Teaching a Course on Government Statistics in a University Statistics Department

1. Teaching a Course on Government Statistics in a University Statistics Department Patrick Murphy University College Dublin Ireland

2. Outline of Talk 1. Introduction 2. Background: Department & Students 3. Course Development 4. The Course: Content 5. The Course: Presentation 6. Assessment 7. Students’ View 8. Lessons Leaned/Alterations 9. Conclusions

3. Introduction

4. STATISTICIANS: Who are we? • ACADEMIC Statisticians • OFFICIAL Statisticians • INDUSTRY Statisticians Introduction

5. COLLABORATION? • Academics <--> Industry • Academics <--> Official Statisticians 8 Academics 7 have collaborations with Industry UCD Statistics: Introduction

6. Fe26 “Statistics” • “Facts for the use of the State” • “State Arithmetic” Definition now slightly IRONIC Introduction

7. Graduate Employment • National Statistical Offices are significant Employers of Statisticians Ireland: Central Statistics Office • Small NSO • But largest employer of Statisticians in Ireland • >70 Permanent Statisticians Consider... Introduction

8. Training for such Graduates • Statistics, Mathematics • Economics, Social Science, Politics • What about specific training in Official Statistics? Introduction

9. Graduate Training continued... 1999 Web search of Universities revealed • University of Southampton, UK MSc in Official Statistics • Monash University, Australia Later I discovered • University of Ljubljana • University of Helsinki Introduction

10. Real Official Statistics Training • “On the Job” • From International Organisations • Training of European Statisticians TES Institute • International Monetary Fund Introduction

11. Background:Department & Students

12. University College Dublin • Largest University in Ireland • >20,000 Students • Department of Statistics formed in 1986 • 8 full time Academic members Background

13. Statistics’ Students Level 1 Statistics: • Approximately 120 Students • Arts • 3 years combined with another subject • Science • 4 year single honours degree or • 4 year joint honours with another subject Degree through Arts or Science Faculties Background

14. Final Year Undergraduate Courses included: • Time Series • Survey Sampling • Design and Analysis of Experiments • Survival Analysis • Bio-statistics • Actuarial Statistics • Regression Theory • Non-Parametric Statistics Background

15. Higher Diploma in Statistics • One year graduate diploma • Conversion course for graduates of cognate disciplines e.g. Psychology, Politics, Economics, Computer Science M.Sc., M.A. • One year taught Masters Degree • Available to Students with a good honours degree in Statistics, Mathematics or Actuarial & Financial Studies Background

16. Course Development

17. Course Development 1: Goals • To provide students with an appreciation of the extent to which Official Statistics pervades the lives of citizens of a state • To describe the process by which data are collected, processed, analysed and disseminated by an NSI • To introduce some techniques used extensively in NSI’s that are not taught in other courses in the Department of Statistics Course Development

18. Course Development 2: Logistics • Students: • Final Year Undergraduate • Graduate Diploma • Masters Degree • One-Semester course • 24 hours of lectures • 6 extra computer practical hours Course Development

19. Course Development 3: Problems • Existing Courses: Time Series, Survey Sampling • Arts Students may be studying • Economics, Politics, Sociology etc. • Science Students • unfamiliar with these subjects • 1999 Web Search revealed few, if any, similar courses • Textbook? • My own background in CSO Course Development

20. Course Development 4: Course Materials • National Accounts UN System of National Accounts Eurostat - European System of Accounts • Balance of Payments IMF - Balance of Payments Manual, Compilation Guide and Textbook Books used by official statisticians Course Development

21. Course Development 4: Course Materials • That Was Then, This is Now - Change in Ireland 1949-1999 • Published by the CSO • Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland • Articles by TP Linehan Ex Director General CSO Other Irish official statistics sources Course Development

22. Course Development 4: Course Materials For Example: • Index Number Theory • Databases Some parts of the course were easy to prepare Course Development

23. The Course

24. Course Content 1. History • Domesday book • IMF, Eurostat • Ireland 1800 - 2000 • CSO • Background reading on UK The Course

