Energy, wind farm performance and how to save Berrier Hill
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Energy, wind farm performance and how to save Berrier Hill Programme Introduction UK Energy – a brief history An objective look at wind farm performance Questions Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it Questions and Open Forum . Programme Introduction

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Programme l.jpg

Programme

Introduction

UK Energy – a brief history

An objective look at wind farm performance

Questions

Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it

Questions and Open Forum.


Programme3 l.jpg

Programme

Introduction

UK Energy – a brief history

An objective look at wind farm performance

Questions

Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it

Questions and Open Forum.








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Programme

Introduction

UK Energy – a brief history

An objective look at wind farm performance

Questions

Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it

Questions and Open Forum.


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Power generation in the UK

1964 2007

Central planning by CEGB No central planning

Government funded Equity & debt funded

Public sector monopoly Fragmented industry

Prices & incomes policy Asset sweating industry

Fuel self-sufficiency UK import-dependent

Climate change not an issue Climate change central


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18

AVERAGE INSTALLED CAPACITY & NUMBER OF PLANTS IN THE UK

DTI data, May 2006

11

36

73

152

CHP, imported electricity & other burned excluded


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Where will the gas come from?

Russia, Ukraine, Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela


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ELECTRICITY

10% FROM RENEWABLES BY 2010

-----------------

RISING TO 20% BY 2020

GOVERNMENT TARGETS

Created the Renewable Obligation Certificate system in 2002 (ROCs) to stimulate the renewables market

This is a covert subsidy that more than triples the price a wind farm gets for each unit of electricity produced


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Programme

Introduction

UK Energy – a brief history

An objective look at wind farm performance

Questions

Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it

Questions and Open Forum.


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Frequency of wind speeds in the UK (Met Office data)

73% below 18mph



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WIND SPEED & POWER CURVE MIS-MATCH

73% below 18mph

85% above 18mph


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LOWCA

OLDSIDE

SIDDICK

GREAT ORTON

LOAD FACTORS FOR 4 LOCAL WINDFARMS (2003-2005) – Ofgem data


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Region 4 – Cumbria

2005 UK Capacity Factor

= 28.4%

Total UK installed capacity = 902 MW

2005 Cumbria Capacity Factor

= 25.9%

Total IC for Cumbria = 50 MW

Best site Lowca

Worst, Lambrigg

Source: Oswald Consulting, 7/2006


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70% rise & fall

in 25 hours

97% CHANGE


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Summary of power changes in a 25GW wind carpet in the UK

  • 10 of the last 12 months of January experience a power fall exceeding 92% of installed wind capacity. This means only 2GW was being generated from 25GW of wind capacity in nearly all months of January

Data from Oswald Consulting Ltd, August 2006


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WHY WIND NEEDS BACK-UP

= Trend in demand for electricity

W

W

N

W

W

N

W

N

N

C

C

C

C

C

C

G

G

G

G

G

G

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2020


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WIND vs NUCLEAR

At nuclear LF of 85% and wind LF of 30% it would need

12,804 x 2.5MW turbines

to generate the same amount of power as present nuclear fleet.

‘My Lords, the figures I have already given demonstrate that we would require between 10,000 and 15,000 wind turbines to fill the gap left by nuclear power generation’ –

Lord Sainsbury of Turville, Lords Hansard, 18/11/2003 ref 231118-02)


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Base load and demand

BASE LOAD – MAINLY NUCLEAR

Maximum ever UK demand was for 54,431 MW

on December 10th 2002


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Longannet, COAL

2304 MW @ 70% LF

Peterhead, COAL

1,550 MW @ 70% LF

Torness, NUCLEAR

1,250 MW @ 85% LF

Hunterston B, NUCLEAR

1,190 MW @ 80% LF

CONCLUSIONS

  • TO REPLACE THESE WOULD REQUIRE 15,499 x 2 MW WIND TURBINES AT A 30% LOAD FACTOR

  • -----------------------------

  • 2. and THEY WOULD ONLY PROVIDE POWER WHEN THE WIND BLEW


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GHGs

12.5% REDUCTION OF GHGs by 2010

(= 9.2 million tonnes of CO2)

