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LOOKING FOR ALPHA? UNEXPECTED OPPORTUNITIES IN NORTH AMERICA September 2007 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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LOOKING FOR ALPHA? UNEXPECTED OPPORTUNITIES IN NORTH AMERICA September 2007. Tom Walker Director, Martin Currie Investment Management. NORTH AMERICA. How investors see it: Underperforming Slow growth End of Era How Martin Currie sees it: 40 great stocks.

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LOOKING FOR ALPHA? UNEXPECTED OPPORTUNITIES IN NORTH AMERICA September 2007

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LOOKING FOR ALPHA?

UNEXPECTEDOPPORTUNITIES IN NORTH AMERICA September 2007

Tom Walker

Director,

Martin Currie Investment Management


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NORTH AMERICA

  • How investors see it:

    • Underperforming

    • Slow growth

    • End of Era

  • How Martin Currie sees it:

    • 40 great stocks


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    INVESTORS JUST DON’T WANT TO KNOW

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Source: Lipper Hindsight. Bid to bid, total returns in Sterling on a cumulative basis to 30 August 2007.


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    PERCEPTION………

    WAR IN IRAQ


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    REALITY……


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    THE DOMINO EFFECT


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    THE DOLLARAt top of 25 year range versus sterling

    Source: Bank of England. As at 31 August 2007.


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    WHAT PRICE A BIG MAC ?Is it actually sterling that is overvalued?

    Source:Economist.com;Prudential Equity Group,LLC. As at 31 January 2007


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    THE DEFICITUS nominal goods and services exports and imports, Y/Y%

    Source Citigroup, August 2007


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    2.5

    2.0

    1.5

    12 months change, %

    1.0

    1995

    2007

    1997

    2001

    2003

    2005

    1999

    INFLATION Inflation is trending down

    Core PCE Deflator

    1.0

    Source: Bear Sterns. As at 31 August 2007.


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    HOUSEHOLD DEBTStill a lot of resets ahead of us

    Source: JP Morgan.


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    HOUSING (MONTHS OF INVENTORY)Home sales will take time to recover

    Source: National Association of Realtors.


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    …BUT DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE US CONSUMERUS Household Net Worth (ex Real Estate)

    Source: FRB Flow of Funds and Citi Investment Research – US Equity Strategy


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    OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AMERICAN EQUITIES

    • North American economy has slowed but Q1 2007 may well be the low point

    • The US dollar is at a level which makes US companies highly competitive

    • Inflation is trending back within Fed target range

    • Interest rates declining – supportive of equity valuations

    • Earnings growth robust across many sectors – some obvious exceptions

    GDP growth compared

    Source: Consensus Economics. As at 13 August 2007.


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    WHY MARTIN CURRIE FORNORTH AMERICA?

    • North American fund fits our ‘Big Boutique’ business model:

      • Stock-picking approach

      • Focused portfolio – 40 stocks

      • Partnership between a proven product manager and an experienced team of sector managers

      • Manager’s remuneration linked directly to performance

    • Distinctive investment process – combining numerical screening, fundamental research and committed stock selection

    • Exceptional investment performance – including on a risk-adjusted basis

    • Stands out in a sector with few consistent performers

    • Positioned to take advantage of resurgence of large-caps

    Tom Walker

    Lead manager, North America


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    PERFORMANCE IN PERSPECTIVETop-quartile ranking in peer group

    vs sector average 19.1%

    vs MSCI North America 5.9%

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Returns are in sterling and net of fees.

    Source: Lipper Hindsight. Bid-bid basis with net income reinvested over period shown. * From 30 April 2002 to 31 August 2007.

    Although Martin Currie complies with the GIPS standards, and each fund return is calculated using the recommended methodology, the method of calculation used in this presentation falls outside the scope of the GIPS standards.


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    NORTH AMERICAN PORTFOLIOS

    An experienced and well-resourced team

    Product managers

    Risk management

    Performance analytics group

    (Team of 12)

    Dealing

    (Team of 10)

    Tom Walker

    Lead-manager, North America

    David Forsyth

    Co-manager, North America

    Dan Gardner

    Head of risk management

    Sector manager team

    Paul Sloane

    Financials

    Chris ButlerHead of sector managers, materials

    Duncan Goodwin

    Energy

    Rachel Nimmo

    Healthcare

    Len Riddell

    Financials

    Jamie Mariani

    Telecoms

    Elaine Morrison

    Consumer

    Rahul SharmaConsumer

    Luca Fasan,

    Technology, media & telecoms

    Toby McCullagh

    Consumer

    Jane CoullTechnology

    Ken Hughes

    Industrials

    Donald Barlow

    Utilities


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    PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS

    Relative stock and sector weightings

    Sector weightings %

    Industrials

    Information technology

    Utilities

    Telecommunication services

    Energy

    Consumer staples

    Materials

    Consumer discretionary

    Healthcare

    Financials

    Source: Martin Currie. As at 31 July 2007. Index: MSCI North America.This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or invitation to subscribe for shares in any of the stocks.


