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The Public and Foreign Policy

The Public and Foreign Policy. Public Opinion Trends Elections The Media. Public Opinion Trends. Elites, Interested- & Disinterested-Public http://www.ccfr.org/globalviews2004/index.htm Honeymoon Rally ‘Round the Flag Halo Public Diplomacy (PsyOps). Prudent Public?.

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The Public and Foreign Policy

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  1. The Public and Foreign Policy • Public Opinion Trends • Elections • The Media PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

  2. Public Opinion Trends • Elites, Interested- & Disinterested-Public • http://www.ccfr.org/globalviews2004/index.htm • Honeymoon • Rally ‘Round the Flag • Halo • Public Diplomacy (PsyOps) PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

  3. Prudent Public? • Bruce Jentleson: Public knows what it likes concerning the use of force • Impose Foreign Policy Restrain (FPR) • Force Internal Political Change (IPC) PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

  4. Support Use of Force? • Libya 1986: IPC & FPR • Polls higher if “asked” FPR • Panama 1989: IPC • Support after operation: Halo • Persian Gulf Reflagging 1987: FPR • Support high, despite RR low credibility • Nicaragua mid-1980s: IPC • Support Low PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

  5. One more good one-- • Afghanistan late-1980s: IPC & FPR • Mixed goals, mixed support • Support for US-supported Mujaheddin fell to all-time lows following Soviet withdrawal in October 1988 PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

  6. Elections and Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy can affect elections: • “Daisy” commercial in 1964 • Nixon’s Secret Plan to end the Vietnam War • Dukakis’s tank in 1988 • Re-Made Daisy in 2000 • Iraq, OBL, in 2004?? • See http://www.ammi.org/livingroomcandidate/ PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

  7. Other Electoral Trends • Rallies, Haloes, and the Diversionary Theory of War? • Wag the Dog • Carter and the Hostages in 1980 • Bush and Saddam in summer 1992 • U.S.S. Cole in 2000? • Keep it off the Agenda? • Bosnia in 1995? • Middle East in 2000? PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

  8. How Elections Affect Foreign Policy • Elections pick winners • Winners bring people into government with them • Elected and appointed officials make policy decisions • They (President and Congress) put people into the Judiciary • Bush differences from Gore, e.g. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

  9. Media and Foreign Policy • Media as a Medium • Information deliverers and Opinion shapers? • Views also shaped President via persuasive communication and symbolic politics • “Indexing” • “Priming” • Presidential Advantages • Media not a Monolith PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

  10. Media Bias? • Liberal bias? • Business bias? • CNN Effect • Uncritical acceptance and incomplete • Stenographers? PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005

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