The Gold and Silver Story
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China, the largest gold mining country, and Russia, the 6th largest, are hoarding all the gold they mine, and are buyers on the open market. ...

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Presentation Transcript


The Gold and Silver Story

Or

Peak Gold


The Law of Supply and Demand

Gold Supplies Fall


Primary gold supply fell in 2008 for the 9th year in a row, from the all-time high of 2,600 tonnes in 2001 to 2,416 tonnes in 2008.


China, the largest gold mining country, and Russia, the 6th largest, are hoarding all the gold they mine, and are buyers on the open market.


The Chinese government has officially advised all citizens to buy gold and silver.

This was against the law only a few years ago.


From 1992 to 2007

90 deposits with 2.5m ounces or more were discovered.

But only 24 of them were since 2000.


South African gold production has decreased by 30% over the past 5 years.


At the moment, 80m ounces are mined each year but only 15m are discovered, in spite of a fivefold increase in exploration expenses


and demand is increasing


Worldwide gold demand increased by 7% in 2008.


China demand for investment gold [bullion, coins] grew by 396% in 2nd half of 2008.


Germany and Switzerland: gold demand soared by 500% in the 1st quarter of 2009, compared to the 1st quarter of 2008.


USA: gold demand increased by 216% in 2009.


Exchange Traded Funds purchases of gold went up 1500% in the 1st quarter of 2009 compared to the 1st quarter of 2008.


Gold sales of the US Mint went up 78% in 2008; silver sales up by 98%.


Australian Mint sales were up 94% in 2009 compared to same period in 2008.


Austria 1st quarter sales went from 1.9 tonnes in 2008 to 22.7 tonnes in 2009.


The US Dollar vs. Gold Story


Gold is negatively correlated to the US dollar.


Virtually all analysts expect the US dollar to weaken for many years to come, given the massive inflation of the money supply.


Countries like China, Russia, OECD, etc. are trying to get rid of US dollar reserves and discussing a new TWC [including gold] to replace it as the world's trading currency by 2018. This could drive gold up to $5,000 an ounce.


Central banks are buying gold again after almost 20 years of selling it. India purchased 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF in November 2009.


China, Brazil and Russia are expected to buy the other 200 tonnes the IMF is selling if India doesnt get there first.


Russia has said it wants to raise gold as a percentage of its reserves from 2% to 10%. That's 496 tonnes to 2480 tonnes, more than a whole year of world production.


China wants to raise it's 1.9% of reserves in gold to their goal of 10%. It would have to buy and/or produce 5270 tonnes, more than twice a year's worth of worldwide gold production.


How far up can the price of Gold go?


If gold went to its inflation adjusted high of 1980, it would go to $2,360.


If USA backed its currency with gold, gold would go to around $15,000 an ounce (this is probably an impossibility).


If the world's major trading currencies were to be backed by gold, it would have to go to $36,000.


Comex warehouses hold 66 tons of gold: They have promised to provide 1465 tons of gold for future delivery. In other words, they only hold 4.5% of the gold they need to back promised deliveries and must buy the balance in the not too distant future. This is half of worldwide gold production.


World's four largest bullion banks (warehouses) have been shorting the market heavily in September/October 2009 to drive the price down so they can buy the 1400 tons they need.


If the shorting works, gold will go down to $850 or so. Then the bullion banks will buy what they need which will start the next gold rally. This rally will no longer have a lid on it like we've seen with the bank's shorts for the last couple of years.


If the shorting doesn't work they'll have to buy gold to cover all their shorts AS WELL AS buy the 1400 tons they need to replace the shortfall. This would make the gold price go ballistic.


Everything we have said is true of Silver as well.


The silver price tends to mirror the gold price during an up cycle, although more volatile.


  • There are five times more gold stocks than silver

  • Total silver production in 2008 was $10.3 billion vs. $73 billion for gold

  • This represents just 1.5% of the $700 billion US bank bailout last year


How to invest in Gold and Silver


Buying physical gold and silver:

Investment moves with the price of gold or silver.


Coins and bullion from the NZ Mint or the Perth Mint


Exchange traded funds: ETF's for gold, silver & platinum


Buying mining companies shares; Takes lots of research but adds leverage. More volatile than gold and silver.


Managed funds like Socrates Gold & Metals Unit Trust


Peak oil


Investing in oil:

Oil producing companies, large or small

oil exploration or support companies

Or oil and gas ETF's


Managed funds like Socrates Performance and Income Unit Trusts


  • "Regardless of the dollar price involved, one ounce of gold would purchase a good-quality man's suit at the conclusion of the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt, and today."

  • Peter A. Burshre


10 Reasons to invest in

Gold and Silver


Increasing shortage of Gold & Silver supply

Rapidly increasing demand for Gold & Silver

Falling U.S. dollar good for Gold

Gold, Silver & Oil and real tangible commodities in rising cycle for at least 10 more years

Rising inflation pushes Gold & Silver up

World turning to Gold & Silver for safety in bad

economic times

7. World turning to Gold & Silver for safety in bad geopolitical times

8. Governments printing money drives Gold & Silver up

9. Bullion banks losing battle to keep Gold & Silver down

10. Central banks now buying Gold


Advisors contact

George Bayley

TGN Fund Distributors

www.tgn.co.nz


Socrates Fund Management


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