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Sensitivity Testing with the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model (SWIM2)

Session 709: Integrated Land Use and Transport Models in Practice. Sensitivity Testing with the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model (SWIM2). 88 th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting January 2009, Washington DC Presenters: Brian Gregor/ODOT & Tara Weidner/PB. Outline. Background

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Sensitivity Testing with the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model (SWIM2)

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  1. Session 709: Integrated Land Use and Transport Models in Practice Sensitivity Testing with the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model (SWIM2) 88th Transportation Research Board Annual MeetingJanuary 2009, Washington DC Presenters: Brian Gregor/ODOT & Tara Weidner/PB

  2. Outline • Background • Oregon SWIM2 • Calibration • Prep for Model Application • Results • Scenario 1: Increased Highway Capacity • Scenario 2+3: Increased Driving Costs (4 and 10-fold) • Concluding remarks

  3. Acknowledgements Sponsorship: Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) Agency Lead: ODOT Transportation Planning Analysis Unit (TPAU). Funding: Federal Highway Administration. Consultant Team: Parsons Brinckerhoff lead HBA Specto Inc. EcoNorthwest Special thanks: Alex Bettinardi of ODOT

  4. Why Integrated Models in Oregon? • 1995 OMIP • Oregon Modeling Improvement Program • 1996 TLUMIP • Transportation Land Use Model Integration Project • New state and federal mandates in early 90's required entire system view • ODOT modelers wanted to remain relevant in Oregon regulatory and policy environment

  5. The Oregon Path… Application-driven research SWIM1 Model • TRANUS/Oregon (2000) • WV Forum (2001) • East/Central OR Fwy (2001) • Bridge Options Study (2002) • Newberg Bypass (2004) • OR Transportation Plan (2005) SWIM2 Model • OR Amtrak Ridership (2008/2009) • OR Climate Change (2009) • OR Freight Study (2009/2010) • MPO & Co. Connection (2009/2010) • Assembled (2004-2005) • Calibrated (2008)

  6. Aggregate/Equilibrium Micro-simulation Next Time Period Feedback Oregon Statewide Integrated Model (SWIM2) Economy Employment by Industry Construction Totals Production Totals Spatial Models Production Interaction Land Development Space Inventory Synthetic Population HH Labor Labor Flows Commodity Flows External Transport Person Transport Goods Transport Transport Models OD Trip Tables Assignment

  7. SWIM2 Calibration Challenges: • Multi-dimensional targets, inconsistencies, different years, varying confidence levels • e.g. Commodity flow data, floor space price data, floor space quantity data • Unavailable inputs must be synthesized, adds errors • e.g. Floor space quantity data As a result, more emphasis placed on behavioral response than ability to tightly match all targets

  8. Iterative SWIM2 Calibration Process • Stage 1: Estimate module parameters where data exists • Stage 2: Calibrate individual sub-models in isolation • Stage 3: Calibrate full model, baseyear + over time including Sensitivity Tests of likely policy scenarios • 20-years, in 3-year increments • unrealistically large change, to identify direction of change • “proof-of-concept” scenarios test behavioral response to likely policy levers

  9. Preparations for Model Application Prepare ODOT staff to perform policy analysis • Knowledge Transfer • Ongoing Agency Staff Training • Evaluate Model Variability (micro-simulation) • User Interface Tools • Model Runner System GUI (scenarios, start runs) • Output Processing tools (automate, compress) • File Management tools (model files, output processing) • Computer Cluster • Purchase Hardware • Backups/archiving processes

  10. SWIM2 Geographic Coverage • Oregon Activity: • 3.7M pop; 1.8M jobs • 6 MPOs 2,950 alphazones 519 betazones

  11. Scenario 1: Increased Hwy Capacity

  12. Increased Capacity: 2024 Household Change (vs. Reference) Portland Salem Corvallis Bend Eugene Rogue Valley

  13. Increased Capacity: Households EUG Significant Growth at South terminus with improved Portland connection Total Households PDX Some Growth mid-valley CORV SAL RV Less Growth outside valley BEND

  14. Increased Capacity: 2024 Floorspace Change

  15. Increased Capacity: 2024 Transport Results • Truck Trip lengths increase, but times decline (7%) • Auto Tour lengths, times, and mode do not change

  16. Scenario 2+3: Increased Driving Costs

  17. Increased Costs (10-fold): More Detail… Portland Salem Corvallis Eugene

  18. Increased Costs: MPO Density Curves Proportion of MPO Land Area Persons Per Acre Regional Centers densities gain 20%+ Other areas 0-10% density gains

  19. Increased Costs (10-fold): Employment SAL Centralization to 3 Regional Centers RV Total Employment Eugene gets Salem overflow BEND EUG PDX CORV Non MPO areas lose growth NON-MPO Portland urban inertia overshadowed by Salem’s central location

  20. Increased Costs (4-fold): 2024 Floorspace Results Floorspace created in new regional centers. High prices reflect difficulty in meeting residential needs. Nonresidential floorspace changes muted.

  21. Increased Costs: 2024 Transport Results • Truck Trip lengths and times decline (5-10%) • Auto Tour lengths and times decline (30-40%), more sensitive • Significant person mode shift

  22. 2024 Person Trips by Selected Modes Not all MPO offer Transit Held current service levels

  23. Concluding Remarks Success!! ‘Extreme’ scenarios accommodated Good direction & magnitude in all components (activity, land development, transport) Understandable geographical patterns Internally consistent, price signals working Transition to Agency & Policy Application …well underway

  24. Some challenges remain… Note: Updated TRB paper on ODOT website http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TPAU/references.shtml#Statewide_Model Assumption of fixed economy/halo effects File management Summarizing Outputs/Improving Visualization Runtimes/convergence Additional Scenario Testing…

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