Urban m odelling and decision support
Download
1 / 48

Urban M odelling and Decision Support - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 80 Views
  • Uploaded on

Urban M odelling and Decision Support. AH2307 Anders Karlström Head of Department Transport Science KTH Royal Institute of Technology. From Transport Data Analysis and Collection:. Planning and Policy Operations Monitoring Management and Control. THIS COURSE!.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Urban M odelling and Decision Support' - peta


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Urban m odelling and decision support

Urban Modellingand Decision Support

AH2307

Anders Karlström

Head of Department

Transport Science

KTH Royal Institute of Technology


From transport data analysis and collection
From Transport Data Analysis and Collection:

  • Planningand Policy

  • Operations

  • Monitoring

  • Management and Control

THIS COURSE!

Quantitativemethods

ComputationalMethods

Modelling

Computer aideddecision support


Content
Content

“The main contents are

  • discrete choice theory, the multinomial and nested logitmodel,

  • network equilibrium and assignment theory for car and public transport,

  • and the development and application of a simple forecast and analysis system”


What is this about
What is this about?

Quantitativemethods or

Computationalmethods….

… for Modelling Urban System

… in particularin relation to

Interaction between

Location of activities and land use

and the Transport System

MODELS


Learning outcomes
Learningoutcomes

After the course you should be able to:

  • Describe and critique the application of rational models in decision-making processes

  • Apply urban theories to building a simple forecasting system

  • Analyze policy changes in the urban system and produce decision support for decision-makers

  • Write a report of a simple transport planning study


Examination
Examination

Examination

  • PRO1 - Project, 4.5 credits,

    gradescale: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F

  • TEN1 - Examination, 3.0 credits,

    gradescale: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F


Learning outcomes vs examination
Learningoutcomes vs examination


Project
Project

  • You willuse a simple traveldemandmodel

  • Stylized city of Stockholm

  • Evaluate Policy Measures

  • Examine interaction of land-use and transport

  • Write a report

  • Oral examination


Written examination
Written examination

Four examcategories

  • Demandmodelling with Logit

  • Assignment

  • LUTI

  • Models and appraisal


Content demand
ContentDemand

  • Demandmodelling with Logit

  • Where to peoplelocate?

  • Howoftendotheytravel?

  • Wheredotheytravel?

  • By which mode dotheytravel?

    Transport, housing, workplaces


Content demand1
ContentDemand

  • Demand (contd)

    Logitmodel (repetition)

    Nestedlogitmodel

    Trip generation, Trip distribution and modal split

    Locationalchoicemodelling

    (carownership)


Content assignment
ContentAssignment

2. Assignment

Iftravel, either by car, bike, walk or transit

Road network

Transit assignment

Car assignment, networkloading

Staticnetworkequilibrium


Content 3 luti
Content3. LUTI


Content luti
Content LUTI

3. Land use and transport interaction (LUTI)

Interaction of LU and T

Location of economicactivities

… and freight


Content modelling and appraisal
ContentModelling and Appraisal

4. Modelling and Appraisal

OthermodelsthanLogit

Car ownershipmodelling

Schedulingmodels

Appraisal: What is it? What is it, really?

Critique and defense


How to pass the course
How to pass the course

Last year debriefing:

Therewere 21 students last year

20 took the exam

Onlyonereceived F on the first exam

20 passed the course


How to pass the course 1
How to pass the course (1)

1. Project

  • Get an overview

  • Read the projectdocumentationimmediately

  • Follow the lab on Wednesday

  • Start early

  • Ask Daniel and Masoud

  • Uselabhours to Q/A

  • Understand the requirements of the written report

  • Understand the requirements of the oral exam

  • Keeep the deadline


Oral exam
Oral exam?

  • Project (contd)

    The mainpurpose is to ensureindividual examination of each student

    Make sure that you know your wayaround the code

    No presentation is required.

