Trade versus the environment strategic settlement from a systems engineering perspective
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 104

Trade versus the Environment: Strategic Settlement from a Systems Engineering Perspective PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 84 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Trade versus the Environment: Strategic Settlement from a Systems Engineering Perspective. KEITH W. HIPEL University Professor, PhD, PEng, FIEEE, FCAE, FINCOSE, FEIC, FRSC, FAWRA Department of Systems Design Engineering University of Waterloo Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1

Download Presentation

Trade versus the Environment: Strategic Settlement from a Systems Engineering Perspective

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Trade versus the environment strategic settlement from a systems engineering perspective

Trade versus the Environment: Strategic Settlement from a Systems Engineering Perspective

KEITH W. HIPEL

University Professor, PhD, PEng, FIEEE, FCAE, FINCOSE, FEIC, FRSC, FAWRA

Department of Systems Design Engineering

University of Waterloo

Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1

Telephone (519) 888-4567, ext. 32830

Fax (519) 746-4791

Email: [email protected]

Home Page: www.systems.uwaterloo.ca/Faculty/Hipel/

Conflict Analysis Group: http://www.systems.uwaterloo.ca/Research/CAG/


Abstract

ABSTRACT

The key goal of this research is to employ a Systems Engineering approach to conflict resolution to clearly identify the ubiquitous conflict taking place at the local, national and global levels between the basic values underlying trading agreements and those principles providing the foundations for environmental stewardship, and to suggest solutions as to how this most basic of disputes can be responsibly resolved. Subsequent to outlining the current situation involving free trade among nations and associated environmental problems, the positions of both sides in this chronic dispute between trade and the environment are summarized. Supporting the stance of free trade is the fundamental driving forces of profit maximization, while in direct opposition to this market-driven value system are the principles of maintaining a healthy environment and related social welfare objectives. Accordingly, this global clash of values is systematically studied as a game in which the values of the Global Market-Driven Economy (GMDE) are in confrontation with those of a Sustainable Ecosystem (SES) philosophy. A Systems Engineering tool for strategic analysis, called the Graph Model for Conflict, is utilized for realistically capturing the key characteristics of this type of complex conflict and for providing strategic insights regarding its potential resolution. In particular, a systematic Graph Model investigation reveals that the environment and social standards will continue to deteriorate if the entrenched positions and related value systems of both camps persist. However, based on the strategic understanding gained from this formal conflict study, a number of positive proposals are put forward for resolving this conflict from a win/win perspective, at least in the long run. To highlight inherent advantages of employing a formal Systems Engineering tool for addressing strategic conflict problems, the application is used for illustrating how the Graph Model can be conveniently applied to a specific dispute and comments regarding the capabilities and benefits of the conflict methodology are provided at each step in the modeling and analysis procedure.


References

REFERENCES

  • Hipel, K.W. and Obeidi, A., “Trade versus the Environment: Strategic Settlement from a Systems Engineering Perspective”, Systems Engineering, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 211-233, 2005.

  • See the web page of the Conflict Analysis Group at the University of Waterloo to obtain an extensive list of references.

  • Conflict Analysis Group: http://www.systems.uwaterloo.ca/Research/CAG/


Objectives

OBJECTIVES

  • Model the conflict of values between the proponents of the Global Market-Driven Economy (GMDE) and those supporting a sustainable Ecosystem (SES).

  • Analyze this global conflict using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution and its associated decision support system GMCR II to gain strategic insights.

  • Suggest what can be done politically to promote sustainable development, including responsible and equitable utilization of water.


Recommendations

RECOMMENDATIONS

  • Extensive educational and lobbying efforts are required for encouraging market-place proponents to change their value system by putting a higher priority on sustainable development.

  • International trade agreements such as those of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) must be reformed or replaced to reflect these values.