25. Course Content 2. Legal and Institutional • Statistics Act in Ireland, NSB • International Organisations • IMF, OECD, ILO, Eurostat etc. • CSO as an example of an NSI Including Processing of statistics • Non-response, Missing data, Quality Control, Confidentiality, CAPI, Edifact The Course

26. Course Content 3. The Statistics • National Accounts • Balance of Payments • External Trade • Demography • Agriculture • Building • Buisness register • Vital Statistics • Data Bank • Industry • Labour Market • Prices • Retail Sales • Services • Transport & Tourism • Non CSO data The Course

27. Course Content 4. Index Numbers • History of Cost of Living Indices • Laspeyres & Paasche • Substitution Bias • Fisher Index • Chain method • CPI calculation - Household Budget Survey • Purchasing Power Parities The Course

28. Course Content 5. Databases • RDBMS • Normalisation, SQL etc... • MS ACCESS The Course

29. Course Content 6. Additional Topics Guest Lecturers to reinforce relevance of official statistics • Regional Accounts • CPI for Pensioners The Course

30. Presentation of the Course • Content not Mathematical but Discursive • Statistics Students not used to this • Lot of material covered in class • Wanted to encourage interaction in class • Course home page on W W W • Course notes on web as PDF files • Links to external sites, NSI’s etc. Hence... The Course

31. Assessment

32. Course Assessment • 30% Continuous Assessment • 70% Final Exam • Continuous Assessment consisted of projects to be completed by students in groups of two or three • Six weeks to complete • Oral Presentation • Written Report Assessment

33. Projects in Year One • Unemployment Statistics • Agricultural Accounts • BOP40 - Balance of Payments Survey • Tourism Statistics • Consumer Price Index and Household Budget Survey Projects were based on CSO statistics Assessment

34. Projects in Year One • Descriptions of concepts measured • Descriptions of data collection procedures • International comparisons • Students should also act as consumers and analyse recent statistics Content Assessment

35. Students’ Views

36. Students’ Views • Course unlike others in Statistics Department • Arts students acclimatised faster • Reaction generally positive • Some students very interested in area which was new to them • Two students chose careers in Official Statistics directly because of this course • 3 science students didn’t perform well Student’s Views

37. Lessons Learned/Alterations

38. Lessons Learned/Alterations • Course content changed slightly • Examination format changed • Projects revised to be more relevant to daily life • New projects did not concentrate on one are but combined many to answer a question Report writing was flawed in first year so guidelines were introduced for second year Lessons

39. Projects in Year Two • Project 1. Economists warn that the Irish economy is in danger of overheating. They cite the recent increase in inflation as one piece of evidence. Discuss, using as many sources as you can find to back up your opinion. Lessons

40. Projects in Year Two • Project 2. Using at least five different indicators compare Ireland’s economic performance since 1990 with the rest of the world and explain why the Irish economy has become known as “The Celtic Tiger” Lessons

41. Projects in Year Two • Project 3. There is currently a housing crisis in this country. Construction firms are booming but a few years ago builders couldn’t find jobs. Using as many official statistics as you can, describe the extent of this situation and explain what you think is its cause. Lessons

42. Project Guidelines • Size 15 pages 12pt font • No photocopied material • One page Introduction & Conclusion • International Comparisons • Remainder of 15 pages discretionary • Appendix 1: • Methodologies & Sources used by the NSI’s • Appendix 2: Sources for report • No Plagiarism, Complete Group Participation, Deadline Lessons

43. 2003 • Changes in UCD caused cancellation of this course Future • Likely amalgamation of Survey Sampling course with this Official Statistics course Lessons

44. Conclusions

45. Conclusions • Goals met • Students have better understanding of • work done by official statisticians • how the results of that pervade society • Textbook ??? • Graduates employed in official statistics • Guest lecturers

46. Conclusions • Conference on Official and Public Statistics • Centre for Official Statistics at UCD? • Recommend similar courses elsewhere FOR MORE INFO... Patrick.Murphy@UCD.IE

47. Hopefully this hasn’t been too boring...