    Therewill be time slotsavailableon the web to book


How to pass the course 2
How to pass the course (2)

2. Written Examination

  • Get an overview

  • Read the FAQ: On how to pass the exam

  • Look at the Example Problem Sets and ExampleExams

  • Understand the fourcategories of the Exam

  • Locatelearningactivitiesassociated with eachcategory

  • Make sure that you are able to tick offeachcategory in the exam


Grading
Grading

The final grade will then be set according to the grades on the Project and Examination:

First, the grade on the Project is defined to be the anchor

  • If you receive a grade on the Examination that is higher than the Project, your final grade will be one step higher than the Project.

  • If your Examination grade is the same as the Project, you will have the grade of your Project.

  • If your Examination grade is lower than the grade on the Project, your final grade will be one step lower than the Project grade.

  • There is one exception to this rule: For final grade A you will have  to have grade A on both the Project and the Examination.

    (AND, of course, you will have to pass (A-E) both the Project and the written Exam.)


Important
Important!


Course committee
Course committee

  • Free lunch!

  • Yes, and it is a nice lunch too.



Background for modelling
Background for modelling

  • Approaches to planning

  • Whymodels?

  • Limitations of models, critique and defense


Approaches to decision making
Approaches to decision-making

  • Rationalanalysis or muddling-through?

  • Vision

  • Plan

  • Consensus



We need more than the solution
Weneedmorethan the solution


Integrated approach
Integrated approach


What do we need to know
Whatdoweneed to know?


Land use and transport
Land-use and transport


A sustainability paradox
A sustainability paradox

  • Land-usepolicieswillhaveonly a minor effect as a measure for increasedsustainability

  • It is the land-usepattern that is the dominatingsignificantfactor with a hugeimpact of sustainability


Identifying the problem
Identifying the problem


Identifying the problem 2
Identifying the problem (2)



It is difficult to predict in particular the future
It is difficult to predict, in particular the future

Does it work??


Model and reality
Model and reality?

Urban model


Models
Models

Whyusecomputationalmodels (or mathematicalmodels)?

  • Rigour

  • Comprehensiveness

  • Logic

  • Accessibility

  • Flexibility


A good model
A goodmodel…

should be

  • theoretically sound

  • based on good data

  • reproducing observations and other data reasonablywell

  • providing the required output

  • easy to use

  • accepted by the user

  • welldocumented

?!

Whataboutunderstanding?


Validation
Validation

  • Practicalvalidation

  • Theoreticalvalidation

  • Internalvalidation

  • Externalvalidation


Dynamics
Dynamics

  • Time marchingvs forward-looking

  • Equilibrium vs disequilibrium and simulation


Types of models
Types of models

  • OW ch 1, PMG ch 1-2


A structure
A structure


Policy evaluation
Policy evaluation?


A rather different question
A rather different question

  • What policy measuresshouldweuse to achieve a certainobjective?

  • (What is backcasting?)



Critique
Critique

  • People are complex and heterogeneous

  • People cannot be represented by a mathematicalformula

  • People are not rational

  • People are not utilitymaximizers

  • Social contracts and social norms are crucial, whichis badly or not at all represented

  • Where is politicaldecision-making?

  • People willchangeattitudestowardsbig fossile cars, which is not reflected in your models

  • People behaveaccording to habits, and weneed to break them

  • You are not considering the environment, onlyeconomics

  • You cannotaddressissues of sustainability

  • A modelcannotbuild high speed rail, whichweneed


Defense
Defense?

  • People are complex and heterogeneous

  • People cannot be represented by a mathematicalformula

  • People are not rational

  • People are not utilitymaximizers

  • Social contracts and social norms are crucial, whichis badly or not at all represented

  • Where is politicaldecision-making?

  • People willchangeattitudestowardsbig fossile cars, which is not reflected in your models

  • People behaveaccording to habits, and weneed to break them

  • You are not considering the environment, onlyeconomics

  • You cannotaddressissues of sustainability

  • A modelcannotbuild high speed rail, whichweneed



ad