Contents

CONTENTS

  • TRADE AND THE ENVIRONMENT

  • CONCEPTUALIZING THE CONFLICT: A CLASH OF VALUES

  • CONFLICT MODEL

  • ANALYTICAL RESULTS AND INSIGHTS

  • SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: MODERATE PREFERENCE CHANGE

  • ACHIEVING GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

  • REFORMING GLOBALIZATION


World crisis

WORLD CRISIS

  • Consumption

  • Energy

  • Population growth

    • Widening gap between rich and poor

    • Pollution

    • Extinction of species

    • Water shortages

Encouraged by international

trade agreements


Inner conflict of values

INNER CONFLICT OF VALUES

Basic drive to survive and prosper

Versus

Desire to pressure environment in a pristine state


Societal level

SOCIETAL LEVEL

Cumulative intense economic activities

Versus

Environmental preservation


Sustainable development

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Economic needs of humanity

are balanced against

Preserving nature for future generations


Awareness and responsibility

AWARENESS AND RESPONSIBILITY

Society

Versus

The Environment

Humans must come to terms with this chronic conflict of values existing within and among themselves and take responsible actions to resolve it.


Trade agreements

TRADE AGREEMENTS

  • BRETTON WOODS AGREEMENTS:

    • World Bank

    • International Monetary Fund (IMF)

    • General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) (1947)

  • OTHER AGREEMENTS

    • WTO (1995)

    • NAFTA (1994)

    • FTAA (Free Trade Area of the Americas will replace NAFTA)

    • Canada/US Auto Pact (socially responsible)

    • European Community (EC, integrated agreements)


Transnational environmental treaties

TRANSNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL TREATIES

  • No comprehensive international environmental treaty is in place.

  • Some treaties exist in specific areas:

    • Law of the Sea

    • Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer

    • Basel Convention on banning trade in hazardous wastes

    • Kyoto Protocol for reducing greenhouse gases


Environmental impacts of trade

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF TRADE

Trade rules are globally operational

And

No encompassing environmental treaty exists.

Many specific cases in which trade-based decisions harmed the environment and human health.


Conceptualizing the conflict a clash of values

CONCEPTUALIZING THE CONFLICT: A CLASH OF VALUES

Sustainable Ecosystem

(SES)

Values

GLOBAL MARKET-DRIVEN ECONOMY

(GMDE)

Values


Positions and value systems

POSITIONS AND VALUE SYSTEMS

Global Market-Driven Economy (GMDE)

Sustainable Ecosystem (SES)

Background information for carrying out a formal conflict study


Gmde value system

GMDE VALUE SYSTEM

Prioritizes free trade and globalization based on the principle of a market driven economy.

Many benefits will follow.


Ses value system

SES VALUE SYSTEM

  • Prioritizes environmental stewardship, biodiversity, sustainable development, human rights, democratic principles, and other related issues that are important to societal well-being.

  • Highly critical of current free trade agreements, such as WTO agreements and NAFTA which are founded on market economics.


Conflict of values

CONFLICT OF VALUES

Trade

Versus

The Environment

Carry out strategic analyses to find ethical and just resolutions.


Conflict resolution

CONFLICT RESOLUTION

  • Use a formal systems engineering approach called the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to model and analyze the Conflict of Values: Trade versus the Environment.

  • This flexible methodology is implemented using the decision support system GMCR II.


Decision makers and options

DECISION MAKERS AND OPTIONS


Conflict of values1

CONFLICT OF VALUES

Reflects a generic conflict taking place around the globe.

Systematically studying this ubiquitous conflict can provide understanding and wisdom for solving similar, but more complicated realworld disputes over trade and the environment.

First time that this generic conflict has been strategically analyzed.


Carrying out a conflict study

CARRYING OUT A CONFLICT STUDY


Graph model for conflict resolution

GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION

  • Theory is founded upon a rigorous mathematical framework, utilizing concepts from graph theory, set theory and logic—the mathematics of relationships.

  • Design is mathematically based but completely nonquantitative in nature.

  • Can handle any finite number of decision makers and options.

  • Utilizes relative preferences.

  • Can handle irreversible and common moves.


Design features of the decision support system gmcr ii

DESIGN FEATURES OF THE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM GMCR II

  • GMCR II is programmed in C++, possesses a carefully designed data structure, and can handle small, medium and large models.

