Simulation of 20 th Century North American Hydroclimate Variability by the Drought Working Group Models: A Quick First Look. Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas Sumant Nigam. University of Maryland. March 8, 2008. Objective.
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Simulation of 20th Century North American Hydroclimate Variability by the Drought Working Group Models:A Quick First Look
University of Maryland
March 8, 2008
Assess capabilities of the DWG atmospheric models in simulating seasonal and low-frequency summer hydroclimate variability over North America
Great Plains Precipitation AnomalySeasonal precipitation anomalies smoothed by 12 applications of 1-2-1 averagingThe smoothed PRECIP index mimics PDSI (correlation of detrended series ~0.85)
Full Century (1901-2002)
Half Century (1950-2000)
Full Century (1901-2002) Correlations
[CRU_P, CCM3_P] =0.36 (0.37 detrend)
[CRU_P, CAM3.5_P]=0.32 (0.33 detrend)
[CRU_P, PDSI] =0.82 (0.84 detrend)
Half Century (1950-2000) Correlations
[CRU_P, CCM3_P] =0.58 (0.50 detrend)
[CRU_P, CAM3.5_P]=0.38 (0.19 detrend)
[CRU_P, GFS_P] =0.28 (0.19 detrend)
[CRU_P, NSIPP_P] =0.27 (0.04 detrend)
SST Correlations of the Great Plains SummerPRECIP Indices (1950-2000)All-season precipitation indices are first detrended and then smoothed(as before) to generate PDSI proxies. The summertime proxy indices are then correlated with detrended SSTs.
This first look, based on evaluation of a SINGLE ensemble member from each center’s AMIP simulations, indicates