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Causation and explanation in the social science

Causality  is the relationship between an event (the  cause ) and a second event (the effect ), where the second event is a consequence of the first X caused Y permits to: - Explain events - Predict - Take actions in order to modify the future

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Causation and explanation in the social science

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  1. Causality is the relationship between an event (the cause) and a second event (the effect), where the second event is a consequence of the first X caused Y permits to: - Explain events - Predict - Take actions in order to modify the future Three questions connected to the issue of causality: 1. Psychological and Linguistic What do we mean with causality? 2. Ontological What is causality? 3. Epistemological How do we discover when causality is operative? Causation and explanation in the social science

  2. Fourapproaches to causality: • Neo Humean • Constantassociation of causes and effects • Counterfactual • No effectif the cause isabsent in the mostsimilar world • Experimental • An effectafter the cause ismanipulated • Mechanism • Activities and processeslinkingcauses and effects Causation and explanation in the social science

  3. Eg. Democratic peace theory http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/DP.BACKSIDE.V.16.JPG Causation and explanation in the social science http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Pfafrich/Democratic_peace_theory http://www.stanford.edu/~tomz/working/TomzWeeks-2010-09.pdf

  4. Causation and explanation in the social science

  5. Causation and explanation in the social science

  6. Counterfactuals http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsQuNu4NBmQ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000 Causation and explanation in the social science http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000_(detail) http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics/fl2000.htm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Butterfly_Voters_View.jpg

  7. Psychological and linguistic analysis • 1700: cause as a “hook” tying effect to cause • Hume: Contiguity (time and place) and Precedence Causation and explanation in the social science Causation = Association ... B. Russel; K. Pearson More than association: lawlike statement; manipulability

  8. Ontological questions • What are these “things” – causes and effects – linked by causation? • The nature of causal relationship • Is it deterministic or probabilistic? Causation and explanation in the social science Epistemological questions How can we figure out that X really cause Y? How to rule out all the possible alternative explanations?

  9. Humean approach to causation Sufficiency Necessity INUS: A cause is an INSUFFICIENT but NECESSARY part of a condition which is itself UNNECESSARY but SUFFICIENT for the effect Plurality + Homogeneous pol. Cul. Two-party system PR + Small districts Lessons 1, 2, 3 Shortcomings 1, 2, 3 Effect Cause Cause Effect Causation and explanation in the social science

  10. Counterfactual approach • a. If X were to occur, then Y would occur • b. If X were not to occur, then Y would not occur either • Pros: • Specific causes not universal association • Efficacy of the cause • Cons: • How can you evaluate the truth of the couterfactual statement? • (the closest possible world) • Problems • Observational simmetry • Common cause Causation and explanation in the social science http://www.socpol.unimi.it/corsi/compol/materials/Palm%20beach.pdf X  Y ifNot X  Not Y istrue Y  X? IfNot Y  Not X is false Eg. Fragmentation and polarization

  11. Experimental approach An Agent is resposible for the manipulation Pros Avoids most of the methodological problems Cons Crashes against some ontological problems Problems Pre-emption http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ 2004_Madrid_train_bombings Explanation (effects of causes and not causes of effects) Causation and explanation in the social science The mechanism approach Definition Avoids some of the problems of the experimental approach Generalization?

  12. Causation and explanation in the social science

  13. Causation and explanation in the social science

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