SoE 2011 – Marine chapter overview

1. SoE 2011 – Marine chapter overview This presentation is one of a series of Australia State of the Environment 2011 (SoE 2011) presentations given by SoE Committee members or departmental staff following the release of the SoE 2011. This material was developed as part of an oral presentation. The full report should be referred to for understanding of the context of this material. For more information please refer to: http://www.environment.gov.au Or contact the SoE team via email: soe@environment.gov.au

2. New cover page Presentation – Marine chapter overview Photo: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft

3. State of the Environment reporting • A report on the Australian environment must be tabled in Parliament every five years • No current regulations regarding scope, content or process • All reports so far written by independent committees 1996 2001 2006 2011

4. Purpose of SoE 2011 Provide relevant and useful information on environmental issues to the public and decision-makers... … to raise awareness and support more informed environmental management decisions … … leading to more sustainable use and effective conservation of environmental assets.

5. State of the Environment 2011 Committee Chair Tom Hatton(Director, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country) Members Steven Cork (research ecologist and futurist) Peter Harper (Deputy Australian Statistician) Rob Joy(School of Global Studies, Social Science & Planning, RMIT) Peter Kanowski (Fenner School of Environment & Society, ANU) Richard Mackay(heritage specialist, Godden Mackay Logan) Neil McKenzie (Chief, CSIRO Land and Water) Trevor Ward (marine and fisheries ecologist) Barbara Wienecke – ex officio (Australian Antarctic Division, DSEWPaC)

6. What’s new in 2011? • Improved relevance to decision makers • More detailed information • Discussion of the major drivers of change • Wide range of credible resources used in the analyses • Report-card style assessments of condition, pressures and management effectiveness • Discussions of current resilience and future risks • Outlooks

7. Quality and credibility • Independence – written by an independent committee with relevant expertise, tasked with providing ‘accurate, robust and meaningful environmental reporting and identification of policy issues, but not for any particular policy position’ • Authors sought best available evidence from credible sources • Extensive consultation • Workshops to determine consensus in expert opinion where evidence low • Transparency about quality of evidence and level of consensus • Peer reviewed (47+ reviewers of chapters and supplementary materials)

8. SoE 2011 Products Full report – hard copy and online • Summary with 17 headlines • Nine theme chapters – each with key findings • Report cards In-Brief – hard copy and online • 50 page summary of full report Additional online materials • Commissioned reports • Workshop reports • Additional tables and figures • Peer review information

11. Assessment summaries in the report

12. Drivers chapter – context for rest of SoE • How are a changing climate, population growth and economic growth creating pressures on our environment?

13. SoE 2011 Headlines • 17 headlines in summary chapter give a high level overview of the big issues

14. Key Findings (in theme chapters) • ‘key findings’ give an overview of more specific conclusions for each theme

15. What is the general state of the environment? • Much of Australia is in good condition or improving • Wind erosion has decreased • Some major threats to vegetation cover are lessening • Water consumption has fallen considerably in recent years • Many urban air pollutants are on the decline • Use of public transport is on the rise • Other parts are in poor condition or deteriorating • The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing billions of tonnes of ice a year • Soil acidification and pests and weeds are affecting large areas of the continent • Our natural and cultural heritage continues to be threatened

16. Drivers of environmental change • The principal drivers of pressures on Australia’s environment—and its future condition—are climate variability and change, population growth and economic growth • It is likely that we are already seeing the effects of climate change in Australia • The Australian economy is projected to grow by 2.7% per year until 2050 • Under the base scenario, Australia’s population of 22.2 million people in 2010 is projected to grow to 35.9 million by 2050 • We have opportunities to decouple population and economic growth from pressure on our environment

17. Persistent pressures on our environment • Past decisions and practices have left ongoing impacts on our environment • Introduction of feral animals and weeds • Land clearing • Pollution • Unsustainable water resource management • Intense harvest of fish stocks • Lack of integrated and supported management • Our changing climate, and growing population and economy, are now confronting us with new challenges

19. The marine chapter contents

20. Australia’s marine jurisdiction

21. Decision Framework for SoE Marine Environment(bounding the system and decision problem)

22. State of the Environment marine reporting regions

23. Attributes, values, complexities

24. Economic importance of the marine environment • Oil and gas – estimated at around $22 billion in 2007-08 • Fisheries and aquaculture - $2.2 billion in 2008-09, mainstay of Australia's renewable marine resources • Recreational and subsistencefishing – marine tourism and recreation, including fishing estimated to contribute $18.7 billion in 2007-08 (no data for subsistencefishing) Photo: Aquaculture sea cages, Jurien Bay, WA – Trevor Ward, Greenward Consulting