  • A 32-bit doubleword represents a specific selection of options wherein each digit or bit equals 1 or 0 to indicate whether or not the option it represents is taken or not.

  • This design can accommodate up to 32 options, which is more than enough for all realworld applications considered to date.


Gmcr ii structure

GMCR II STRUCTURE


Conflict model

CONFLICT MODEL


Infeasible states

INFEASIBLE STATES

  • Each option can be selected or not taken.

  • Hence, there exist states.

  • Remove states that cannot occur in real world.

    • Reform and influence are mutually exclusive.

    • Reform and promote are mutually exclusive.

    • Reform and pressure are mutually exclusive.

  • 36 feasible states remain after removing the infeasible ones.


  • Feasible states

    FEASIBLE STATES


    Executing a conflict study

    EXECUTING A CONFLICT STUDY


    Preferences

    PREFERENCES

    • Rank states from most to least preferred for each decision maker (DM) where ties are allowed.

    • In option prioritization, preferences of a DM are expressed using preference statements about options that are listed in a hierarchical fashion from most important at the top to least important at the bottom.

    • The preference statements follow the rules of first order logic.


    Preferences1

    PREFERENCES

    • Assuming transitivity, an algorithm uses the preference statements to rank the states for the DM.

    • States can be subsequently sorted manually using direct ranking.


    Reference statements

    REFERENCE STATEMENTS


    Gmde preference statements

    GMDE PREFERENCE STATEMENTS


    Ses preference statements

    SES PREFERENCE STATEMENTS


    Ranking of states

    RANKING OF STATES


    Comments on preference elicitation

    COMMENTS ON PREFERENCE ELICITATION

    • GMCR II only requires relative preferences for each decision maker.

    • The problem of obtaining cardinal preference information, such as utility values, is avoided.

    • GMCR II develops an ordinal ranking of states from most to least preferred and allows for ties.

    • The graph theory methodology can handle intransitive preferences.


    Types of values

    TYPES OF VALUES

    • Held or protected value: an enduring, moral principle

      • Example: Protecting the environment from unwarranted economic activity.

      • A held value should not be traded off with other values.

    • Assigned value: worth of something to an individual or organization within a given context

      • Illustration: aesthetics may be valued less if it becomes too expensive.


    Conflict ethics and value systems

    CONFLICT, ETHICS AND VALUE SYSTEMS

    • Conflicts arise because of differences of objectives or value systems among participants.

    • Each participant or decision maker has his or her criteria for deciding upon its preferences among states or possible scenarios.

    • An ethical or moral environmentalist would prioritize criteria or objectives such as minimizing environmental impacts, as well as maximizing fairness and societal well being.

      However, ethics is measured relative to a specific value system.

      A participant's ethics is reflected in the choices he or she make in a given situation.


    Preference elicitation in gmcr ii

    PREFERENCE ELICITATION IN GMCR II


    Executing a conflict study1

    EXECUTING A CONFLICT STUDY


    Input interface

    INPUT INTERFACE

    • Decision Makers

    • Options

    • Feasible States

    • State Transitions

    • Preferences


    Output

    OUTPUT

    • Input information

    • Individual stability results

    • Equilibria

    • Coalition analysis

    • Sensitivity analysis

    • Tracing the evolution of the conflict


    Stability analysis

    STABILITY ANALYSIS

    • A state is stable for a DM if it is not advantageous for the DM to unilaterally move away from it.

    • Because people may behave differently under conflict, stability can brought about in a variety of ways.

    • A solution concept is a mathematical description of how a DM may behave in a dispute.

    • Table 5 lists a range of solution concepts.


    Solution concepts

    SOLUTION CONCEPTS


    Comments on realistically describing human behaviour in conflict situations

    COMMENTS ON REALISTICALLY DESCRIBING HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IN CONFLICT SITUATIONS

    • People can behave in different ways under conditions of conflict.

    • A range of solution concepts mathematically define different types of human behaviour.

