U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook June 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Environment. U.S. Real GDP Growth. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast. Civilian Unemployment Rate. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection).

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U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookJune 2010Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council









Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries


Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)


Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )





December cotton futures
December Cotton Futures

Cents per Pound


December corn futures
December Corn Futures

Cents per Bushel


November soybean futures
November Soybean Futures

Cents per Bushel


2010 u s cotton plantings
2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings

Thousand Acres

2009 2010 %

Actual Estimated* Change

Southeast 1,891 2,390 26.4

Mid-South 1,627 1,730 6.3

Southwest 5,243 5,875 12.1

West 247 320 29.5

ALL UPLAND9,00810,31514.5

ALL ELS 141 190 34.4

ALL COTTON 9,150 10,505 14.8

*USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings Report


2010 u s cotton plantings1
2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings

Thousand Hectares

2009 2010 %

Actual Estimated* Change

Southeast 765 967 26.4

Mid-South 658 700 6.3

Southwest 2,122 2,378 12.1

West 100 130 29.5

ALL UPLAND3,6454,17414.5

ALL ELS 57 77 34.4

ALL COTTON 3,703 4,251 14.8

*USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings Report













U s cotton mill use calendar year million bales
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year, Million Bales)


U s cotton mill use crop year million bales
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)



The world market u s cotton exports

The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports










Cotton stocks use world less china
Cotton Stocks/Use(World less China)


U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales

Beginning Stocks 6.34 2.90

Production 12.19 16.70

Imports 0.01 0.00

Total Supply 18.53 19.60

Mill Use 3.40 3.30

Exports 12.25 13.50

Total Offtake 15.65 16.80

Ending Stocks 2.90 2.80

Stocks-to-Use Ratio 18.5% 16.7%

2009/10e

2010/11p


U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons

Beginning Stocks 1.38 0.63

Production 2.66 3.64

Imports 0.00 0.00

Total Supply 4.04 4.27

Mill Use 0.74 0.72

Exports 2.67 2.94

Total Offtake 3.41 3.66

Ending Stocks 0.63 0.61

Stocks-to-Use Ratio 18.5% 16.7%

2009/10e

2010/11p


World Supply and DemandMillion Bales

2009/10e

2010/11p

Beginning Stocks 62.70 52.21

Production 102.89 114.32

Imports 35.70 36.12

Mill Use 116.43 119.49

Exports 35.26 36.14

Ending Stocks 52.21 49.59

Stocks-to-Use Ratio 44.8% 41.5%


World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons

2009/10e

2010/11p

Beginning Stocks 13.66 11.37

Production 22.42 24.91

Imports 7.78 7.87

Mill Use 25.37 26.03

Exports 7.68 7.87

Ending Stocks 11.37 10.80

Stocks-to-Use Ratio 44.8% 41.5%


Producers

Cooperatives

Warehouses

Manufacturers

Ginners

Cottonseed

Merchants


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