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World War III. Predicting the Fate of the World System. I. The World System. Composed of states (see textbook) Characteristics Number of units – Figure 3.1 Increased Uncertainty Increased War 2. Distribution of Power Major vs. Minor Powers Concentration of Power

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world war iii

World War III

Predicting the Fate of the World System

i the world system
I. The World System
  • Composed of states (see textbook)
  • Characteristics
    • Number of units – Figure 3.1
      • Increased Uncertainty
      • Increased War

2. Distribution of Power

      • Major vs. Minor Powers
      • Concentration of Power

3. Political Organization

      • Anarchy vs. Hierarchy – Figure 4.2
b polarity and leadership

GREAT POWERS

MIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERS

GREAT POWERS

MIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERS

GREAT POWERS

MIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERS

b. Polarity and Leadership

UNIPOLAR WORLD

BIPOLAR WORLD

MULTIPOLAR WORLD

c alliances and polarization

3

3

5

5

5

5

3

9

3

9

2

2

5

5

5

5

5

5

c. Alliances and Polarization

WEAKLY POLARIZED

MULTIPOLAR

WORLD

STRONGLY POLARIZED

MULTIPOLAR

WORLD

economic demographic and military capabilities in the 21 st century
Economic, Demographic, and Military Capabilities in the 21st Century

* Some believe China overstates its GDP ** Somewhat higher if PPP data used

ii general wars in history
II. General Wars in History

A. Habsburgs and Universal Empire 1494-1559

  • Italian Wars (1494-1515): France vs. Spain (Habsburgs)  France vs. Holy League (Spain, England, Papal States, Venice)
  • French vs. Habsburgs (1521-1529, 1536-1538)
  • French and Ottomans vs. Habsburgs and England (1542-1546, 1552-1559)