    • Solution concepts are precisely stated using set theory, logic and graph theory-the mathematics of relationships.

    • Directed graphs or reachable lists keep track of movements when decision makers dynamically interact.

      The graph model methodology is entirely nonquantitative yet completely mathematical and axiomatic.


    Analytical insights

    ANALYTICAL INSIGHTS

    • Predict possible compromise resolutions.

    • Determine how a given DM may wish to respond in an optimal fashion within the social constraints of the conflict.

    • Ascertain if and when it is advantageous to cooperate with others in order to jointly reach a more preferred outcome.

    • Find out how the conflict could dynamically evolve from a status quo state to an eventual resolution.


    Stability analysis1

    STABILITY ANALYSIS

    • GMCR II analyzes each state for stability for each DM according to each solution concept.

    • An equilibrium is stable for all DMs with respect to a given solution concept.

      An equilibrium constitutes a possible compromise resolution since the conflict will stop when it reaches an equilibrium during the evolution of the dispute.


    Equilibria

    EQUILIBRIA


    Decision makers and options1

    DECISION MAKERS AND OPTIONS


    Conflict evolution

    CONFLICT EVOLUTION


    Sensitivity analysis

    SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

    • Determine how meaningful changes in the model parameters can influence the stability results.

    • The specific types of sensitivity analyses to carry out are dictated by the particular characteristics of the problem being studied.


    Types of sensitivity analyses

    TYPES OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES

    • Preference changes

    • Option modification or expansion

    • Side payments

    • Bring other decision makers into the dispute

    • Consideration of other kinds of human behaviour (solution concepts)

    • Coalitions

    • Misunderstandings (called hypergames)

    • Entertainment of other modes to bargaining and negotiation


    Sensitivity analysis moderate preference change

    SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: MODERATE PREFERENCE CHANGE

    • Make meaningful changes in the ranking of states for both GMDE and SES (see Section 5).

      Determine how the equilibrium results change.

      The findings are similar to the equilibria predicted by the original model.

      Equilibrium results are fairly robust with respect to the preference changes


    Insights

    INSIGHTS

    • None of the strong equilibria in Tables 6 and 10 include GMDE’s reform option.

    • To obtain reform, GMDE must have a positive attitude towards environmental stewardship.

    • SES must understand that unless GMDE changes its value system reform is not possible.

    • SES could better educate the general public and GMDE about the advantages of being environmentally responsible and obtaining a win/win resolution.


    Achieving global sustainable development

    ACHIEVING GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

    Another form of sensitivity analysis is performed by assuming that GMDE substantially revises its relative preferences.

    Demonstrations in Seattle, Quebec, Cancun and elsewhere against global trade are a chronic annoyance for GMDE.

    GMDE may reform its agenda as long as these demonstrations are not perceived as a source of intimidation.


    Enlightened preferences for gmde

    ENLIGHTENED PREFERENCES FOR GMDE

    • A revised preference structure is proposed based on the premise that GMDE intends to reform its agenda.

    • An enlightened preference structure for GMDE is proposed such that the most preferred states are those that contain reform or not influence if SES does not pressure trade negotiators (3|-1 IF -6). The second most important preference for GMDE is SES not pressure (-6).


    Reformed preference structure

    REFORMED PREFERENCE STRUCTURE


    Original preference statements

    ORIGINAL PREFERENCE STATEMENTS


    Enlightened preferences for gmde1

    ENLIGHTENED PREFERENCES FOR GMDE

    • The modified preference statements for GMDE are shown on the left in Table 11 while the unchanged preferences for SES are listed on the right.

    • Table 3 shows the preference statements used in the original conflict analysis.

    • Notice that the only change in GMDE’s preferences is that its most important statement given in the top left of Table 3 as -3|1 is replaced by the conditional preference statement in the top left of Table 11 written as 3|-1 IF -6.


    Breakthrough with gmde s enlightened attitude

    BREAKTHROUGH WITH GMDE’S ENLIGHTENED ATTITUDE

    • GMDE’s preference changes are not very dramatic.

