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BIOL 300: Biostatistics Statistical quotations There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain Statistical quotations There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain

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Statistical quotations l.jpg
Statistical quotations

  • There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

    • Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain


Statistical quotations4 l.jpg
Statistical quotations

  • There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

    • Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain

  • It is easy to lie with statistics, but easier to lie without them.

    • Frederick Mosteller


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Professor:Dr. Luke HarmonDepartment of Zoology Office: 1370 BiosciencesOffice Hours: 2 - 4 pm Mondays(or after class)e-mail: [email protected]


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Course website

http://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~bio300/

  • Lecture notes

  • Textbook and Lab Manual

  • Assignments and answers

  • Contact information


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Textbook

  • Whitlock and Schluter, The analysis of biological data

  • Available in two installments at CopieSmart, UBC Village

  • Also available online


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JMP

  • Optional statistical software

  • Used in labs

  • Available in bookstore

  • 60-day trial version on web:

  • www.jmp.com


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Evaluation

Final 50%

Mid-term 30%

Assignments (homework) 10%

Lab exam (final week of term) 10%


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Examinations

  • Midterm: Thursday October 19 in class

  • Final exam: TBA

  • Old exams will be posted on the website


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Assignments

  • Available on course web-page, announced in class

  • Due on Fridays at noon, at your TA’s office

    (eight days after they are assigned)

  • Bonus points for in-class quizzes and activities


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Lab

  • Begins third week of term

    (September 18- 22)

  • Biol. Sci. room 2434

  • Lab exam during final week of classes

  • Book available at Copiesmart in the village and online


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Class Forum

  • There will be a forum for discussion on the web

  • Discussion of lectures, labs, and homework

  • More details available next week


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STATISTICS PAIRINGS

  • Credit given for only one of BIOL 300, FRST 231, STAT 200, PSYC 218 or 366.

  • These are paired with BIOL 300, but do not countas requirements for Biology majors and pre-reqs


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Introduction to statistics

Statistics - technology used to describe and measure aspects of nature from samples

Statistics lets us quantify the uncertainty of these measures


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http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.htmlhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html


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http://www.rit.edu/~rhrsbi/GalapagosPages/DarwinFinch.htmlhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html


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The history of statistics has its roots in biologyhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html


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Sir Francis Galtonhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html

Inventor of fingerprints,

study of heredity of quantitative traits

Regression & correlation

Also: efficacy of prayer,

attractiveness as function of

distance from London


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Karl Pearsonhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html

Polymath-

Studied genetics

Correlation coefficient

c2 test

Standard deviation


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Sir Ronald Fisherhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html

The Genetical Theory of

Natural Selection

Founder of population genetics

Analysis of variance

likelihood

P-value

randomized experiments

multiple regression

etc., etc., etc.


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Goals of statisticshttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html

  • Estimation

    • Infer an unknown quantity of a population using sample data

  • Hypothesis testing

    • Differences among groups

    • Relationships among variables


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Statistics is also about good scientific practicehttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html


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Introductory Puzzlehttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html

  • How to protect bombers flying over enemy territory?

  • British Air Ministry - WWII

  • Looked at distribution of bullet holes in airplanes returning from bombing runs


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http://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.htmlhttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html


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Resultshttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html

  • Where should more armor be added to the airplanes?

  • Explain your conclusion


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Variablehttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html

  • A variable is a characteristic measured on individuals drawn from a population under study.

  • Data are measurements of one or more variables made on a collection of individuals.


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Explanatory and response variableshttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html

We try to predict or explain a response variable from an explanatory variable.


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Mortality on the http://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.htmlTitanic, as predicted by sex


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Populations and sampleshttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html


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Phttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.htmlopulations <-> Parameters;Samples <-> Estimates


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Nomenclaturehttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html


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Properties of a good samplehttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html

  • Independent selection of individuals

  • Random selection of individuals

  • Sufficiently large


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In a http://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.htmlrandom sample, each member of a population has an equal and independent chance of being selected.


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Biashttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html is a systematic discrepancy between estimates and the true population characteristic.


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A http://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.htmlsample of convenience is a collection of individuals that happen to be available at the time.


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Sampling errorhttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html

  • The difference between the estimate and average value of the estimate


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Population parameters are http://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.htmlconstants whereas estimates are random variables, changing from one random sample to the next from the same population.


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Larger samples on average will have smaller sampling errorhttp://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html


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Read: Chapters 1 & 2http://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html


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