World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010
Download
1 / 18

Amin Rasekh Kelly Brumbelow Emily Zechman May 19, 2010 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 80 Views
  • Uploaded on

World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010. WDS Vulnerability Analysis : Focusing on Random Factors, Consumer Behavior, and System Dynamics in Contamination Events. Amin Rasekh Kelly Brumbelow Emily Zechman May 19, 2010. Research Issues.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Amin Rasekh Kelly Brumbelow Emily Zechman May 19, 2010' - paniz


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2010

WDS Vulnerability Analysis:Focusing on Random Factors, Consumer Behavior, and System Dynamics in Contamination Events

AminRasekh

Kelly Brumbelow

Emily Zechman

May 19, 2010


Research issues
Research Issues

  • Human behavior in WDS contamination relatively unknown

  • WDS are complex, dynamic, and uncertain

  • Managers receive fragmented and indistinct information

  • Manager actions can have unintended consequences




Case study mesopolis
Case Study: Mesopolis

Airport & Industry

University Campus

Suburbs – Residential & Commercial

Old City – Commercial & High-Density

Low Density Residential

Suburbs – Residential & Commercial

Low Density Residential

Naval Base

~ 8 miles


Case study mesopolis1
Case Study: Mesopolis

Low Density Residential

Low Density Residential

University

Naval Base

Suburbs

Old City

Suburbs

East Plant

West WTP

West Plant

East WTP


Meta analysis of past events 80 events hrudey and hrudey 2004
Meta-Analysis of Past Events (~80 events, Hrudey and Hrudey 2004)

Occurrence Probability

Estimated Infection Cases


Meta analysis stochastic characterization
Meta-Analysis & Stochastic Characterization

Average number of doses per event scaled to Mesopolis population (Millions)

Number of Organisms Frequency Distribution (C jejuni)


Meta-Analysis & Stochastic Characterization

Contamination Occurrence Location

Demand Multiplier Distribution

(New York City, Angelos 2000)


Monte carlo simulation process
Monte Carlo Simulation Process

Public Surveys

Agent-based Model

Stochastic Inputs

ContaminantType

Contaminant Quantity

Duration of Introduction

Source Location

Demand Multiplier

Simulation Model


Monte carlo simulation results
Monte Carlo Simulation Results



Optimization results pathogens
Optimization Results: Pathogens

Exposure × Probability

Risk


Optimization results plants
Optimization Results: Plants

Exposure × Probability

Risk


Optimization vs simulation
Optimization vs.Simulation

0

Optimization

Monte Carlo Simulation

West Plant (majority)

East Plant (only)


Optimization simulation
Optimization & Simulation

0

Optimization

Monte Carlo Simulation

West Plant (majority)

East Plant (only)


Future work
Future Work

  • Sensitivity analysis for current stochastic inputs and ingestion models

  • Integration of consumer agents into this framework

  • Meta-analysis of utility management to develop manager agents: information flow, false positives, delay in response

  • Multi-objective optimization of response plans for developed scenarios


Acknowledgment
Acknowledgment

National Science Foundation

Infrastructure Management & Hazards Response Program


ad