Foresight & Higher Education - Two cases - Dr. Ozcan Saritas * Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk

1. Foresight & Higher Education -Two cases -Dr. Ozcan Saritas*Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk *with thanks to Prof. Luke Georghiou who has kindly provided some of these slides

2. Change and Uncertainty: The context of HE Peak oil / Climate change / Urbanisation / Terrorism Gene therapy / stem cell injections / artificial intelligence How should schools, universities and educational system deal with these changes? Curricula / Roles of teachers & students What are the alternative futures for education? – as a subset of broader transformation of society What future for Universities?

3. 1. The “new” University of Manchester • Victoria University of Manchester and UMIST merged in October 2004 to form UK’s largest university • The 2015 Vision of the new institution – overall objective set out in Vision Document Manchester 2015 To make the University of Manchester, already an internationally distinguished centre of research, innovation learning and scholarly inquiry, one of the leading universities in the world by 2015. • Aiming for distinctive identity that equalled but did not emulate the UK’s “Golden Triangle” or the US Ivy League

4. Strategy Encapsulated in 9 Goals 1 High International Standing • To establish the University of Manchester as a world renowned centre of scholarship and research by 2015. To match the leading universities in the world in attracting and retaining teachers, researchers and 'critical mass' research teams of the highest quality. To be a higher education brand synonymous with the finest international standards of academic excellence with pioneering, influential and exciting research and scholarship. 2 World Class Research • To establish the University of Manchester by 2015 among the 25 strongest research universities in the world on commonly accepted criteria of research excellence and performance. 3 Exemplary Knowledge and Technology Transfer 4 Excellent Teaching and Learning 5 Widening Participation 6 Empowering Collegiality 7 Efficient, Effective Management 9 More Effective Community Service

5. 2015 Agenda – Key Goals and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Goal 1: High International Standing Present KPIs • Clear evidence of improvement in standing as measured by reputable international higher education rankings • Appointing a number of ‘iconic’ scholars: 5 Nobel Laureates on staff by 2015, 3 by 2008

6. 2015 Agenda Goal 2: World Class Research Initial KPIs • 50% staff international quality 2008; 70% 2015 • Doubling real research income by 2015 • Doubling postgraduate research students and postdocs by 2015 Present modified KPIs • Annual increase in share of high impact research publications • Doubling real external grant income by 2015 • Treble research expenditure by 2015 • Double no of PGR students successfully completing and no of postdocs by 2015

7. Progress to Date –Achievements • Two Nobel laureates signed (one paid for by large donation) plus another iconic appointment, several more in pipeline • Research income growth ahead of schedule TARE rose 45% in 3 years • Most popular in terms of student applications – growing when others falling • External recognition – Times Higher and Sunday Times University of the Year in successive years • Biggest mover up the rankings but not enough

8. Tracking the ARWU -Academic Ranking of World Universities * VUM only

9. Challenges • Financial • Large operating deficit in 2006 (£30m on £601m turnover) had to be eliminated – now back in surplus • Driven by larger than expected national salary settlements, growth of staff numbers by 2,800, investment ahead of RAE and structural deficit through duplication • Early retirement and voluntary severance scheme reduced staff (mainly admin) by 630 • Highlights marginal nature of academic finances and vulnerability to shocks meaning must maintain drive for productivity gain and growth of high revenue areas • Balancing teaching and research • Initial push for research gave students impression of neglect • University now launched challenging initiative to re-personalise undergraduate education while gaining efficiency through e-learning and Graduate Teaching Assistants • Promotion tracks available for teaching and knowledge transfer specialist as well as conventional careers • Trade off between indicators has to be managed

