International Structure and China’s Energy Security

1. International Structure and China’s Energy Security Brian C. Ventura Division of Social Sciences University of the Philippine Visayas brian.ventura@up.edu.ph HKPSA Second Annual Conference Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong, August 26-27, 2010 This paper is based on the authors Masters Thesis for the degree of MA International Relations 2008, International University of Japan, Niigata Japan. The author would like to thank the Philippine Social Science Council for providing partial travel assistance to defray the cost of attending the conference and Prof. LeszekBuszynski for constructive comments during the conduct of the research from which this paper is based.

2. Outline of the Presentation • The Structure of International Politics • China’s Energy Security Policy, Activities and Strategies • Structural Constraints and Opportunities in China’s Energy Security • Three Likely Scenarios for China’s Energy Security in the Future • Conclusion

3. I. The Structure of International Politics • Liberal vs. Realist Approach to Energy Security • Liberal focus on market mechanism -energy is just like other commodities that can be traded • Realist focus on role of the state -energy is a strategic resource not like other commodities Problems of both approaches; liberal approach do not account for non-market cost for guaranteeing security, realist present energy in state level and as foreign policy issue only

4. I. The Structure of International Politics (cont.) • Structural approach to energy security • Based on Waltz TIP; focus on state as unit actor, anarchy of the international system; distribution of capability • Energy competition as a property of the structure and not just of single state

5. Structure of International energy politics (cont) • Structure of International energy politics • State as the main actors, either as buyers or owners of resources • No single state permanently dominate energy competition and no international organization, either of exporting or importing countries, • Energy Security and state capability • State consider energy as part of capability • Capability is important in achieving energy security

6. II. China’s Energy Security Policy, Activities and Strategies • Condition • Rapidly rising demand • Depletion of local sources • Increasing import dependence • Policies-strategic • Maximize domestic output • Diversity import sources • Use SOEs • Construct transit infrastructure

7. China’s International Energy Activities Belt Country and gateway Russia-Central Asia energy belt region; Southeast Asia energy gateway; Middle East; Africa; Latin America;

8. Categories of China’s Energy Security Strategy • Energy Security by promoting diversity • Transport and sources of imports • Role in Regime Stability • Enmeshment • Simple enmeshment vs. strategic interlock • Maintaining Control • Use of SOEs

9. Major Sources of China’s Oil Imports 1990-2001

10. Outflow of China’s Overseas Energy Investments 1993-2006

11. III. Structural Constraints and Opportunities in China’s Energy Security Opportunities end of Cold War opened new area economic competition under relatively low security threat Constraints question of capability to protect energy assets and transport

12. IV. Three Likely Scenarios for China’s Energy Security in the Future • Preserving the status quo • Increase security through market mechanism • US will continue to shoulder transit security cost • Increase cost of challenging the structure • Continuing uncertainties • Uncertainties in the unipolar structure • Rise of other large consumers • Rising to Challenge • Energy security as equated to expansion of sphere of influence • Push from other partners for China to compete

13. V. Conclusion • Energy Security is a structural issue • One country's energy security is defined based on its structural position but should be seen as part of the broader security terrain that a country face. • Element of policy choice vs. structural necessity