Vision and vital uncertainties for nursing futures
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 26

Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 45 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures. Jonathan C. Peck President & Senior Futurist June 13, 1014. LEARNING OBJECTIVES. Understand Why Aspirations Matter Explore Uncertainty in Alternative Scenarios Assess Nursing Likelihoods and Preferences

Download Presentation

Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Vision and vital uncertainties for nursing futures

Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures

Jonathan C. Peck

President & Senior Futurist

June 13, 1014


Learning objectives

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

  • Understand Why Aspirations Matter

  • Explore Uncertainty in Alternative Scenarios

  • Assess Nursing Likelihoods and Preferences

  • Envision Nursing for Health & Wellbeing


Aspirations model

Aspirations Model


Iaf s approach aspirational futures

IAF’s approach:Aspirational Futures


Forecasts across four scenarios

Forecasts Across Four Scenarios

  • Macro environment

    • US economy

    • Culture

    • Government

  • Health

    • Definition

    • Status

    • Locus

  • Health Care

    • Health Care Delivery

    • Health Insurance Coverage

    • Health Information Technology

    • National Health Care Spending/GDP


Scenario 1 slow reform better health

Scenario #1Slow Reform, Better Health

Personalized medicine – with clouds of data

Many diseases prevented


Scenario 1 slow reform better health1

Scenario #1Slow Reform, Better Health

Innovations: Avatars & Adaptive trials

Focus on health Social Determinants

Greater Disparities


Scenario 1 slow reform better health2

Scenario 1: Slow Reform, Better Health


Scenario 2 health if you can get it

Scenario #2Health If You Can Get It

2013: Policy failures; Recession; Cuts to Medicare and Medicaid

Economic Gaps Grow

Political Extremes

Pronounced Pessimism, Family Burdens


Scenario 2 health if you can get it1

Scenario #2Health If You Can Get It

2020: 75 million uninsured

Business ethics trump medical ethics

Affluent get medical advances

Poor get crowded ERs & Minute Clinics


Scenario 2 health if you can get it2

Scenario 2: Health If You Can Get It


Scenario 3 big data big health gains

Scenario #3Big Data, Big Health Gains

  • Cultural shifts affect health, policy and care to change local economics

  • Success: ending food deserts, e.g., Harlem Children’s Zone

  • Political change; shared vision; cooperation


Scenario 3 big data big health gains1

Scenario #3Big Data, Big Health Gains

Personalized Vital Signs

Digital health agents, gaming, social networking

Local food & manufacturing

“Personal data clouds”; Massive community data

Prevention/ Preemption of chronic diseases; Models & Simulations; Adaptive Trials


Scenario 3 big data big health gains2

Scenario #3Big Data, Big Health Gains

Community Centered Health Home

Triple Aim

Effective self-care

From PCMH to Community Centered Health Home

Most providers integrated, capitated

Healthy communities; self care decreasesdemand for physician services and hospital care


Scenario 3 big data big health gains3

Scenario 3: Big Data, Big Health Gains


Scenario 4 a culture of health

Scenario #4A Culture of Health

Innate human drive for healthy growth

Systems biology evolves into health ecology in all health domains

Leaders creating environments for health


Scenario 4 a culture of health1

Scenario #4A Culture of Health

Boomers’ crisis creates focus on youth

Reality TV shows what a “good death” looks like

Health care incorporates new patient’s values


Scenario 4 a culture of health2

Scenario #4A Culture of Health

Health care spending capped locally

Avatars for self-care reduce demand for medical interventions

2025: Unified Biological Systems Theory


Scenario 4 a culture of health3

Scenario 4: A Culture of Health


Likelihood and preferability

Likelihood and Preferability


Recommend new health roles

Recommend New Health Roles


Recommend tech for health metrics

Recommend Tech For Health Metrics


Recommend new leadership

Recommend New Leadership


Recommend remove barriers to health

Recommend Remove Barriers to Health


From 2032 back to 2014

From 2032 Back To 2014

Imagine Nurses Created A Culture of Health and Wellbeing in 2032.

  • What would you be doing in 2014 to help?

  • Are there new health roles for nurses?

  • How will you measure nursing progress?

  • Who inspires you to shape nursing’s futures?


Thank you

Thank you!

Jonathan Peck

President & Senior Futurist

Institute for Alternative Futures

703-684-5880

www.altfutures.org

[email protected]


  • Login