Overview of midwest workforce
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Overview of Midwest Workforce. Bill Testa Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago November 21, 2002. Workforce features. Marginally high income/high wage region A “blue-collar” region; manufacturing concentration”. Region of manufacturing. Region of manufacturing. Workforce features.

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Overview of Midwest Workforce

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Overview of midwest workforce

Overview of Midwest Workforce

Bill Testa

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

November 21, 2002

Workforce features

Workforce features

  • Marginally high income/high wage region

  • A “blue-collar” region; manufacturing concentration”

Region of manufacturing

Region of manufacturing

Region of manufacturing1

Region of manufacturing

Workforce features1

Workforce features

  • Education attainment--higher HS and HS-plus; lower at “college/college-plus”

Educational attainment 1990

Educational attainment 1990

Workforce features2

Workforce features

  • Out-migration led by younger and more educated.

  • Domestic in-migration rates lower (often negative); immigration rates positive but lower

Foreign born population in mw metro areas

Foreign Born Population in MW Metro areas

Workforce features3

Workforce features

  • Urban/rural split similar to U.S.

  • Large cities among most segregated

Seventh district current unemployment rates

Seventh District: Currentunemployment rates

Workforce features4

Workforce features

  • Ag-related employment close to U.S. average; many rural towns struggling

  • Manufacturing decentralizing to rural towns, but income gains are paltry

  • Age profile similar on average--older in rural areas, younger in large urban areas

Historic perspective

Historic perspective

  • Region became high-income during late 19th and early 20th century through agriculture, manufacturing & urbanization

  • Sources of high wealth and sustainability?

  • --Natural resources: transport, energy, land

  • --Agglomeration

  • --Market structure? (union, oligopoly,

  • dis-equilibrium)

Fall and rise and fall

Fall and rise (and fall?)

  • Per capita income

  • Midwest share of nation’s manufacturing

  • Employment growth

Per capita income vs u s

Per capita income vs. U.S.

Mw manufacturing job share of the u s

MW manufacturing job share of the U.S

Employment growth

Employment growth

Midwest recovery transitory

Midwest recovery: Transitory?

  • Restructuring fundamentals

  • --New technologies

  • --Firm re-structuring/industry shifts

  • Idiosycratic factors

  • --S & L crisis

  • --Defense build-down/base closings

  • --Falling dollar

  • --Low energy prices

Recovery participation not wages employ population

Recovery: Participation not wages (employ/population)

Recovery earnings worker vs income per capita

Recovery: Earnings/worker vs.income per capita

The participation recovery to be repeated unemployment

The “participation recovery:” To be repeated? (unemployment)

Implications and other issues

Implications and (other) issues

  • How much will MW economic growth be regained/sustained?

  • High average incomes?

  • Welfare-to-work population re-employed?

  • Work force “shortages” and growth

  • impediments?

Implications and other issues1

Implications and (other issues)

  • How productive the Midwest workforce?

  • Can MW “Development” be accomplished?

  • --High tech/creative class occupations and

  • firms.

Policies priorities for the midwest

Policies/priorities for the Midwest?

  • Training: where to focus? (jobs to match?)

  • Job market efficiency (spatial and otherwise)

  • Immigration & assimilation

  • Facilitating an older/diverse work force

  • Rural economic transition

  • Prison released population issues

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