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Western Air Quality Study: Modeling Update & Emissions Projections

This study focuses on updating air quality modeling and emissions projections in the western United States. It includes tasks such as source apportionment modeling, project management, and completing 2011b MPE analysis. The study aims to improve understanding of air quality trends in the region.

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Western Air Quality Study: Modeling Update & Emissions Projections

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  1. Western Air Quality Study (WAQS)Intermountain Data Warehouse (IWDW) WAQS Workplan and Modeling Update University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) Ramboll-Environ (Environ) December 15, 2015 IWDW-WAQS Technical Committee Call

  2. Summary • Review workplan and deliverables • Modeling Update • Simulation 2011b CAMx and CMAQ MPE • Emissions projections and simulation 2025 • Next Steps

  3. WAQS Revised Phase II SoW (Sep’15) • Original WAQS Phase II SoW • Task 1: 2011 CMAQ (completed) • Task 2: SA Modeling (continue) • Task 3: Model Improve (completed) • Task 4: 2011 Vis/Dep (completed) • Task 5: 2014 Plan (completed) • Task 6: 2014 WRF (completed) • Task 7: 2014 EI (de-obligate) • Task 8: 2014 AQ (de-obligate) • Task 9: Winter Ozone (completed) • Task 10: O&G EI (de-obligate) • Task 11: Management (continue) • New WAQS Phase II SoW • Task 12: 2011b MPE • Task 13: CMAQ 2011b • Task 14: 2025 SMOKE • Task 15: 2025 CAMx • Task 16: 2025 CMAQ • Task 17: IWDW Support • Underlined Tasks in Revised SoW • Bold Underlined Tasks Currently Active

  4. Revised WAQS Phase II SoW • Task 2: Source Apportionment Modeling • Objectives: To quantify emission source/receptor relationships in western U.S. using 2011 database • Status (Dec 15, 2015): • Geographic (State-Specific) O3 and PM SA sing 2011a (completed) • Source Category-Specific O3 and PM SA using 2011b (completed) • SA Visualization Tool: Draft SA Vis Plan (Apr 2015); Comments on Draft Vis Plan (June 2015); RtC Document (Aug 2015); Final SA Vis Plan (Sep 2015) • Next Steps (Dec 2015 – Mar 2016): • Update SA Visualization Tool and Load Geographic/Source Data (Dec 2015) • Beta Testing of Revised SA Vis Tool (Jan 2016) • Revisions SA Vis Tool (Jan-Feb 2016) • Plan for Detailed 4 km SA Modeling (Jan 2016) • Detailed SA Modeling (Jan-Feb 2016) • Load Data in Vis Tool and Post to IWDW (Feb-Mar 2016)

  5. Revised WAQS Phase II SoW • Task 11: Project Management • Objectives: Conference calls, meetings, monthly reports, contracts and manage study • Status: On-Going • Weekly Conference Calls • Technical Committee Conference Calls and Meetings • Monthly Progress Report and Invoices • Day-to-day Project Management at Ramboll Environ and UNC

  6. Revised WAQS Phase II SoW • Task 12: Complete 2011b MPE Analysis • Objective: Finish CAMx 2011b MPE and incorporate CMAQ 2011b MPE • Status: On-going • Completed CAMx and CMAQ 2011b 36/12/4 km Base Case and MPE Products • Load 2011b MPE products in IWDW (Oct-Dec 2015) • Load 2011b EI in IWDW Emissions Review Tool (Nov 2015) • Next Steps: • Draft MPE Report and Wiki (Dec 2015) • Present 2011b MPE Results TechComm (Jan 12, 2016) • Data transfer to IWDW (Nov 2015 – Jan 2016)

  7. Revised WAQS Phase II SoW • Task 13: CMAQ 2011b 36/12/4 km Base Case • Objective: Perform CMAQ 2011b 36, 12 and 4 km base case and MPE • Status: • Completed CMAQ 2011b 36, 12 and 4 km Run (Dec 2015) • Next Steps: • CMAQ MPE products (Dec 2015) • Integrate in 2011b MPE Addendum and Wiki (Jan 2016) • Present results at Jan 12, 2016 TechComm Meeting

