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Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures. Jonathan C. Peck President & Senior Futurist June 13, 1014. LEARNING OBJECTIVES. Understand Why Aspirations Matter Explore Uncertainty in Alternative Scenarios Assess Nursing Likelihoods and Preferences

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Vision and vital uncertainties for nursing futures

Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures

Jonathan C. Peck

President & Senior Futurist

June 13, 1014


Learning objectives
LEARNING OBJECTIVES

  • Understand Why Aspirations Matter

  • Explore Uncertainty in Alternative Scenarios

  • Assess Nursing Likelihoods and Preferences

  • Envision Nursing for Health & Wellbeing



Iaf s approach aspirational futures
IAF’s approach:Aspirational Futures


Forecasts across four scenarios
Forecasts Across Four Scenarios

  • Macro environment

    • US economy

    • Culture

    • Government

  • Health

    • Definition

    • Status

    • Locus

  • Health Care

    • Health Care Delivery

    • Health Insurance Coverage

    • Health Information Technology

    • National Health Care Spending/GDP


Scenario 1 slow reform better health
Scenario #1Slow Reform, Better Health

Personalized medicine – with clouds of data

Many diseases prevented


Scenario 1 slow reform better health1
Scenario #1Slow Reform, Better Health

Innovations: Avatars & Adaptive trials

Focus on health Social Determinants

Greater Disparities



Scenario 2 health if you can get it
Scenario #2Health If You Can Get It

2013: Policy failures; Recession; Cuts to Medicare and Medicaid

Economic Gaps Grow

Political Extremes

Pronounced Pessimism, Family Burdens


Scenario 2 health if you can get it1
Scenario #2Health If You Can Get It

2020: 75 million uninsured

Business ethics trump medical ethics

Affluent get medical advances

Poor get crowded ERs & Minute Clinics



Scenario 3 big data big health gains
Scenario #3Big Data, Big Health Gains

  • Cultural shifts affect health, policy and care to change local economics

  • Success: ending food deserts, e.g., Harlem Children’s Zone

  • Political change; shared vision; cooperation


Scenario 3 big data big health gains1
Scenario #3Big Data, Big Health Gains

Personalized Vital Signs

Digital health agents, gaming, social networking

Local food & manufacturing

“Personal data clouds”; Massive community data

Prevention/ Preemption of chronic diseases; Models & Simulations; Adaptive Trials


Scenario 3 big data big health gains2
Scenario #3Big Data, Big Health Gains

Community Centered Health Home

Triple Aim

Effective self-care

From PCMH to Community Centered Health Home

Most providers integrated, capitated

Healthy communities; self care decreasesdemand for physician services and hospital care



Scenario 4 a culture of health
Scenario #4A Culture of Health

Innate human drive for healthy growth

Systems biology evolves into health ecology in all health domains

Leaders creating environments for health


Scenario 4 a culture of health1
Scenario #4A Culture of Health

Boomers’ crisis creates focus on youth

Reality TV shows what a “good death” looks like

Health care incorporates new patient’s values


Scenario 4 a culture of health2
Scenario #4A Culture of Health

Health care spending capped locally

Avatars for self-care reduce demand for medical interventions

2025: Unified Biological Systems Theory








From 2032 back to 2014
From 2032 Back To 2014

Imagine Nurses Created A Culture of Health and Wellbeing in 2032.

  • What would you be doing in 2014 to help?

  • Are there new health roles for nurses?

  • How will you measure nursing progress?

  • Who inspires you to shape nursing’s futures?


Thank you
Thank you!

Jonathan Peck

President & Senior Futurist

Institute for Alternative Futures

703-684-5880

www.altfutures.org

[email protected]


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