------------------------------

GOAL TO REACH 20% 2010

GOVERNMENT TARGETS


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Sources of Britain’s carbon dioxide emissions

Total 560 million tonnes CO2 /year – DEFRA data

44

118

84

Only 20% due to electricity generation

213

(112)

101



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The global perspective

  • Tony Blair said this year that if Australia stopped its CO2 emission ENTIRELY today the savings would be overtaken in 10 months by China’s growing emissions

  • China are opening a new coal fired power station every 5-8 days and intends to build 550 coal-fired power stations by 2010


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How much CO2 is ‘saved’?

  • Wind industry use 0.86 tonnes per megawatt hour (MWh)

  • Ian Cawley MP for Humberside wrote to Mike O’Brien the Energy Minister on 16th Feb 2005 suggesting a fuel mix figure of not more than 0.43 t/MWh was correct

  • On March 15th O’Brien replied, “…..we agree that it would be appropriate to use an average electricity generation mix when calculating the current CO2 savings from a wind turbine……”


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VANISHING CO2 SAVINGS

Dirty coal

1995

BWEA

TODAY

OFGEM,DEFRA, CARBON TRUST & GOVT

TODAY

SDC

2020

GOVT 2010

SDC = Sustainable Development Commission


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Advertising Standards Authority ruling dated 21/12/2005

Complaint from Denbrook Valley Action Group, Devon upheld against RES Energy

‘ The ASA consider that although the figure of 0.86t/MWh may have been a reasonable figure to use at the present time, it was not a reasonable figure to use for calculating the reduction of CO2 over a period as along as 25 years…’


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SUMMARY of Part 1.1

  • Demand continues to rise

  • Power stations are scheduled to close

  • An electricity ‘gap’ is looming

  • Government’s answer is all gas and wind

  • Electricity generated by wind is overstated

  • Carbon dioxide savings are greatly overstated

  • Windfarms are only build to reap the subsidies

  • They are driven by Government targets

    YET OUR COUNTRYSIDE IS BEING DESTROYED AS A POLITICAL GESTURE



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Programme

Introduction

UK Energy – a brief history

An objective look at wind farm performance

Questions

Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it

Questions and Open Forum.


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The Berrier Hill proposal and the

local context

  • Wind turbines – size & construction

  • Cumbria under seige

    Local plans

  • Landscape & visual impact

  • House values

  • Tourism & the local economy

  • Environmental issues

  • Any benefits?


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How big are the Berrier turbines? - HUGE!

Clipper Windpower

623 ft

Berrier Hill

345+ feet

Tip speed 150-180mph





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KIRKBY MOOR

HARLOCK HILL

FAR OLD PARK (off screen)

Winds farms tend to breed like rabbits!


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Challenge WCE’s claims

  • Berrier Hill will generate a lot of clean, green electricity

  • Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help climate change

  • Landscape and visual impacts will be mitigated

  • Will create jobs

  • Will help the community financially


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Already shown that;

  • The amount claimed is almost certainly exaggerated (30% LF should be nearer 25%)

  • BUT more importantly it will be intermittent and unreliable

  • It will NOT serve local households


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Typical developer claims

  • Will generate a lot of clean, green electricity

  • Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help climate change

  • Landscape and visual impacts will be mitigated

  • Will create jobs

  • Will help the community financially


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The Berrier Hill claim

‘…….there will be emissions savings of 1,271,295 tonnes of carbon dioxide in the 25 year life time of the w/f….’ (Data from Eden District Council)

HOW IS THIS FIGURE OBTAINED?

