U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook June 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Environment. U.S. Real GDP Growth. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast. Civilian Unemployment Rate. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection).

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Macroeconomic Environment

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Macroeconomic environment

U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookJune 2010Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council


Macroeconomic environment

Macroeconomic Environment


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Real GDP Growth


U s crude oil spot price

U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price


U s 2 diesel gulf coast

U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast


Civilian unemployment rate

Civilian Unemployment Rate


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Federal Budget Surplus(CBO Projection)


Cbo ag baseline spending

CBO Ag Baseline Spending


Macroeconomic environment

Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries


Macroeconomic environment

Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)


Macroeconomic environment

Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )


Macroeconomic environment

Ag Prices Received Index


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Net Farm Income


U s cotton supply

U.S. Cotton Supply


December cotton futures

December Cotton Futures

Cents per Pound


December corn futures

December Corn Futures

Cents per Bushel


November soybean futures

November Soybean Futures

Cents per Bushel


2010 u s cotton plantings

2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings

Thousand Acres

20092010%

Actual Estimated* Change

Southeast1,891 2,390 26.4

Mid-South 1,627 1,730 6.3

Southwest5,243 5,875 12.1

West247 320 29.5

ALL UPLAND9,00810,31514.5

ALL ELS141 190 34.4

ALL COTTON9,150 10,505 14.8

*USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings Report


2010 u s cotton plantings1

2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings

Thousand Hectares

20092010%

Actual Estimated* Change

Southeast765 967 26.4

Mid-South 658 700 6.3

Southwest2,122 2,378 12.1

West100 130 29.5

ALL UPLAND3,6454,17414.5

ALL ELS57 77 34.4

ALL COTTON3,703 4,251 14.8

*USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings Report


U s cotton production

U.S. Cotton Production


U s cotton supply1

U.S. Cotton Supply


U s cotton demand

U.S. Cotton Demand


Net domestic fiber consumption

Net Domestic Fiber Consumption


Cotton s share of fiber consumption

Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption


Components of retail cotton consumption

Components of Retail Cotton Consumption


U s cotton textile imports

U.S. Cotton Textile Imports


U s cotton content in textile imports

U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports


U s trade with mexico

U.S. Trade With Mexico


U s trade with cbi

U.S. Trade with CBI


U s imports from china

U.S. Imports from China


U s cotton mill use calendar year million bales

U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year, Million Bales)


U s cotton mill use crop year million bales

U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Cotton Production & Use


The world market u s cotton exports

The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports


China cotton supply use

China Cotton Supply & Use


World cotton production

World Cotton Production


World fiber mill use

World Fiber Mill Use

*PCI


Macroeconomic environment

Fiber Prices


World cotton mill use

World Cotton Mill Use


Foreign cotton production use

Foreign Cotton Production & Use


U s cotton exports

U.S. Cotton Exports


World cotton ending stocks

World Cotton Ending Stocks


Cotton stocks use world less china

Cotton Stocks/Use(World less China)


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales

Beginning Stocks6.342.90

Production12.1916.70

Imports0.010.00

Total Supply18.5319.60

Mill Use3.403.30

Exports12.2513.50

Total Offtake15.6516.80

Ending Stocks2.902.80

Stocks-to-Use Ratio18.5%16.7%

2009/10e

2010/11p


Macroeconomic environment

U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons

Beginning Stocks1.380.63

Production2.663.64

Imports0.000.00

Total Supply4.044.27

Mill Use0.740.72

Exports2.672.94

Total Offtake3.413.66

Ending Stocks0.630.61

Stocks-to-Use Ratio18.5%16.7%

2009/10e

2010/11p


Macroeconomic environment

World Supply and DemandMillion Bales

2009/10e

2010/11p

Beginning Stocks62.7052.21

Production102.89114.32

Imports35.7036.12

Mill Use116.43119.49

Exports35.2636.14

Ending Stocks52.2149.59

Stocks-to-Use Ratio44.8%41.5%


Macroeconomic environment

World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons

2009/10e

2010/11p

Beginning Stocks13.6611.37

Production22.4224.91

Imports7.787.87

Mill Use25.3726.03

Exports7.687.87

Ending Stocks11.3710.80

Stocks-to-Use Ratio44.8%41.5%


Macroeconomic environment

Producers

Cooperatives

Warehouses

Manufacturers

Ginners

Cottonseed

Merchants


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