The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing
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The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing -looking to the past to inform the future- Stockholm, Sweden – 19 th September 2013 Dr Phil Reeves – lead consultant, Econolyst. Contents (50-minutes). A personal introduction Agreeing terms (AM or 3DP)

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The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing

-looking to the past to inform the future-

Stockholm, Sweden – 19th September 2013

Dr Phil Reeves – lead consultant, Econolyst


Contents 50 minutes
Contents (50-minutes) Printing

  • A personal introduction

  • Agreeing terms (AM or 3DP)

  • The principles of layer manufacturing explained

  • Technology applications and trends

  • The business drivers to technology adoption (users)

  • Looking at the consumer 3D Printing Eco-system (suppliers)

  • Projecting out the future


About econolyst
About Econolyst Printing

  • Econolyst is a UK based consultancy & research firm dedicated to the 3DP & Additive Manufacturing

  • Established 2003

  • Team of Engineers, designers, economists, mathematician, software developers, retail & HR people

  • Partnership with Nottingham University for technology development & materials characterisation

  • Work across the Western Europe, Scandinavia, USA, the Middle East & Far East

  • Fortune 500 client base


What do we do
What do we do Printing

  • Help companies ideate & embed AM/3DP products into their brands, value chains & supply chains

  • Help AM software, technology & materials vendors with their technology & market strategy

  • Advise public & private sector investors on the dynamics of the AM/3DP market place

Point Lobos Capital


Current stuff that keep us busy
Current stuff that keep us busy! Printing

  • Modelling the 10-year convergence of 3D Printing, open source electronics & robotics on the consumer electronics industry

  • Investigating the long terms innovation benefits for the wide scale adoption of consumer 3D printing in a professional automotive design environment

  • Modelling the current and future economics for the use of 3D Printing to support volume manufacturing

  • Technology mapping for the re-shoring of ‘digital footwear’ – technology & data pathways


The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3D Printing

-looking to the past to inform the future-



  • Q) Is 3D Printing the same as Additive Manufacturing? Printing

  • YES, but:

  • 3DP is typically associated with people printing at home or in the community

  • AM is typically associated with production technologies & supply chains

  • BUT they both produce parts by the addition of layers


What is additive layer manufacturing
What is Additive Layer Manufacturing Printing

3DP processes are automated systems that take 2-dimensional layers of computer data and rebuild them into 3D solid objects


Why is this layer thing so different
Why is this layer thing so different Printing

  • Subtractive

    • Material is successively removed from a solid block until the desired shape is reached (2.5M BC – Hominids)

  • Fabricative

    • Elements or physical material are combined and joined (6,000 BC – Western Asia)

  • Formative

    • Mechanical forces and, or heat are applied to material to form it into the desired shape such as bending, casting and molding (3,000 BC – Egyptians)

  • Additive

    • Material is manipulated so that successive pieces of it combine to make the desired object (1984 – Californians)


This is not a new concept
This is not a new concept Printing

  • 1902 - Peacock patent for laminated horse shoes

  • 1952 - Kojima demonstrated layer manufacturing benefits

  • 1967 - Swainson files US patent for dual light-source resin system

  • 1981 - Kodama publishes 3 solid holography methods

  • 1982 - Chuck Hull experiments with SLA

  • 1984 - Chuck files US patent 4,575,330

  • 1986 - 3D Systems formed, others follow

  • 1987 - Rapid Prototyping became a commercial reality

  • 1990 - Layer manufactured parts used as casting patterns

  • 1995 - Layer manufactured parts used as tools

  • 2000 - Layer manufactured parts used as production parts

  • 2011 – 45,000 ALM machines globally (in total since 1984)

