貿易與經濟發展

1. 貿易與經濟發展 TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Todaro, Chapters 12-13 Perkins, Chapters 19

2. Trade Theory and Development Experience Todaro Ch. 12

3. 緒論Introduction • 本講討論發展中國家(LDCs or LDC-less developed countries)對外貿易政策和經濟發展議題，包括外貿如何影響經濟成長和所得分配，外貿是否促使一個國家達到發展目標，LDCs是否應追求對外導向或對內導向的外貿政策，或兩者兼具。 • 每個國家情況不同，不能一概而定。

5. 雁行理論 • 以日本為首，東亞四小龍等國家為輔。 • 在日本之後，其他國家有如大雁成兩三排向前隨著飛行。

6. The Importance of International Trade and Finance國際貿易和金融的重要性 • Many LDCs rely heavily on exports (usually primary products) • Many LDCs also rely heavily on imports (typically of machinery, capital goods, intermediate producer goods, and consumer products)

7. Five Basic Questions about Trade and Development • How does international trade affect economic growth? • How does trade alter the distribution of income? • How can trade promote development? • Can LDCs determine how much they trade? • Is an outward-looking or an inward-looking trade policy best?

8. 貿易對發展的重要性 • LDCs出口趨勢和型態。 • 出口的重要性 • 需求彈性和出口盈餘不穩定性

9. The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Review • LDC exports: trends and patterns

10. Table 12.1

12. Table 12.2

17. Fuel Export Countries

19. 投資與儲蓄關係 • Y=C+I+X-M • =GC+PC+GI+PI+X-M • PS=Y-GR-PC 私人儲蓄, GR=Govt revenue 政府收入 • GS=GR-GC政府經常帳餘額 • I=PI+GI=GS+PS+(M-X)=GS+PS+FS • FS=(PI-PS)+(GI-GS) • 貿易赤字＝民間超額投資＋政府總赤字（政府超額投資）

22. The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Review • LDC exports: trends and patterns • Importance of exports to different developing nations

24. Figure 12.3

25. The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Review • LDC exports: trends and patterns • Importance of exports to different developing nations • Demand elasticities and export earnings instability

26. The Terms of Trade and the Prebisch-Singer Thesis • Total export earnings depend on: • total volume of exports sold AND • price paid for exports • Prebisch and Singer argue that export prices fall over time, so LDCs lose revenue unless they can continually increase export volumes • Prebisch and Singer think LDCs need to avoid a dependence on primary exports

27. 貿易條件Terms of Trade (TOT) • XPI/MPI 出口價格指數/進口價格指數 • 100 103 107 109 • 100/100 103/100 109/102 120/109 • 以上例子，TOT改善，對出口有利 • XPI/MPI • 100 98 95 90 94 87 • 以上例子，TOT惡化，對出口不利

29. The Traditional Theory of International Trade • The principle of comparative advantage • Relative factor endowments and international specialization: the Neoclassical model

31. The Traditional Theory of International Trade • The principle of comparative advantage比較利益理論 • Relative factor endowments and international specialization: the Neoclassical model新古典模型 • Trade theory and development: the traditional arguments 傳統看法 • ＊中國經濟崛起後對國際貿易理論的衝擊

32. Some Criticisms of Traditional Free-Trade Theory in the Context of Third World Experience • Six assumptions of the Neoclassical model must be scrutinized: • Fixed resources, full employment, and international factor immobility

34. Some Criticisms of Traditional Free-Trade Theory in the Context of Third World Experience • Six assumptions of the Neoclassical model must be scrutinized: • Fixed resources, full employment, and international factor immobility • Fixed, freely available technology and consumer sovereignty • Internal factor mobility and perfect competition • Governmental non-interference in trade

35. Some Criticisms of Traditional Free-Trade Theory in the Context of Third World Experience • Six assumptions of the Neoclassical model must be scrutinized: • Balanced trade and international price adjustments • Trade gains accruing to nationals

36. Some Conclusions on Trade and Economic Development • Trade can lead to rapid economic growth under some circumstances • Trade seems to reinforce existing income inequalities • Trade can benefit LDCs if they can extract trade concessions from developed countries • LDCs generally must trade • Regional cooperation may help LDCs

37. Absolute advantage Balanced trade Barter transactions Capital account Collective self-reliance Collusion Commodity terms of trade Comparative advantage Current account Enclave economies Export dependence Export earnings instability Factor endowment trade theory Concepts for Review

38. Factor mobility Factor-price equalization Foreign-exchange earnings Free trade Gains from trade Growth poles Income elasticity of demand Income terms of trade Increasing returns Industrial policy Merchandise trade balance Monopolistic market control Concepts for Review, cont’d

39. North-south trade models Oligopolistic market control Prebisch-Singer thesis Price elasticity of demand Primary products Product cycle Product differentiation Quotas Regional trading blocks Returns to scale Risk Specialization Concepts for Review, cont’d

40. Subsidies Synthetic substitutes Tariffs Trade deficits Uncertainty Vent-for-surplus theory of international trade Concepts for Review, cont’d

41. The Trade Policy Debate: Export Promotion, Import Substitution, and Economic Integration Todaro Chapter 13

42. Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution • Export promotion: looking outward and seeing trade barriers • primary-commodity export expansion

44. Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution • Export promotion: looking outward and seeing trade barriers • primary-commodity export expansion • expanding manufactured good exports • Import substitution: looking inward but still paying outward • tariffs, infant industries, and protection

46. Trade Strategies for Development: Export Promotion versus Import Substitution • The IS industrialization strategy and results

48. Nominal Rate of Protection The nominal tariff rate, t, is Where p’ is the tariff-inclusive price p is the free trade price

49. Effective Rate of Protection The effective tariff rate, g, is Where v’ is the value added per unit of output, inclusive of the tariff v is the value added per unit of output under free trade