22.5 MW wind farm; 8760 hrs/year; 30% load factor

SO

22.5 X 8760 X 30% = 59,130 MWh

59,130 X 0.86 tonnes/MWh = 50,852 tonnes/yr

= 1,271,295 tonnes in 25 years

BUT IS IT JUSTIFIED?


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CO2 SAVINGS BY BERRIER HILL WIND FARM IS

SIGNIFICANTLY OVERSTATED

‘Savings’ likely to be 3.1 times less than claimed


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Quotation from the UKERC Report, The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency’ , March 2006

‘Actual CO2 savings are dependent on what fossil fuel plant is displaced, reduced by efficiency losses in thermal plant ……’

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seimens, Science in Parliament 60/2, April 2003

‘A 2% loss of efficiency in a coal-fired power station can increase CO2 emissions by 10%’


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So WCE are already in breach of the ASA ruling on CO2 savingsAND

homes produce 84 million tonnes of CO2 per year. If every home in the UK saved 10% of its electricity it would reduce this by 8.4 million tonnes.

By 2010 the Government expects ALL RENEWABLES to be saving 9.2 million tonnes


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Typical developer claims

  • Will generate a lot of clean, green electricity

  • Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help climate change

  • Landscape and visual impacts will be mitigated

  • Will create jobs

  • Will help the community financially


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Challenge this using Government, Regional and County guidance and Public Inquiry results

  • Planning Policy Statement 22 (PPS22) and landscape legislation

  • Regional Spatial Strategy

  • Cumbria’s targets for wind energy generation

  • CCC Wind Energy SPD

  • Local Plans


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CPRE Tranquillity Map – NW Region guidance and Public Inquiry results

‘TRANQUILLITY is the quality of calm experienced in places with mainly natural features and activities, free from disturbance from man…’

______________________________

‘Tranquil areas are places where a quality of calm can be experienced….’

‘Tranquillity is one of the countryside’s most valued assets and an important indicator of countryside quality’


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CUMBRIA’S LANDSCAPE DESIGNATIONS guidance and Public Inquiry results

NP – 35.0%

AONB – 9.7%

Heritage Coast – 2.7%

Under review – 7.1%

-------------------------------------------

Undesignated – 45.5%

Cumbria’s designated areas

so Cumbria’s targets are not reasonable


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Landscape Character Types guidance and Public Inquiry results

CCC Wind Energy SPD

Lowland

Coastal margins, estuary & marsh

Higher limestone


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CCC Map of Landscape Capacity guidance and Public Inquiry results

LANDSCAPE CAPACITY

Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document (Consultation Draft) - 2006

LOW – all scales generally inappropriate

LOW/MODERATE – small group (1-5 turbines)

MODERATE – small group, exceptionally a large group (9)

MODERATE to HIGH – up to a medium w/f (16-25)


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Visual Impact of wind turbines guidance and Public Inquiry resultsCriteria of the Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document, August 2006

  • Dominant up to 2.4km

  • Prominent 2.4 to 6km

  • Conspicuous 6 to 12 km

  • Apparent 12 to 18 km

  • Inconspicuous 18 to 30km


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Use Appeal decisions such as that at Tallentire Hill wind masts

  • In paragraph 13 the Inspector said;

    ‘This proposal would, I conclude, result in unacceptable harm to the local landscape in terms of its intrinsic quality and local distinctiveness, contrary to the objectives of the CLDJSP Policy 36’


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Inspectors Report on the Whinash Public Inquiry says; masts

3.29, p.34 - ‘As a whole, the Howgills provide expansive views across the most stimulating landscape in NW England with dramatic mountains of the Lake District forming a continuous skyline to the west’

3.25, p33 - ‘These impacts are not only the physical presence of the turbines but also their appearance, scale and materials of construction. The natural inclination of the eye is to focus on discordant, moving features when scanning the landscape



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Cumulative impacts masts

  • Berrier Hill (9)

  • Lamonby (5)

  • Grise (9)