25. Key findings • The overall condition of the Australian marine environment is good • Areas near the coast are suffering • There are significant existing impacts on the oceans caused by human activities • An extended continental shelf has been granted • The ocean climate is changing and we need to prepare to adapt • Our understanding of major aspects of our unique biodiversity is limited • The lack of a nationally integrated approach inhibits effective marine management

26. Assessment structure

27. State and trends of the national marine environment

28. Marine biodiversity assessment

29. State and trends of quality of habitats for species

30. State and trends of species populations and groups

31. State and trends of ecological processes

32. Marine ecosystem health assessment

33. State and trends of physical and chemical processes

34. Pests, introduced species, diseases and algal blooms

35. Pressures affecting the marine environment • Climate change • Fishing • Oil and gas exploration and production • Shipping and associated infrastructure • Aquaculture facilities • Catchment run-off and land-based sources of pollution

36. Pressures affecting the marine environment

37. Framework for assessing management effectiveness • The parameters: 6 elements of management • Understanding • Planning • Inputs • Processes • Outputs • Outcomes • Grades • Very effective • Effective • Partially effective • Ineffective Photo by Gary Bell

38. Effectiveness of marine management - progress • Ecosystem-based fisheries management introduced • A number of marine species listed under EPBC Act • Threat abatement plans developed • New major programs funded • Marine protected areas declared • Marine bioregional plans being developed Photo by Darren Jew

39. Effectiveness of marine management – issues • Poor coordination within and between jurisdictions • Regional objectives for strategic marine planning and management lacking • Federal leadership limited • Integrated national system lacking • No national system for assessment and monitoring against national objectives Photo by Tourism WA

40. Effectiveness of marine management • Coastal urban development • Understanding: Good understanding of types and sources of pollution – effective, improving • Planning: strong regulatory measures being developed and applied – effective, stable • Inputs: resources for planning and management at all levels of government – effective, stable • Processes: incremental development prevails, national synthesis and integration lacking – partially effective, stable • Outputs: no agreed management system, low impact solutions – partially effective, improving • Outcomes: ongoing development, pollution and impacts on habitats – partially effective, stable

41. Effectiveness of marine management • Port facilities • Understanding: management issues and impacts well known – very effective, improving • Planning: advanced planning and approval systems – effective, improving • Inputs: limited resources to avoid impacts hindered by cost factors and operational requirements – effective, stable • Processes: localised management of issues, little management of cumulative impacts – effective, stable • Outputs: lacking sound integrated management, generic rule-based systems implemented – partially effective, improving • Outcomes: development driven by operational requirements, impacts on species and habitats – partially effective, improving

42. Effectiveness of marine management • Oil and gas exploration and production • Understanding: impacts well understood – effective, improving • Planning: regional environmental planning and assessment framework lacking – ineffective, stable • Inputs: substantial resources applied to impact issues – effective, stable • Processes: site approval based on economic requirements, limited cumulative impact assessment – partially effective, stable • Outputs: strong regulatory regime at site level, lacking onsite compliance systems – effective, improving • Outcomes: increasing impact on marine mammals, risk of accidents and oil spills – partially effective, stable

43. Factors affecting marine resilience • Structural biodiversity • Species types • Species distributions • Species abundance • Genetic diversity • Gene diversity • Subpopulation differences • Distribution heterogeneity • Institutional support • flexibility • networks Photo by Gary Bell

44. Resilience and management outcome • Serial depletion • Depleted stocks may not be resilient • Fishdowns likely to have left Australia’s oceans less resilient

45. Current and emerging risks

46. Current and emerging risks – key risks • Almost certain to occur + catastrophic consequences • Ocean warming • Ocean acidification • Almost certain to occur + major consequences • Port development/coastal urban development • Fishing • Marine debris • Sea level rise • Extreme or severe events • Catchment-sourced pollution • Algal blooms • Ocean current changes

47. Climate change impacts on Australia’s oceans • Marine climate change in Australia 2009 report card concluded: • Australian ocean temperatures have warmed – SW and SE waters warming fastest • East Australian Current has strengthened – likely to strengthen by another 20% by 2100 • Marine biodiversity in SE changing – response to increasing temperatures & stronger EAC • Growth rates of massive corals on Great Barrier Reef declined by 10% - likely due to ocean acidification & thermal stress

48. Outlook for the future • Uncertain • Most aspects are currently not in decline • Assets and values that are in poor condition are not recovering • But – our knowledge base is very limited; few long term time series; limited understanding of the stress-response relationships = limited predictability • No national time series for the condition of the major environmental assets/values • Looming threats • Changing global climate • Port development/coastal urban development • Oil and gas exploration • Variable between regions

49. Supplementary products - online • Workshop results • National summary results • Regional summary results • Commissioned reports

50. Marine workshop – regional example