East European countries; EU member-states • Slow-track transition: South East Europe, especially Western Balkan states; EU candidate and potential candidate states • Unfinished transition: post-Soviet states; European neighbourhood

3. Delayed transition: SE Europe • Past the reconstruction phase towards normalisation • Party politics and democratically elected governments • Some political and economic achievements • Developing civil societies • On the road to EU integration through stabilisation and association process

4. South East Europe/Western Balkans: Political vulnerabilities • Weak states and state-building issues • Electoral politics often divisive and polarised • Mixed party constellations composed by liberal and illiberal forces; nationalists and Europeanists • Weak rule of law; issues of corruption and organised crime at regional and national levels • Ethnic issues (Serbian nationalism, Albanian nationalism, ethnic polarisation in Bosnia) • External dependency and foreign interferences

5. South East Europe; economic gains • Sustained growth during last years • Increasing wages and inflation under control • Some regional interaction and cooperation • Foreign direct investment (especially Serbia and Croatia) & flows into real estate • Regional energy routes • Increasing economic interaction with the EU

6. Economic vulnerabilities • Institutional limitations • Problems with the rule of law • Infrastructure difficulties • Unemployment • Limited competitiveness • Political obstacles • Small markets • Limited regional cooperation

7. Euro-atlantic integration • Common EU and NATO orientation • Different speeds in the association and stabilisation process • No firm commitment towards EU membership; EU enlargement fatigue; limited economic interest in the region • Intermediate EU carrots (visa, trade, financial assistance) • Recent EU progress with W. Balkan states

8. Country challenges • EU Accession of Croatia • Sustainability of the state of Kosovo • Keeping Serbia on the EU track • Addressing the central state in Bosnia-Herzegovina • Strengthening constitutional framework in FYR Macedonia • Political backwardness of Albania • Capacity building in Montenegro

9. Unfinished, hybrid transition; East European neighbourhood • Fragmentation of the post-Soviet space • Diversity of political trajectories • Economic drawbacks • Diversity of relations with Europe • Strong influence of Russia • Other extra-regional actors (Turkey, China, Iran, USA) • Crucial geo-strategic status • Increasing attention turning to this area

10. At the rim of Euro-atlantic integration • Unpredictable euro-atlantic prospects • European Neighbourhood policy as a privileged relationship • Increasing interest from some EU member-states for the East (Poland & Sweden’s eastern partnership initiative) • Competition with the Middle East and the Mediterranean side of the European neighbourhood (French interest) • Increasing role of the Black Sea as an area of cooperation among heterogeneous states

11. Political challenges • Drawbacks with coloured revolutions • Electoral-party politics • Diversity of regimes ranging from semi-democracies to authoritarianism • Frozen conflicts and breakaway regions (Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh,South Ossetia, Trans-Dniester) • Redirecting their focus away from Russia and closer to the West

12. Economic challenges • Macro-economic instability • Double digit inflations • Political impediments to investment • Cheaper labour • Competing economic interests among states and groups of states

13. National trajectories • Ukraine, advancing democracy, full fledged member of ENP and closer links with the West, yet divided with strong Russian eastern influence • Moldova and Armenia are introducing democratic reforms with a look to the West • Georgia on the road to democratic reform yet with electoral drawbacks and a very antagonistic relationship with Russia • Belarus authoritarianism and energy blackmail to the West; idea of a union with Russia

14. Concerns from Europe’s eastern neighbourhood • Border issues and migration • Environmental degradation • Energy supply • Political instability • Security concerns • Competition with Russia • Europe’s borders

15. The two regions compared • Similar communist legacies but with some differences • Both regions have pockets of instability • Ethnic conflicts addressed in the Balkans, less addressed in the former Soviet space • Democratisation is more advanced in the W. Balkans • The post-Soviet space is economically and strategically more important, bigger and vital in resources • EU influence vs Russian influence • More advanced regionalism in South East Europe • Bigger western linkage and leverage for W. Balkans