  8. Revised WAQS Phase II SoW • Task 14: 2011b-based 2025 SMOKE EI Modeling • Objective: Process 2025 emissions using SMOKE • Status: • Processed most 2025 emissions sectors (Dec 2015) • Next Steps: • Update 2020 O&G for Denver-Julesburg Basin (Dec, 2015) • RAQC/CDPHE with Operators developed updated O&G EI for D-J Basin • VOC in 2011 ~100,000 TPY vs. 2017 ~50,000 TPY • 3SAQS 2020 VOC projection from 2 years ago: ~300,000 TPY • Use new RAQC/CDPHE information to update 2020 D-J O&G EI • O&G Task defunded so use resources from Task 2 SrcApp • CAMx/CMAQ-ready 2025 emission inputs (Dec 2015) • EI Trends Report Addendum (Jan 2016) • Transfer FY EI to IWDW (Jan 2016) • 2025 Emissions discussed at January 12, 2016 TechComm Meeting

  9. Revised WAQS Phase II SoW • Task 15: CAMx 2025 36/12/4 km Modeling • Objective: Perform CAMx 2025 Modeling • Next Steps: • CAMx 2025 36/12/4 km Run (Feb 2016) • 2025 Modeling Report and Wiki (Mar 2016) • Transfer 2025 CAMx to IWDW (Mar 2016) • Task 16: CMAQ FY 36/12/4 km Modeling • Objective: Perform CMAQ 2025 Modeling • Next Steps: • CMAQ 2025 36, 12 and 4 km Runs (Feb 2016) • 2025 Modeling Report and Wiki (Mar 2016) • Transfer 2025 CMAQ to IWDW (Mar 2016)

  10. Revised WAQS Phase II SoW • Task 17: IWDW Support • Objective: Provide air quality modeling expertise support to IWDW • Status: On-going • Weekly IWDW operation conference calls • Additional topical conference calls • IWDW data support • IWDW programming and documentation support • Data storage and hardware

  11. WAQS 2011b Simulations and MPESimulation Status • CAMx and CMAQ Simulations Complete • Analyses focusing on 12-km and 4-km domains • Site-level performance at key monitors in CO, UT, WY, and NM • Comparison between 2011a and 2011b simulations • Extended MPE plots available at the IWDW

  12. WAQS 2011b Simulations and MPEOperational Statistics • Models • CAMx v6.10 (CB6r2): 32 cores x hybrid OpenMP/MPI • CMAQ v5.0.2 (CB05): 32 cores x MPI (mvapich2) • SMOKE v3.5.1 • Run Time (36/12/4km x annual simulation) • CAMx: 40 days (“wall clock”) • CMAQ: 69.5 days (“wall clock”) • Output Data Volumes (36/12/4km x annual simulation) • CAMx: 8.8 Tb • CMAQ: 20 Tb

  13. WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: All AQS sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE • Comparing 2011a/b for CMAQ/CAMx • All simulations within performance goals in all months • CAMx lower bias in Jan-Mar, CMAQ lower bias in the summer and December • Performance is similar for each model between 2011a and 2011b

  14. WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: All CASTNet sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE • CAMx has lower bias in the first half of the year and then both CAMx and CMAQ are similar through the rest of the year • On average, CMAQ estimates lower O3 concentrations than CAMx across the domain

  15. WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: Colorado AQS Sites DRAFT DO NOT CITE • Although CAMx estimates higher O3 on average, CMAQ estimates higher peaks

  16. WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: Utah AQS Sites DRAFT DO NOT CITE • CAMx doing better in the winter than CMAQ. • Slightly lower winter O3 in Base11b than Base11a

  17. WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: Wyoming AQS Sites DRAFT DO NOT CITE • Q-Q plot distorts the CMAQ performance at the upper tail of observations by pairing a summer ozone concentration with the winter ozone observations.

  18. WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: New Mexico AQS Sites DRAFT DO NOT CITE • All models are estimating too much O3 in the last 7 months of the year; these biases are highlighted in the model performance at the NM AQS sites.