    TOTAL = 23 turbines in the prominent to conspicuous range

  • Each 100+ metres (= 328+ feet) high

  • Will dominate many local villages (Graystoke, Penruddock, Newbiggin, Stainton, Blencow, Skelton, etc)

    as well as the iconic landcape of the Blencathra range


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    Three types of cumulative impact mastsCCC Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document, August 2006

    • Simultaneous combined visibility – when two or more schemes are visible from a viewpoint at the same time

    • Successive combined visibility – where the observer has to turn to see the successive schemes from the same viewpoint

    • Sequential visibility – where different schemes are seen as the observer moves through the countryside



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    In other words there will be masts

    significant simultaneous, successive, & sequential cumulative impacts


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    What the Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document says about Cumulative Impact;

    • Para 4.1, page 11 – ‘…It is likely that increasing significance will be attached to cumulative effects in the future’.

    • Para 4.3, page 12 – ‘…unacceptable cumulative effect may on its own provide sufficient justification to oppose a scheme which was otherwise acceptable’.


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    The view of English Heritage says about Cumulative Impact;

    • SETTING. ‘… consideration should be given to the impact of wind energy developments on the wider landscape setting and visual amenity of historic sites’

    • Consideration of the historic environment should include World Heritage Sites;……historic buildings and areas; designated landscapes; and the historic character of the wider landscape’.

      Wind Energy and the Historic Environment,

      English Heritage October 2005.

      CCC have recently voted to back the Lake District bid for World Heritage Site status


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    Job creation says about Cumulative Impact;

    House prices

    Value to the Community

    Noise

    Wildlife Impacts

    Hydrology and water courses

    History and local culture

    Telecommunications

    Aircraft

    Other Issues


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    Typical developer claims says about Cumulative Impact;

    • Will generate a lot of clean, green electricity

    • Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help climate change

    • Will create jobs

    • Will help the community financially


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    JOBS: says about Cumulative Impact;developers often justify by their proposals by quoting the Region Spatial Strategy, thus‘..Rural diversification is needed in upland areas and the more intensively farmed lowlands to create employment and generate economic prosperity’


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    DO W/Fs GENERATE JOBS? says about Cumulative Impact;

    • May be limited opportunities during the construction phase (up to 12 months)

    • Most wind farms remotely monitored and foreign owned

    • Maintenance jobs/servicing less than 2 people per 10 wind turbnies

      ANSWER THEREFORE IS NO


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    Typical developer claims says about Cumulative Impact;

    • Will generate a lot of clean, green electricity

    • Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help climate change

    • Will create jobs

    • Will help the community financially


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    Do wind farms depress house prices? says about Cumulative Impact;

    • Contentious area with conflicting surveys

    • Many anecdotal examples of sales falling through, etc

    • Legal ruling in a case in Cumbria – purchasers awarded 20% of the cost price in damages because they were not informed of a consent for a wind farm

    • Reductions in Council Tax of one band has been agreed in several areas where properties have been affected by wind farms

    • Results of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Report (2003) on the impact of wind farms on property values

    • In Denmark compensation is being considered


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    RICS Survey – some results says about Cumulative Impact;

    …….60% of RICS members in the NW reported a fall in house prices due to wind farm plans

    ‘…..More than half of those surveyors involved in residential property transactions affected by a wind farm…..reported that values were lower than for comparable properties that were unaffected’.

    ‘……The negative impact of wind farms on property values appears to decline over time…’.

