Ernst young irem boma real estate forecast breakfast
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 20

Ernst & Young IREM/BOMA Real Estate Forecast Breakfast PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 50 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Ernst & Young IREM/BOMA Real Estate Forecast Breakfast. Commercial Real Estate Conditions and Outlook 29 January 2009. Agenda. Historical trends and effect of contracting economy on different product types

Download Presentation

Ernst & Young IREM/BOMA Real Estate Forecast Breakfast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Ernst young irem boma real estate forecast breakfast

Ernst & Young IREM/BOMA Real Estate Forecast Breakfast

Commercial Real Estate Conditions and Outlook

29 January 2009


Agenda

Agenda

  • Historical trends and effect of contracting economy on different product types

  • 2008 transactions and status of commercial real estate since the collapse of the capital markets

  • 2009 outlook: capitalization and discount rates and real estate fundamentals


Southern california office trends vacancy rates

Southern California Office Trends Vacancy Rates

Source: REIS


Southern california office trends rental rates

Southern California Office Trends Rental Rates

Source: REIS


Southern california retail trends vacancy rates

Southern California Retail Trends Vacancy Rates

Source: REIS


Southern california retail trends rental rates

Southern California Retail Trends Rental Rates

Source: REIS


Southern california multifamily trends vacancy rates

Southern California Multifamily Trends Vacancy Rates

Source: REIS


Southern california multifamily trends rental rates

Southern California Multifamily Trends Rental Rates

Source: REIS


Southern california hospitality trends occupancy

Southern California Hospitality TrendsOccupancy

Source: Smith Travel Research


Southern california hospitality trends revenue per available room revpar

Southern California Hospitality TrendsRevenue per Available Room (“RevPAR”)

Source: Smith Travel Research


Southern california industrial trends vacancy rates

Southern California Industrial Trends Vacancy Rates

Source: REIS


Southern california industrial trends rental rates

Southern California Industrial Trends Rental Rates

Source: REIS


2008 transactions leasing development and finance

2008 Transactions Leasing, Development and Finance

Source: Real Estate Southern California, September 2008


2008 transactions assets

2008 TransactionsAssets

Source: Real Capital Analytics


2008 transactions assets1

2008 TransactionsAssets

Source: Real Capital Analytics


2008 transactions assets2

2008 TransactionsAssets

Source: Real Capital Analytics


Private markets cap rates summary

Private MarketsCap Rates Summary


Summary

Summary

  • Commercial real estate will re-price by at least 20% of their 2007 peak given lack of debt and changing loan terms to percentages equal to REIT drops in value

  • There is no urgency in the market, as investors are motivated by distressed situations and are waiting on the side lines for non-performing debt to trade; it may be better to be late than early

  • Property owners who are unable to roll over their debts and are forced to sell assets will further put downward pressure on real estate values

  • Required yields for CRE investment are rising with a much higher real estate risk premium

  • Banks will continue to take losses, sell loans to borrowers at discounts and create a new distressed debt market

  • Declining fundamentals (occupancy and rents) due to economic conditions.

  • Begin Again in 2010………………


How you feel today has a lot to do with your vantage point

How you feel today has a lot to do with your vantage point…


Ernst young irem boma real estate forecast breakfast

Thank you.

Troy L. Jones

Ernst & Young LLPPrincipal, Transaction Real EstatePhone: + 1 213 977 3338

Email: [email protected]


  • Login