      Hence, they are credible and politically feasible

      Equilibria are obtained that contain the reform option being taken (states 5, 10, 15, and 20)

      State 20 is a strong equilibrium


    Desirable conflict evolution

    DESIRABLE CONFLICT EVOLUTION


    Breakthrough

    BREAKTHROUGH

    • The chronic Conflict of Values dispute is an example of what Burton (1987) calls a deep-rooted conflict.

    • Given a set of entrenched preferences or deep-rooted value systems, GMCR II can predict the possible resolutions and associated insights.

    • GMCR II shows that a reasonable change in GMDE’s preferences (see Tables 8 and 11) can result in reform taking place (Table 13).

    • Facilitation, mediation and other procedures can help participants in a conflict to better understand one another so positions can shift and thereby produce enhanced strategic results such as state 20.


    Reforming globalization

    REFORMING GLOBALIZATION

    • Strategic analyses reveal that a sustainable resolution to the conflict of trade versus the environment is possible.

    • Specific suggestions are put forward in this section as to how reform can be implemented.


    1909 boundary waters treaty between canada and the usa

    1909 BOUNDARY WATERS TREATY BETWEEN CANADA AND THE USA

    • Example of a successful bilateral treaty that espouses integrative water resources management.

    • Deals with water quality, water quantity, air quality and other environmental issues between Canada and the USA.

    • Based on the principle of equity between the citizens of Canada and the USA and environmental integrity principles.

    • Is a good model for helping to design Multilateral Environmental Agreements.


    International joint commission ijc

    INTERNATIONAL JOINT COMMISSION (IJC)

    • International mediator for boundary water disputes between Canada and the USA.

    • Composed of three members from Canada and three from the USA.

    • IJC’s mandate is dictated by the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909.

    • Can make recommendations on a water or environmental dispute put forward by either country.


    International joint commission ijc cont d

    INTERNATIONAL JOINT COMMISSION (IJC) (Cont’d)

    • ICJ uses the best experts from both countries to carry out its background studies when it comes up with an impartial recommendation for settling the dispute.

    • In some cases, the ICJ can make a binding judgment.

    • The Boundary Water Treaty has worked extremely well over the years and is an ideal model for framing similar international treaties.


    Policy design

    POLICY DESIGN

    • Design policies, laws, treaties and other agreements based upon ethical principles concerning the environment and people’s well-being.

    • These types of principles must be an integral part of any economic or trading agreement.

    • Take stakeholders’ viewpoints into account.


    Policy design cont d

    POLICY DESIGN (Cont’d)

    • Use both “carrot” (economic incentives) and “stick” (severe fines) approaches to ensure compliance.

    • Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be useful in policy design when evaluating policy alternatives using both nonquantitative and qualitative criteria where held principles are given higher priority.

    • Include an effective dispute resolution mechanism within which formal conflict techniques could be employed.


    Reliable infrastructure for societal systems

    RELIABLE INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SOCIETAL SYSTEMS

    Strong, equitable and reliable infrastructure is required to meet the basic needs of citizens.

    Society needs properly designed electrical systems, reliable water distribution systems, and other policies and programs for societal well-being and safety.

    Solid infrastructure provides a high-level playing field upon which people and organizations can compete or cooperate to economically produce high quality products and services that are sustainable.

    Society requires policies and rules that encourage ethical behavior to produce overall results which are beneficial to society and do not harm the environment.


    Particular research in ethical systems design engineering

    PARTICULAR RESEARCH IN ETHICAL SYSTEMS DESIGN ENGINEERING

    • Reform or replace trade agreements such as the WTO agreements and NAFTA, which only take into account the one-dimensional goal of economic gain.

      Society can prosper under policies that directly consider multiple objective needs that hold proper ethical values of both individuals and society at a higher level than profit maximization.

    • Only design intelligent and integrated systems that are ethical and effective.


    Ethical trade agreements

    ETHICAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

    • Follow principles of sustainable development.

    • Environmental standards and controls as well as other issues related to societal well-being must be incorporated into any trade agreement as binding clauses.

