U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook June 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Environment. U.S. Real GDP Growth. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast. Civilian Unemployment Rate. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection).

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Macroeconomic Environment

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U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookJune 2010Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council


Macroeconomic Environment


U.S. Real GDP Growth


U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price


U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast


Civilian Unemployment Rate


U.S. Federal Budget Surplus(CBO Projection)


CBO Ag Baseline Spending


Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries


Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)


Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )


Ag Prices Received Index


U.S. Net Farm Income


U.S. Cotton Supply


December Cotton Futures

Cents per Pound


December Corn Futures

Cents per Bushel


November Soybean Futures

Cents per Bushel


2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings

Thousand Acres

20092010%

Actual Estimated* Change

Southeast1,891 2,390 26.4

Mid-South 1,627 1,730 6.3

Southwest5,243 5,875 12.1

West247 320 29.5

ALL UPLAND9,00810,31514.5

ALL ELS141 190 34.4

ALL COTTON9,150 10,505 14.8

*USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings Report


2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings

Thousand Hectares

20092010%

Actual Estimated* Change

Southeast765 967 26.4

Mid-South 658 700 6.3

Southwest2,122 2,378 12.1

West100 130 29.5

ALL UPLAND3,6454,17414.5

ALL ELS57 77 34.4

ALL COTTON3,703 4,251 14.8

*USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings Report


U.S. Cotton Production


U.S. Cotton Supply


U.S. Cotton Demand


Net Domestic Fiber Consumption


Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption


Components of Retail Cotton Consumption


U.S. Cotton Textile Imports


U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports


U.S. Trade With Mexico


U.S. Trade with CBI


U.S. Imports from China


U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year, Million Bales)


U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)


U.S. Cotton Production & Use


The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports


China Cotton Supply & Use


World Cotton Production


World Fiber Mill Use

*PCI


Fiber Prices


World Cotton Mill Use


Foreign Cotton Production & Use


U.S. Cotton Exports


World Cotton Ending Stocks


Cotton Stocks/Use(World less China)


U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales

Beginning Stocks6.342.90

Production12.1916.70

Imports0.010.00

Total Supply18.5319.60

Mill Use3.403.30

Exports12.2513.50

Total Offtake15.6516.80

Ending Stocks2.902.80

Stocks-to-Use Ratio18.5%16.7%

2009/10e

2010/11p


U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons

Beginning Stocks1.380.63

Production2.663.64

Imports0.000.00

Total Supply4.044.27

Mill Use0.740.72

Exports2.672.94

Total Offtake3.413.66

Ending Stocks0.630.61

Stocks-to-Use Ratio18.5%16.7%

2009/10e

2010/11p


World Supply and DemandMillion Bales

2009/10e

2010/11p

Beginning Stocks62.7052.21

Production102.89114.32

Imports35.7036.12

Mill Use116.43119.49

Exports35.2636.14

Ending Stocks52.2149.59

Stocks-to-Use Ratio44.8%41.5%


World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons

2009/10e

2010/11p

Beginning Stocks13.6611.37

Production22.4224.91

Imports7.787.87

Mill Use25.3726.03

Exports7.687.87

Ending Stocks11.3710.80

Stocks-to-Use Ratio44.8%41.5%


Producers

Cooperatives

Warehouses

Manufacturers

Ginners

Cottonseed

Merchants


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