    ‘…the three main reasons for this negative impact on property values were, (i) visual impact after completion, (ii) the fear of blight, and (iii) proximity

    Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Report, March 2004


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    Will it impact tourism? says about Cumulative Impact;

    • Report of the Small Business Council1 of the DTI says;

      ‘We argue that the current trend towards high levels of wind energy development onshore presents an unacceptable threat to rural businesses…’

    • ‘……The effects on the rural economy of onshore wind development should be a material consideration in the determination of application(s) and should form part of the cost-benefit analysis’

      Because the wind farm will dominate the area it seems inconceivable that it will not affect local tourism

      1. UK Energy Policy: The Small Business Perspective & Impact on the Rural Economy (7/2006)


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    VISITOR OPINION SURVEYS says about Cumulative Impact;

    A = % who would not return to place where w/fs are built

    B = Potential loss to the economy

    C = Potential loss of FTE jobs

    Source: UK Energy Policy: The Small Business Perspective & the Impact on the Rural Economy.

    DTI Small Business Council, June 2006, page 18


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    What about noise? says about Cumulative Impact;

    ETSU-R97 is out of date

    --------------------------------------------

    The first recommendation of the UK

    Noise Association Report said;

    ‘It would be prudent that no wind turbines should be sited closer than 1 mile away from the nearest dwellings. This is the distance the Academy of Medicine in Paris is recommending … until further studies are carried out’

    ‘Location, Location, Location: An investigation into wind farms and noise by the Noise Association’, July 2006


    Do wind farms have any benefits l.jpg
    Do wind farms have any benefits? says about Cumulative Impact;

    VERY FEW

    • CO2-free at the point of generation

    • The ‘fuel’ is free

    • Some people find them attractive

    • May generate some income for the locality from a ‘community fund’


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    How much will Berrier Hill earn? says about Cumulative Impact;

    At a load factor of 30% it would generate

    22.5 X 8760 X 30% = 59,130 MWh per year

    ------------------------------------------------------

    Wholesale price ~£30/MWh = £1,773,900

    ROCs are £48/MWh = £2,838,240

    CCL + payback fines is ~ £5/MWh = £295,650

    TOTAL =£4.91 millions/ year

    [= £122.75 million in 25 years]

    Community fund is likely to be about 0.5% of income


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    Do we need wind farms? NO says about Cumulative Impact;

    • New nuclearbuild likely

    • New clean coal power station announced this month on Teeside

    • Govt now taking realistic action on energy efficiency, transport, biomass, and local generation etc.

    • With offshore wind farms and applications in Scotland, Wales & England the targets are already exceeded (>20GW in the pipeline)

      EVEN WITHOUT THESE THE TARGETS

      CAN BE MET


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    CONCLUSIONS says about Cumulative Impact;

    • Electricity production is overstated

    • CO2 saving is greatly overstated

    • Close to National Parks & AONBs is the wrong place for wind farms

    • Significant cumulative impact will utterly dominate the immediate countryside

    • The moving blades will constantly disturb

    • Negative impact on house values, on tourism and the local economy

    • The wind farm is unlikely to be removed after 25 yrs, rather it will be repowered

    • Nearby houses may suffer from noise and flicker disturbance


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    Some things to do says about Cumulative Impact;

    • Set up an action group to formulate an objection

    • UNITE with other groups

    • Get support of the ‘Great and Good’

    • Identify and use key web sites for information

    • Identify all relevant planning policies

    • Research the site and the proposals

    • Show how the application is contrary to policy

    • Lobby all your councillors – Eden D.C. MUST refuse planning permission

    • Ensure all affected Parishes object

    • Leaflet all affected households

    • Write individual letters to the District Council

    • Alert caravan holders, guest houses, businesses


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    Sources of Information says about Cumulative Impact;

    1. Decisions of Planning Inquiries

    (a) Englandhttp://www.planningportal.gov.uk/england/genpub/en/1102936775950.html

    (b) Scotland

    http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Planning/Appeals/seiruSearch

    2. Renewable Energy Foundation web site for technical matters on UK wind

    www.ref.org.uk

    3. Country Guardian web site

    www.countryguardian.net

    4. National Wind Watch (UK and International daily news)

    www.wind-watch.org


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    This may be the right place for turbines says about Cumulative Impact;

    – Berrier Hill is not


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