      Monetary fines and other sanctions can be used to punish violators using “stick” approaches.

      Financial and reputational “carrots” can be used to reward conformers.

    • This provides a level playing field for true competition to take place.


    Water corporations desire

    WATER CORPORATIONS DESIRE

    Certainty

    Permits sound economic planning

    Performance-based regulations

    Provides a level playing field within each type of industry.


    The global playing field

    THE GLOBAL PLAYING FIELD

    • Design a level global economic playing field resting on the foundations of environmental stewardship, key societal values, and reliable infrastructure.

    • Corporations and economic entities can openly compete according to their basic design and value systems of pursuing profit maximization.

    • The playing field would be entirely located within the realm of sustainable development so all economic competitors can claim they behave ethically according to their value systems.


    Win win resolution

    WIN/WIN RESOLUTION

    • Strategic analyses show that environmental and social education are required to encourage proponents of the Global Market-Driven Economy to become environmentally and socially aware.

      • Environmental and social concerns should be held at a higher priority than economic values in international agreements.

      • WTO and NAFTA must be radically restructured or else replaced.

      • Agreements should empower individuals and not large corporations and special interest groups.


    The lobbying dilemma

    THE LOBBYING DILEMMA

    • Citizens in both the USA and Canada have been essentially disenfranchised due to lobbying by large corporations and other interest groups.

    • Campaign donations by lobby groups win the loyalty of politicians.

    • Hence, electoral reform is urgently needed and only small campaign donations should be permitted by individuals.


    End of the cold war

    END OF THE COLD WAR

    Anatol Rapoport predicted that an enlightened Soviet Leader would end the Cold War.

    (1983 presentation at the University of Waterloo)

    The US Government was incapable of instituting real change because of its suffocating lobbying system.

    Soviet Premier Gorbachev stopped the ridiculous Clod War in 1990.

    Likewise, China has a unique historical opportunity to lead the world in green house gas reduction.


    Adaptive system of systems design to ensure robustness

    ADAPTIVE SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS DESIGN TO ENSURE ROBUSTNESS

    Deng Xiao Ping’s economic system design of the late 1970’s was highly successful in modernizing China.

    Global warming was not perceived as a serious physical systems problem at that time.

    If China does not update or replace its economic model to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the current economic system will dramatically fail.

    Require an integrative systems model that adapts to changing environmental and societal conditions.


    Enhanced decision making

    ENHANCED DECISION MAKING

    Engineering is all about design.

    Design is creative problem solving.

    Informed decision making to benefit stakeholders within a sustainable, integrative and adaptive system of systems perspective.


    Systems thinking

    SYSTEMS THINKING

    Systems Engineering

    Operational Research

    Management Science

    Decision Analysis

    Provide formal tools for addressing challenging large scale system of systems problems from a complex adaptive systems viewpoint.

    ……


    Strategic opportunities in systems engineering

    STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

    Expand the theory of system of systems engineering including complex adaptive system of systems theory.

    Tackle pressing global complex system of systems problems.

    Reference: Hipel K.W., Jamshidi, M.M., Tien, J.M., and White III, C.C. “The Future of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Application Domains and Research Methods”, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics – Part C: Applications and Reviews, Vol. 37, No. 5., pages 726-743, 2007.


    Global system of systems challenges

    GLOBAL SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS CHALLENGES

    Extreme Overpopulation

    Climate changeFood

    WaterInfrastructure

    PollutionServices

    DeforestationFinances

    EnergyIndustry

    Widening gap between rich and poor

    SecurityNuclear weapons

    WarUnknown unknowns

    ……


    American financial system

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

    Value system is in reverse.

    Society serves the system.

    Financial system should serve society.

    Unethical and unfair to individual citizens.


    American financial system1

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

    Removal of regulations protecting society.

    Market “fox” is guarding the chicken coop.

    System collapses from greed and indigestion.

    Robustness removed.


    American financial system2

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

    Subprime mortgages traded globally

    Mortgages lenders disconnected from the mortgage buyers.