  19. WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: Rocky Flats North, CO DRAFT DO NOT CITE • Ozone season performance • Skill plots highlight the ability of the models to simulate NAAQS violations • CAMx has more “hits” and less “misses” than CMAQ, but also more “false alarms”

  20. WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: Rocky Flats North, CO DRAFT DO NOT CITE • Ozone season performance • Diurnal and DOW plots • Both models generally capture the diurnal profile of O3 • Excessive titration in afternoon rush hour • CAMx captures the day of week profile better than CMAQ

  21. WAQS Simulation Base11bMDA8 Ozone Performance: Gothic, CO DRAFT DO NOT CITE • CAMx is estimating too much ozone at Gothic • Both models fail to estimate any of the NAAQS violations in May-June possibly due to missed LR transport/STE events

  22. WAQS Simulation Base11bHourly NO2 Performance: All AQS sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE • High NO2 biases are reduced in Base11b at AQS sites across the 4-km domain • NO2 is still overestimated in most months • Domain-wide NO2 biases are lower in CMAQ than CAMx

  23. WAQS Simulation Base11bHourly CO Performance: All AQS sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE • CO performance is similar in Base11a vs Base11b • High winter CO positive biases in CAMx persist in Base11b

  24. WAQS Simulation Base11bDaily Max Total PM2.5 Performance: All sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE CSN IMPROVE • Total PM2.5 is lower in simulation Base11b, leading to improvement in overestimates seen in Base11a. • Zeroing the dust boundary conditions reduce the total PM2.5 in all months and penalizes the rural model performance outside of the winter months.

  25. WAQS Simulation Base11bWinter PM2.5 Performance: CSN sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE CAMx B11a vs B11b B11b CAMx vs CMAQ • Winter OC at urban CSN sites reduced in Base11b, leading to improvement over Base11a; model still over estimates OC. • Dust reductions improve overall CSN performance in Base11b vs Base11a • CAMx and CMAQ Base11b performance are similar

  26. WAQS Simulation Base11bSpring PM2.5 Performance: IMPROVE sites 4-km Domain DRAFT DO NOT CITE CAMx B11a vs B11b B11b CAMx vs CMAQ • Significant dust (PM Other) reductions improve overall CSN performance in Base11b vs Base11a, although now underestimating dust, NO3, and OC • CAMx and CMAQ Base11b performance are similar

  27. WAQS Simulation Base11bTotal PM2.5 Performance: Canyonlands, UT DRAFT DO NOT CITE • Overadjusted the dust BC error • NO3 and NH4 are too low in the spring and summer

  28. WAQS Simulation Base11bTotal PM2.5 Performance: Bandelier, NM DRAFT DO NOT CITE • Overadjusted the dust BC error • NO3 and NH4 are too low in the spring and summer

  29. WAQS Simulation Base11bRegional Haze: 20% Worst Days DRAFT DO NOT CITE • CAMx vs CMAQ on 20% worst days • CAMx has too much sea salt • Models both low for OC, NO3, and SO4

  30. WAQS Simulation Base11bRegional Haze: 20% Worst Days comparison to Base11a DRAFT DO NOT CITE • CAMx Base11b extinctions decreased relative to Base11a, driven by SO4 and soil: performance degrades in Base11b • CMAQ Base11b extinctions increased relative to Base11a, driven by organic PM: performance improves in Base11b

  31. WAQS Simulation Base11b MPE Next Steps • Finish the MPE report by January 2016 • Review the model performance at January 12, 2016 Technical Committee meeting • Examples of MPE shown here, what else does the Technical Committee want to see for an MPE summary at the January meeting? • Release the platform in January 2016

  32. Emissions Projections Review Objectives and background • Review summaries of state-level by species and emission source categories • Review schedule for future year modeling

  33. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions VOC CO VOC (no biogenics) NOx

  34. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 SO2 CH4 NH3

  35. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions Methane 90% of the UT Area O&G CH4 is from pneumatic devices and dehydrators 97% of the CA Nonpoint CH4 is from landfills

  36. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 SO2 CH4 (no O&G) NH3

  37. Denver-Julesburg Basin Inventories • Recent updates to the D-J Basin inventory by CDPHE and RAQC show significant differences with the NEI and 3SAQS inventories, particularly with the projected VOC emissions

  38. 2011 vs. 2025 Emissions SO2 Big reductions from base to future in EGU Point SO2 in several states

  39. WAQS Project Timeline JAN 2011b Platform Release MAR 2025 Platform Release SEP-OCT 2011b CMAQ Modeling MAY-AUG 2014a WRF DEC-FEB 2025 CMAQ and CAMx JUL-AUG 2011b CAMx Modeling OCT-NOV 2011b MPE, 2025 SMOKE Apr 2016 Jul 2015 2016 DEC 2015 Technical Comm Call: Project Status SEP 2015 Technical Comm Meeting Project End JAN 2016 Technical Comm Meeting: Review 2011b MPE JUL 2015 Technical Comm Call OCT 2015 Technical Comm Call: Emissions Projections

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