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Use of Hybrid Plume/Grid Modeling and the St. Louis Super Site Data to Model PM 2.5 Concentrations in the St. Louis Area. Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation Jay Turner and Jennifer Garlock Washington University.

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slide1

Use of Hybrid Plume/Grid Modeling and the St. Louis Super Site Data to Model PM2.5 Concentrations in the St. Louis Area

Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood

ENVIRON International Corporation

Jay Turner and Jennifer Garlock

Washington University

slide2

St. Louis 2003-2005 Annual PM2.5 Design Values – Two Sites Violate the NAAQS of 15.0 μg/m3: Granite City (17.0 μg/m3) and East St. Louis (15.5 μg/m3)

st louis regional pm 2 5 modeling
36/12 km Modeling Grid

MM5 Meteorological Model

SMOKE Emissions Model

CMAQ & CAMx photochemical grid models

Model Performance Evaluation

Initially with Routine STN and FRM Networks

More Detailed with St. Louis Super Site

PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT)

2009 PM2.5 Design Value Projections

St. Louis Regional PM2.5 Modeling
slide4

St. Louis Regional 36/12 km grid

CMAQ V4.5 SOAmods

Boundary Conditions (BCs) for 36 km Domain from VISTAS Continental U.S. 36 km CMAQ Simulations (Whose BCs in turn were from a 2002 GEOS-CHEM global chemistry model simulation)

slide6

CMAQ 2002 Annual PM2.5 Constituents

PM2.5 [mg/m3]

Overestimation of “Other” PM2.5 – traced to overstated fugitive dust sources

SO4, NO3, NH4 and EC performance good. OA performance poor

slide7

Alton

Arnold

Blair

CAP

SO4: Good Agreement

Both CMAQ (FB = -12% to -21%) and CAMx (FB = +3% to +6%). Some localized spikes not captured (note: spike on day 185 @ StL SS is due to July 4 fireworks not in inventory)

StL SS

slide8

Alton

Arnold

Blair

CAP

StL SS

OMC: Mostly Under-Estimated

CMAQ (FB = -68% to -89%) and CAMx (FB = -55% to -88%) both systematic under-prediction

slide9

2009 Projected PM2.5 Design Values

MDNR STL 2002 Design Value (Left) and

2009 CAMx Base4 12k projected DVF (Middle Left) and

2009 CMAQ Base4 12k projected DVF (Middle Right) and

2009 CMAQ BaseG2 12k projected DVF (Right)

20

18

16

14

PBW

NH4

12

Crustal

10

ug/m3

EC

OC

8

NO3

SO4

6

4

2

0

Alton

Arnold

Clayton

Blair St.

Swansea

Ferguson

West Alton

Granite City

Wood River

Sunset Hills

S. Broadway

Tilden City

Margaretta

2nd & Mound

East St. Louis

STL

slide10

PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) -- Granite City 2009 PM2.5: Source Categories by Species

 Overstated fugitive dust emissions

slide13

PMF Source Apportionment Modeling using StL-SS data.

Combined PMF Factor Analysis for Industrial Source#1 Factor with Wind Direction at StL-SS Shows Large Contribution from Granite City Steel Works Direction

slide14

Wind Analysis of Local vs. Regional PM2.5 Concentrations at Granite City Monitor (B) Identifies GCW Steel Mill & Coke Ovens as Local Contributor

st louis pm 2 5 regional and local problem
CMAQ/CAMx 36/12 km Modeling Insufficient to Capture Local Contributions – Need Enhanced Approach:

Use hybrid Plume/Grid modeling approach with AERMOD/ISC Local and CMAQ/CAMx: Problems with mixing modeling results as CMAQ/CAMx designed to be accurate, AERMOD/ISC designed to be conservative.

Use Grid Model with Plume-in-Grid (PiG) for local-scale sources: 12 km grid still very course for sources not treated with PiG.

Use CMAQ/CAMx with finer grids: For example 36/12/4/1.33 km, however even 1.33 km may be insufficient to model local source impacts at Granite City

Use combined CMAQ/CAMx finer grids with PiG for local sources: Combines best features of (2) and (3) without problems of (1).

 Decision to proceed with high resolution grid with PiG model (Option 4).

St. Louis PM2.5: Regional and Local Problem
slide16

Preliminary 36/12/4/1 km CAMx modeling 

 Even 1 km grid insufficient to capture separation between Granite City sources and monitoring sites (shown are CAMx annual average 1 km model estimates)

st louis hybrid multi scale pm modeling approach
Global-Scale: GEOS-CHEM provided BCs to Inter RPO USA Domain

Continental-Scale: VISTAS 36 km CMAQ simulations

Regional-Scale: 36/12 km CMAQ/CAMx modeling of StL regional-scale domain

Urban-Scale: CAMx 12/4/1.33 km two-way nesting

Local-Scale: 1.33 km and finer? plus Plume-in-Grid with CAMx two-way 12/4/1.33/0.444 km grids

St. Louis Hybrid Multi-Scale PM Modeling Approach
camx v4 5 plume in grid module
Secondary Order Closure (SOC) horizontal and vertical diffusion*

Full ozone and PM chemistry using Incremental Chemistry approach*

Subgrid-scale sampling receptors

Releases to grid model when size permits

* Adapted from SCICHEM model

CAMx V4.5 Plume-in-Grid Module
st louis pm 2 5 sip modeling next steps
Testing of Urban- and Local-Scale 12/4/1.33 km CAMx modeling

Feasibility of finer (444 m) grids

Use of PiG subgrid-scale puff model

Updated 2002 and 2012 emissions and modeling for Regional-scale CMAQ/CAMx 36/12 km and Local-Scale 12/4/1 km CAMx modeling

Comprehensive model performance evaluation using St. Louis Super Site, STN and FRM data

2012 PM2.5 Design Value projections

Control strategy development and modeling

Final documentation for PM2.5 SIP due April 2008

St. Louis PM2.5 SIP Modeling – Next Steps
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