b dutch independence 1568 1609
B. Dutch Independence (1568-1609)
  • 1570s – 1600s: Dutch Revolt vs. Hapsburgs (Spain)
  • 1585: England Intervenes vs. Hapsburgs  Spanish Armada (1588)  Stalemate
  • French Protestants Aid Dutch Rebels
  • 1590s: Spanish intervention in French religious wars
  • Spain defeated in France (1590s)
c thirty years war 1618 1648
C. Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648)
  • Protestants vs. Catholics
  • Stages:
    • Hapsburgs (Spain, Holy Roman Empire) vs. German Protestants
    • Fear of Hapsburg unity –> anti-Hapsburg intervention (France, England, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden)
    • Worldwide: Dutch vs. Portuguese and Spanish
  • Ending = Peace of Westphalia (book)
    • Hapsburg Power Limited (Territorial States)
    • French Gains  Collapse of Holy Roman Empire
    • Dutch naval dominance
d anglo dutch wars 1652 1679
D. Anglo-Dutch Wars (1652-1679)
  • England and France vs. Netherlands
  • Worldwide, but not very bloody
  • Dutch colonies lost
  • Renewal of Anglo-French competition
e war of the grand alliance 1688 1696
E. War of the Grand Alliance (1688-1696)
  • France invades Germany (1688)
  • League of Augsburg (Spain, Sweden, German states) opposes France
  • 1689: Grand Alliance formed vs. France (Austria, England, Netherlands, Spain, Germans)
  • “King William’s War” in America
  • French naval power destroyed, but France gains in Europe
f war of the spanish succession 1701 1714
F. War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714)
  • Hapsburg King of Spain dies – After partition fails, France claims throne
  • France, Spain, Bavaria, Portugal, Savoy vs. new Grand Alliance (England, Holland, Austria, other German states)
  • “Queen Anne’s War” in America
  • France agrees never to unite with Spain
  • English power increases dramatically
g war of the austrian succession 1739 1748
G. War of the Austrian Succession (1739-1748)
  • Hapsburg Heir to Austria dies  Succession crisis
  • German states attack Austria (Saxon, Bavarian, Silesian Wars)
    • France aids German states  Franco-Austrian War (1744-1748)
    • Britain, Netherlands, Austria vs. France and Spain
  • “King George’s War” in America
  • France fails in objectives; Hapsburgs win
h seven years war 1756 1763
H. Seven Years’ War (1756-1763)
  • French-English rivalry meets Austrian-Prussian competition
    • France and Native American allies attack English colonies (1755)
    • Prussia declares neutrality in French-English war
    • France responds by aiding Austria against Prussia
    • Alliances: France, Austria, Russia, Saxony, Sweden, Spain vs. Prussia, Britain, Hanover
  • More global than previous wars
    • French and Indian War in America
    • War in India and Southeast Asia
  • Results
    • France loses Quebec, India and other areas to Britain
    • Austria loses in Europe
    • Prussia becomes Great Power
    • Expenses  American Revolution and renewed French-British war
i wars of the french revolution and napoleon 1792 1815
I. Wars of the French Revolution and Napoleon (1792-1815)
  • War of the First Coalition (1792-1798): England, Spain, Austria, Prussia, Sardinia vs. France
    • Reaction to executions, threat of revolution
    • France wins in Continental Europe, but England keeps fighting
  • War of the Second Coalition (1798-1802): England, Russia, Austria, Turkey vs. France
    • Triggered by French gains in Italy, Germany
    • Rise of Napoleon
  • French-British War (1803-1805)
3 war of the third coalition 1805 1807
3. War of the Third Coalition (1805-1807)
  • Britain, Russia, Austria, Sweden vs. France and Spain
  • Austria surrenders unconditionally
  • French-Spanish fleet destroyed (Trafalgar)
  • Napoleon gains Poland, most of Germany. Forced alliance with Austria.
4 continued napoleonic wars
4. Continued Napoleonic Wars
  • Peninsular War (1807-1812): Napoleon vs. Portugal, Britain, and Spanish guerillas
  • Austro-French War (1809): Austria defeated again
  • Franco-Russian War (1812): Severe defeat for Napoleon
  • War of 1812 (to 1814): United States vs. Britain
5 allies vs napoleon 1812 1815
5. Allies vs. Napoleon (1812-1815)
  • 1812-1814: Napoleon defeated; return to 1793 status quo
  • b. Napoleon’s Return (1815): France defeated, punished
6 results
6. Results
  • British supremacy at sea
  • Congress of Vienna:
    • Russia, Prussia gain territory
    • Austria gains in Germany and Italy
    • “Congress System”
  • “Eastern Question”
j crimean war 1854 1856
J. Crimean War (1854-1856)
  • Russia vs. Turkey  Intervention by France, Britain, Piedmont-Sardinia
  • Limited War: Crimea and Baltic coasts
  • Results
    • Russia concedes before war becomes general
    • Concert of Europe
    • Power vacuum  Rise of Prussia (Wars against Austria and France, German unification)
k world war i 1914 1919
K. World War I (1914-1919)
  • Prewar: Multipolar but Polarized system
    • Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy) vs. Triple Entente (Britain, Russia, France)
  • Threat of Hapsburg collapse after assassination  A-H vs. Serbia  Russia vs. A-H  Germany vs. Russia  Germany vs. France  Germany vs. Britain
4 results see p 28 map 16 in atlas
4. Results (See p.28/Map 16 in Atlas)
  • Final collapse of Hapsburgs
  • End of “Eastern Question”
  • Destruction of German naval challenge
  • Relative decline of Europe
  • League of Nations
l world war ii 1939 1945
L. World War II (1939-1945)
  • Germany and Italy vs. Britain and France (1939-1941)
  • Japan vs. China (1937-1941)
  • Soviet and American entry (1941)

Allies (USA, USSR, Britain, France, China)

vs. Axis (Germany, Italy, Japan)

  • Results (See p.29/Map 16 in Atlas)
    • Five victorious “Great Powers” but only two superpowers
    • Beginning of Cold War – and “Long Peace”
    • Nuclear weapons
iii the war that wasn t the cold war
III. The War that Wasn’t: The Cold War
  • US vs. USSR: The world chooses sides (see p.30 / Map 17 in Atlas)
b impact of nuclear weapons
B. Impact of Nuclear Weapons
  • Destructiveness of a single weapon
example 100 kt surface blast fort hood main gate
Example: 100 KT Surface Blast, Fort Hood Main Gate
  • 100 KT = larger than ordinary fission bomb, smaller than largest Russian weapons
slide29

15 psi: Virtually all dead

5 psi: 50% dead, 45% injured

2 psi: 5% dead, 45% injured)

1 psi: 25% injured

example 100 kt surface fallout
Example: 100 KT Surface: Fallout

1 hour: Lethal

2 hours: Lethal

3 hours: Lethal

4 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal

5 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal

Possible Zone of Sickness

b impact of nuclear weapons1
B. Impact of Nuclear Weapons
  • Destructiveness of a single weapon
  • Cold War arsenals:
c nuclear winter
c. “Nuclear Winter”

