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Natural Gas Demand Presentation by Mignon Marks, California Energy Commission

Natural Gas Demand Presentation by Mignon Marks, California Energy Commission. * Summary of demand chapter. * Plans for next report. Natural Gas Demand in the U.S. Natural Gas Demand in the Western U.S. Electricity Generation. All Other Sectors.

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Natural Gas Demand Presentation by Mignon Marks, California Energy Commission

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  1. Natural Gas Demand Presentation by Mignon Marks, California Energy Commission * Summary of demand chapter * Plans for next report

  2. Natural Gas Demand in the U.S.

  3. Natural Gas Demand in the Western U.S. Electricity Generation All Other Sectors

  4. Projected Generator Output in the WECC Region

  5. Key Assumptions —New Electricity Generation in the West • California-Mexico 18,206 MW • Southwest 13,268 MW • Northwest 9,667 MW • Rocky Mountains 5,041 MW

  6. Natural Gas Demand Growth in California

  7. Projected California Gas Demand1997 — 2012 • Electricity generation 56% increase • Non-core customers 7% increase • Core customers 72% increase

  8. Projected Gas Demand for Electricity Generation in California

  9. Plans for Next Gas Forecasts • North American demand • Energy Information Administration’s 2002 data • California demand • Integrated Energy Policy Report • Posted  February 11, 2003 • Workshop  February 25, 2003 • Western U.S. electricity generation demand

  10. Changing Assumptions • Substantial reductions for 2002-2005 • Most severe reductions  outside California • Total new additions  20% drop for 2002-2012 • Renewable Portfolio Standard

  11. Impacts of New Electricity Generators on Gas Demand • Initially, new units displace older, less efficient ones • Local requirements limit displacement • Gas-demand volumes unaffected by excess new generation • New capacity serves incremental load growth • Locations of new gas-fired units affect gas demand

  12. Lowered Estimates of Gas-fired Additions in the WECC Region 2002-2012 (MW) -732 -2762 Canada 2002-2005 2002- 2012 -2924 Rocky Mountains -2789 +422 -2343 Pacific Northwest 2002- 2012 2002- 2005 2002-2005 2002-2012 -96 -2480 -1239 -3007 California 2002-2005 2002- 2012 Southwest Aug 2002 forecast Jan 2003 forecast 2002- 2012 2002- 2005

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