ENLARGING TO THE BALKANS
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ENLARGING TO THE BALKANS ROMANIA AND BULGARIA BETWEEN NATO AND EU A summary of the report by ROMANIAN ACADEMIC SOCIETY Country Cumulative percentage change in income per capita 1997-2002 Percent people feeling the country is going in the right direction in 2002 Bulgaria +29 18

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ENLARGING TO THE BALKANS

ROMANIA AND BULGARIA

BETWEEN NATO AND EU

A summary of the report by

ROMANIAN ACADEMIC SOCIETY


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Country

Cumulative percentage change in income per capita 1997-2002

Percent people feeling the country is going in the right direction in 2002

Bulgaria

+29

18

Romania

+7

34

Well on the track, but gloomy still…


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The challenge of catch up

(Un)sustainability of the annual average wage

Hr

Hu

Slo

Cz

Pol

Bg

Ro

% GDP/cap

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Source: IMF


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Not so different…

DIFFICULTY OF CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT

Index factoring in procedures, days and cost

Bul

Pol

Cz

Ser

Ro

Hu

Rus

Sk

0

20

40

60

80

Source: World Bank, Doing Business in 2004


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Improving business environment

STARTING A BUSINESS, DURATION AND COST

100

100

Duration (days), left scale

Days

%

Cost (% GNI per cap)

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

Ro

Bul

Pol

Hu

Cz

Sk

Source: World Bank, Doing Business in 2004


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Hidden threats…

ARREARS, % GDP

20

20

%

15

15

Private sector

Of which

to other companies

10

10

State sector

5

5

0

0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Sursa FMI






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HOW TO MAKE 2007 FEASIBLE

PAIS LEGAL INTO PAIS REAL

Both countries and EC should put more stress on the implementation rather than the creation of lengthy strategy documents; it is important to identify and monitor indicators of real change and design policies with built-in incentives to foster real transformation.


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HOW TO MAKE 2007 FEASIBLE

  • IMPROVE AND DEMOCRATIZE POLICY FORMULATION 

  • Create a national process of policy formulation, enhance policy dialogue to reduce impact of elections on accession process and generate support.

  • FOSTER FAIR COMPETITION

  • Fight the culture of privilege, build a system of property and contract enforcement.


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