Controversial theory condemned as “defeatist” by Cold Warriors

c nuclear crises
C. Nuclear Crises
  • Iran 1946
  • Berlin Blockade 1948-1949
  • Korea 1950-1953
  • Quemoy-Matsu 1954 and 1958
  • Berlin Wall 1961
  • Cuban Missile Crisis 1962
  • Vietnam 1969
  • October War 1973
d pervasiveness of us soviet competition
D. Pervasiveness of US-Soviet Competition
  • Popular culture
  • Fallout shelters and civil defense
  • Absurd weapons and overly nuke-friendly scientists
iii theories of world war
III. Theories of World War
  • Long Cycle of Leadership
    • Phases of the cycle
      • World Power – Single dominant state with global reach
      • Delegitimation – Other states recover from the global war, seek increased influence
      • Deconcentration – Challengers and the leader build coalitions
      • Global War – The new leader is decided, as one state emerges with dominant global reach
2 global reach
2. Global Reach
  • Naval power is key: definition changes over time
3 evidence cycles of war
3. Evidence: Cycles of War?
  • Deaths in major power wars:
4 predictions
4. Predictions
  • Global war: 2030
b power transition
B. Power Transition
  • Assumptions

a. System Level: World is Hierarchic

b dyad level challenger vs dominant power

War by Challenger to change SQ

Preemptive war by Dom

Challenger

Power

Dominant

t

Unstable

b. Dyad Level: Challenger vs. Dominant Power
c state level what creates transitions
c. State Level: What creates transitions?
  • Existence of challenger: status quo evaluations
  • Rise of challenger: development curve
2 measuring power
2. Measuring Power
  • GNP  Ultimately reduces to population!
  • Relative Political Capacity – Taxes
c hegemonic stability theory
C. Hegemonic Stability Theory
  • Assumptions: Primarily Economic Theory
    • Depressions  Major Wars
    • International Economic Cooperation Prevents Depressions
assumptions
Assumptions
  • Public Goods Theory:
    • World Economy as “Public Good:” Cannot exclude countries from existing in a prosperous world
    • Problem: World economic stability costs money (currency stability, free trade/lost jobs, military intervention, international law, etc.) – but no one wants to pay since their contributions won’t make a difference!
    • Free Riding: Enjoying benefits of stable world economy without paying costs
  • Hegemony: When a single state…
    • CAN pay the costs of world economic stability
    • MUST pay those costs or stability won’t be provided
    • is WILLING to pay those costs because the benefits to itself outweigh the costs
2 historical applicability
2. Historical Applicability
  • Theory doesn’t apply before 18th century, according to HST proponents
    • Why?
growth of world real gdp per person

1,000%

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

–100

11th

12th

13th

14th

15th

16th

17th

18th

19th

20th

21st

Century

Growth of World Real GDP per Person
3 evidence1
3. Evidence
  • Free Trade
    • Napoleonic Wars: Challenge to British Hegemony (Continental System) – Consistent
    • 1815-1840: Increased Protectionism: Corn Laws, etc – Inconsistent
    • 1840s-1850s: Rise of free trade in Britain -- Consistent
    • 1860s-1880s: Rise of free trade in Europe, i.e. Cobden-Chevalier Treaty (1860) -- Consistent
v free trade and us hegemony
v. Free Trade and US Hegemony

AVERAGE AVERAGE

US TARIFF WORLD

YEAR RATE TARIFF

-------- --------- ----------

1940 36% 40%

1946 25% --

1950 13% 25%

1960 12% 17%

1970 10% 13%

1975 6% --

1984 5% 5%

iv can world war be avoided
IV. Can World War Be Avoided?
  • Nuclear weapons? Israel 1973…
  • Interdependence?

"International finance has become so interdependent and so interwoven with trade and industry that ... political and military power can in reality do nothing.... These little recognized facts, mainly the outcome of purely modern conditions (rapidity of communication creating a greater complexity and delicacy of the credit system), have rendered the problems of modern international politics profoundly and essentially different from the ancient."

interdependence
Interdependence?
  • Exports as % of GDP
    • 1913: 13%
    • 1992: 14%
  • FDI as % of GDP
    • 1914: 11%
    • 1993: 11%
  • British-German trade was high
    • Lloyd’s insured Germany’s ships!
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