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    CORNING

    Corning

    Corning relative to S&P 500 Composite Index

    • Global leader in glass technology

    • Flat screen television sales still growing strongly

    • Under appreciated fibre optic, diesel emission control and polysilicon businesses

    Source:Thomson Financial Datastream as at 31 August 2007.

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or invitation to subscribe for shares in the stock.


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    GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR

    Gildan Activewear

    Gildan Activewear relative to S&P 500/TSX Composite Index

    • Leader in volume T-shirt production, also socks and underwear

    • Make ‘em cheap – but in Central America, not China

    • Quality company, conservatively managed and under researched

    Source:Thomson Financial Datastream as at 31 August 2007.

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or invitation to subscribe for shares in the stock.


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    CVS

    CVS

    Price relative to S&P 500 Composite Index

    • Leading food and drug retailer – 100% domestic US sales

    • Beneficiary of growth in use of low cost generic drugs

    • Experienced acquirer and integrator of businesses

    Source:Thomson Financial Datastream as at 31 August 2007.

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or invitation to subscribe for shares in the stock.


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    CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY

    Canadian Pacific Railway

    Canadian Pacific Railway relative to S&P 500/TSX Composite Index

    • Domestic assets – but China, et al, are the engine of growth

    • Strong trends in operating efficiency

    • Attractive valuations ….. and Warren Buffet thinks so too !

    Source:Thomson Financial Datastream as at 31 August 2007.

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or invitation to subscribe for shares in the stock.


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    SUMMARYAlpha is alive and well in North America

    • Alpha is in companies – not politics and macro economics

    • North American companies are selectively the best in the world

    • Our investments are quoted in North America, a dynamic and growing environment….

    • ….but many are global operators thriving in the global market place


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    REGULATORY INFORMATION

    Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (MCIM) has issued and approved this presentation in its capacity as investment adviser. MCIM is referred to throughout as ‘Martin Currie’. MCIM is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the Investment Management Association. Registered in Scotland (no 66107), registered address Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh, EH1 2ES.

    The presentation may not be distributed to third parties and is intended only for the attendee. The presentation does not form the basis of, nor should it be relied upon in connection with, any subsequent contract or agreement. It does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or otherwise acquire shares in any of the products mentioned.

    The information contained in this presenter has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy. But no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Martin Currie has procured any research or analysis contained in this presentation for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

    Martin Currie Investment Funds (MCIF) Martin Currie North American Fund (the fund) is a subfund of an Open-ended investment company (Oeic). The fund is referred to throughout as the North American Fund. Martin Currie Unit Trusts Limited is the Authorised Corporate Director for the Oeic, and is an affiliate of MCIM. It is also authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. MCIM is the investment adviser to the fund. In the exceptional event that an Oeic subfund’s liabilities exceed its net assets, the Oeic structure allows for these liabilities to be allocated across other subfunds in the Oeic. Investment in the fund can only be made in accordance with the terms and conditions outlined in the Simplified Prospectus or Key features document available at the time of investing.

    Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Markets and currency movements may cause the value of investments and income from them to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested when you decide to sell your investments. There can be no assurance that you will receive comparable performance returns, or that investments will reflect the performance of the stock examples, contained in this presenter. Movements in foreign exchange rates may have a separate effect, unfavourable as well as favourable, on the gain or loss otherwise experienced on an investment.

    Funds which invest in one country carry a higher degree of risk than those with portfolios diversified across a number of markets.

    Investment in the securities of smaller and unquoted companies can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investment in larger, more established, companies. In particular, smaller companies often have limited product lines, markets or financial resources and their management may be dependent on a smaller number of key individuals. In addition, the market for stock in smaller companies is often less liquid than that for stock in larger companies, bringing with it potential difficulties in acquiring, valuing and disposing of such stock. Proper information for determining their value, or the risks to which they are exposed, may not be available.

    Investment in derivative instruments, including futures, options or contracts for differences, carries a high risk of loss, the markets in these investments being very volatile. A relatively small adverse market movement may result not only in the loss of the original investment but also in unquantifiable further loss exceeding any margin deposited. Warrants often involve a high degree of gearing so that a relatively small movement in the price of the security to which the warrant relates may result in a disproportionately large movement, unfavourable as well as favourable, in the price of the warrant.

    Performance information - with the exception of any figures calculated on a fund's net asset value, which fall outside the scope of the GIPS standards, all performance information calculated by Martin Currie complies with the GIPS standards.


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