10. 2. UK Scenarios Project • Dept. of Innov., Univ.s & Skills was formed in 2007 and merged in to Dept. of Business Innov. & Skills in 2009 • Ministers commissioned HSC to run scenarios process to • Improve robustness of existing policies by acting as a stimulating challenge • Assist in the development of new policies and corporate plans • 10 dimensions of uncertainty identified in interaction with expert and stakeholder groups – external and internal • Values and beliefs • Demographics and migration • Economic integration governance and models (“uncertainty whether growth is to remain steady or whether there will be volatility. Increasing economic interdependence, especially in financial markets, poses regulatory and policy challenges ”) • Research and innovation; Education and skills • Scenario axes • Global political and economic context • Values in the UK

11. Figure Scenario structure

13. Drivers of Change for HE International governance International mobility e-learning New entrants Tuition fees Insufficient resources Competition Globalisation Student consumerism Specialisation Differentiation Commercialisation Widening participation Open innovation Cooperation Demographic change New research technologies Business Application in University of Manchester INTERNATIONALISATION BUSINESS STUDENT NUMBERS RESEARCH

14. University of Manchester Scenarios • Our attempt to translate the implications for this institution • Again seeking plausible stories not predictions • Our previous foresight had looked at intellectual and structural trends with the aim of identifying emerging priority themes • But sense of impending crisis means need to think beyond the business plan… • Most recent round articulated UK scenarios for our own environment

15. Global Player Perpetual Motion – Global Player • Research – mainly private sector and much from overseas and for arts and humanities from donations • Teaching – consumer focus delivered internationally via blended learning • Knowledge transfer – one third of income from CPD

16. Global Alliances • Shaken Open • – Global Alliances • Research – Large scale challenge projects with investigator driven funding only for elite • Teaching – Global alliances with franchising; Student idealism demands engagement with social issues • Knowledge transfer – weak IPR driving CPD market for updated skills

17. Manchester as a National and Regional Institution • Protective Collective • Research – Dual support surviving at low level; strong national focus in research agenda • Teaching – Loss of overseas markets, national skills agenda dominates; widening participation • Knowledge transfer – focus on national and regional markets

18. Manchester Downsized and Downmarket • Self-Service • Research – Low level but some self-support through earnings from entrepreneurship • Teaching – Substantial downsizing in home and overseas markets; Part-time and blended learning dominate • Knowledge transfer – CPD market mainly for individual upskilling

19. How are we using the foresight? • Strategic review looking at viability of activities • Profiling all staff in terms of research • Financial scenarios to anticipate potential negative public sector financial environment as post-election government seeks to repair public finances • Strong efforts in areas of discretionary income growth • Executive Education/Continuing Professional Development

20. 3. PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Foresight Exercises BUIM: Bosphorus University, Engineering Faculty The Department of Civil Engineering PYY: Istanbul Technical University, Architecture Faculty, The Division of Project and Construction Management

21. PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Goals Five Goals: Thinking about the long term future in a holistic manner, and Developing future visions for the construction industry and PYY and BUIM departments, with A wide participation, to Identify future R&D and T&E areas, and to Develop research and teaching policies and strategies for long, medium and short terms.

22. Project proposal documents Construction2023 survey tr2023_insaat@yahoogroups.com Pre-project work Keyword analysis Project proposal and goal definition Systems elements and relationships Construction2023 BUIM2023 PYY2023 Project work BUIM2023 & PYY2023 Roadmapping Decisions for today Post-project work Project Reports Comparison Further actions

25. Outputs & Outcomes • New R&D and teaching areas • New PhD and MSc topics • New curricula for 2010, 2015 & 2020 • Optimisation of research and teaching potential • New recruitments (2007-2010 alternative energy sources) • Selection criteria for the employment of new researchers and research students • Collaborations needed with other disciplines • New infrastructure needs • Future development directions • “Know theyselves” More effective communication

26. References • Georghiou. L. (2009). Strategy to Join the Elite: Merger and the 2015 Agenda at the University of Manchester, in McKelvey M and Holmen M (eds) Learning To Compete In European Universities - From Social Institution to Knowledge BusinessEdward Elgar. • Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, PhD Thesis, PREST, University of Manchester.

27. End of presentation.. Dr. Ozcan Saritas Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk