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Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation

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Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation. Why?. Climate risk management is currently focused on timescales of < 1 year and > 20 years Many policy, planning and investment decisions occur on timescales of 1-20 years

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Presentation Transcript
slide2
Why?
  • Climate risk management is currently focused on timescales of < 1 year and > 20 years
  • Many policy, planning and investment decisions occur on timescales of 1-20 years
  • Climate change is accelerating – emerging risks and variability
    • Need to merge adaptation and risk reduction on these “real world” time scales
slide3
What?
  • Development of “seamless” climate forecasts and scenarios for 1 -> 10 -> 20 year timescales
  • Marrying of seasonal and climate change methods, tools and communities
  • Merging of data sources – observational, decadal predictions, centennial projections, downscaling
  • A focus of extreme events
  • Close integration with users in agriculture, water, food security, at multiple levels
example r esearch questions
Example Research Questions
  • Where, if anywhere, are decadal predictions useful – in which regions, at what time scales, and for which agricultural drivers and communities?
  • At what time horizon does a shift occur from forecasts to scenarios?
  • What are the most appropriate analysis and communication methods, and what can we adopt from the seasonal and climate change scenarios communities?
  • What kinds of adaptation and risk reduction methods in the agriculture and food sector would be appropriate on these timescales?
  • Who are the beneficiaries of multi-year climate data, what are their information needs and to what extent can these needs be met?
fit to ccafs agenda
Fit to CCAFS Agenda
  • Science integration – climate and climate applications, hydrology, agriculture, policy and planning…
  • Development – climate compatible development, disaster risk reduction
  • Climate change agenda – critical timescale gap
  • Agriculture and food – addresses climate as a driver of production, GDP, livelihoods, and planning agricultural adaptation
  • Provide critical information for CG researchers
  • Will link to multiple stakeholders – applied research, policy and planning, industry and farmers
  • Deliver data - using state-of-art methods – on CG-relevant climate change and variability on timescales of 1-20 (30) years
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