    Unbounded uncertainty in this complex system of systems.


    Global warming

    GLOBAL WARMING

    Distorted value system.

    Economics is held at a much higher priority than humans’ life support system of systems.

    Atmospheric systems is highly unstable.

    Irreversible change may gradually or unexpectedly occur.


    End of the cold war1

    END OF THE COLD WAR

    Anatol Rapoport predicted that an enlightened Soviet Leader would end the Cold War.

    (1983 presentation at the University of Waterloo)

    The US Government was incapable of instituting real change because of its suffocating lobbying system.

    Soviet Premier Gorbachev stopped the ridiculous Clod War in 1990.

    Likewise, China has a unique historical opportunity to lead the world in green house gas reduction.


    Us medical system

    US MEDICAL SYSTEM

    Distorted value system.

    Profit maximization.

    The sicker you are, the more you pay.

    Unfair society.


    Canadian german and french medical system

    CANADIAN, GERMAN AND FRENCH MEDICAL SYSTEM

    Ethical value system.

    Universal coverage.

    Equal risk sharing.

    Everyone pays the same.

    Robust society.


    Insight

    INSIGHT

    An equal risk sharing, universal coverage, medical system can be designed using a:

    public,

    private or

    mixed system

    Design a system that can deliver in practice according to the underlying values of equal risk sharing and universal coverage.


    Effective medical system

    EFFECTIVE MEDICAL SYSTEM

    Decide upon underlying values.

    Design a system that works in practice according to culture, tradition, and other factors.

    Compare the various implementation designs according to criteria that reflect the underlying values.

    Improve system according to performance criteria.


    Opportunity for the globe and us leadership

    OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GLOBE AND US LEADERSHIP

    US President Barak Obama could use the financial crisis to meaningfully address climate change as well as other environmental and social issues.

    Institute an integrative and adaptive global governance system.

    A unique historical opportunity for the USA.


    China

    CHINA

    Bright highly educated leaders.

    An enlightened leader has the power to implement dramatic changes (ex. Deng Xiao Ping’s economic reforms of the late 1970’s).

    Increasing gaps between the rich and poor.

    Massive environmental problems.

    Huge investments in education and infrastructure.


    Trade versus the environment strategic settlement from a systems engineering perspective

    USA

    Legacy of neo-conservative incompetence.

    Financial crisis gives chance of real reform by Obama.

    Smothering lobbying system stifles needed political initiatives.

    Setbacks in social and environmental reforms.

    Increasing gap between the rich and poor.

    A spirit of innovation and entrepreneurship.


    European union

    EUROPEAN UNION

    Informed, highly trained leaders.

    Cooperatively implemented real free trade over many years.

    Socially and environmentally responsible.

    Fairness in wealth sharing.

    Huge investment in research and development.

    A race to the top.


    Modeling philosophy of the graph model for conflict resolution

    MODELING PHILOSOPHY OF THE GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION

    • Determine the best a decision maker can do on his or her own.

    • Check if the decision maker can do even better by cooperating with others through coalition formation.


    Multiple criteria decision analysis mcda

    Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

    • Consideration of both quantitative and qualitative criteria when comparing alternative solutions to a problem

    • Screening out inferior solutions from further analyses

    • Modelling interdependencies among alternatives when considering combinations of alternatives as possible final choices

    • Handling uncertainty using fuzzy set theory and rough sets

    • Classification of alternatives according to nominal categories

    • MCDA-based bargaining and negotiation

    • Sorting according to case-based reasoning

    • Decision support systems in MCDA


    Applications

    Applications

    • Case studies to assess and demonstrate the validity of new methodologies and their implementation

    • Studies in bargaining and negotiation in water resources management, environmental engineering, labour-management relationships, international trade, privatization of public infrastructure, sustainable development, brownfield redevelopment, and other fields

    • Practical policies for improving environmental enforcement

    • Multiple criteria decision analysis in water supply, pollution clean-up, waste disposal, infrastructure privatization, and other alternative-choice problems


  • Login