  • 2012 – 45,000 new machines sold in 1-year


How do alm process build layers

Wire feed Printing

Infrared

Jet & Flash

Solvent jetting

Laser spot

E-Beam

Photocurable

Powder bed

DMD/DLP

Binder jetting

Laser

Powder feed

Extruded

Jetting

How do ALM process build layers

Thermally

Cut from stock

How to make a layer

Chemically


Commercial alm systems in 2013
Commercial ALM systems in 2013 Printing

  • Sintermask

  • High Speed sintering

  • 3D Systems - SLS

  • EOS - LS & DMLS

  • Phenix, Concept Laser, Realizer, Renishaw, SLM Solutions - SLM

  • Arcam EBM

  • Sciaky EBM3

  • Stratasys – FDM

  • MakerBot clones

  • Optomec – LENS

  • Accufusion - LC

  • Solidscape

  • 3D Invision DP

  • Objet – Polyjet

  • 3D Invision HR/XT

  • Voxel Jet – PM

  • 3D Systems – SLA

  • Nextfactory – Digiwax

  • DMEC - SLA

  • Solidica – Ultrasonic compaction

  • Mcor Matrix

  • CAM-LEM CM100

  • Z-Corp – 3DP

  • ProMetal

  • F-Cubic

  • EnvisionTEC – Perfactory

  • EnvisionTEC – Vanquish

  • 3D systems – Vflash

  • DWS – Micro SLA

  • Asiga - Pica


So what can we print after 29 years

Metallic materials Printing

Polymeric materials

Ceramic materials

Organic materials

Aluminium

Tool Steel

Polyphenylsulfone

Polycarbonate

PMMA

Ceramic (nano) loaded epoxies

PEEK

Titanium

Filled PA

ABS

Polyamide (nylon)

Cobalt Chrome

Thermosetting epoxies

Inconel

Copper

Aluminium loaded polyamide

ULTEM

Graphite

Plaster

Silica (sand)

Stainless steel

Beta-Tri calcium Phosphate

Hastelloy

Silicon Carbide

Gold / platinum

Zirconia

Alumina

Mullite

Tissue / cells

Waxes

So what can we print after 29-years?


3dp is just an enabler many applications
3DP is just an enabler – many applications Printing

Prototypes (Rapid Prototyping)

Casting Patterns (Rapid Casting)

Tool cavities (Rapid Tooling)

Direct Parts (Additive Manufacturing)


But what about the value
But what about the value Printing

Rapid Prototyping $$

Rapid Casting $

Rapid Tooling $

Additive Manufacturing $$$$$$


Why Printing is AM becoming

so important to manufacturers

(I want to be a user!)


The core business drivers to am adoption
The core business drivers to AM adoption Printing

  • Economic low volume production

  • Increased geometric freedom

  • Product personalisation

  • Improvised environmental sustainability

  • New supply chains and retail models

  • Increased part functionality


1 enabling low volume production
1. Enabling low volume production Printing

  • Enabled the economic manufacture of low volume complex geometries and assemblies

  • Reduces the need for tooling (moulds / cutters)

  • Reduced capital investment & inventory

  • Simplifies supply chains & reduced lead times


Example unit volumes of 1
Example – unit volumes of 1 Printing

  • Bentley is a subsidiary of Volkswagen

  • Vehicles from $250K - $1M

  • In-house polymeric and metallic AM capacity


Example low volume production
Example – Low volume production Printing

  • Problem – customer with limited mobility needed a reversed dashboard

  • Production substrate produced by RIM

  • Manual modification time consuming

  • Solution – Laser Sintered AM part with leathers and veneers veneers

Images courtesy of Bentley


Example low volume production1
Example – Low volume production Printing

Images courtesy of Bentley


2 maximising design complexity
2. Maximising design complexity Printing

  • AM enables the production of highly complex geometries with little if no cost penalty

  • Re-entrant features

  • Variable wall thicknesses

  • Complex honey combs

  • Non-linear holes

  • Filigree structures

  • Organic / genetic structures


Example delphi diesel pump
Example – Delphi Diesel Pump Printing

  • Conventional product manufactured by cross drilling an aluminium die casting

  • Multiple machining operations

  • Multiple post processing ops (chemical deburring, hole blanking, pressure testing)

  • Final product prone to leakage



Example conceptual diesel pump
Example – conceptual Diesel Pump Printing

  • Produce the part as one piece using Selective Laser melting on Aluminium


3 increasing part functionality
3. Increasing part functionality Printing

  • AM enabled multiple functionality to be manufactured using a single process

  • Replacing surface coatings & textures

  • Modifying physical behaviour by designing ‘mechanical properties’

  • Embedding secondary materials (optical / electrical)

  • Grading multiple materials in a single part


Surface design for bone ingress
surface design for bone ingress Printing

Material: Ti6Al4V

Build time: 16 cups in 18 hours

  • Implants (production)

  • Accetabular cups

Images Courtesy of ARCAM – www.arcam.com





4 product personalisation
4. Product Personalisation Printing

  • Individual consumer centric products, with customer input

  • Medical devices

  • Consumer goods

  • Cultural & emotional artefacts

  • Online design tools

  • Co-creation


Www makielab com
www.makielab.com Printing

  • Children engage with technology



5 life cycle sustainability
5. Life cycle sustainability Printing

  • Product lifecycle improvements in economic and environmental sustainability

  • Reduced raw material consumption

  • Efficient supply chains

  • Optimised product efficiency

  • Lighter weights components

  • Reduced lifecycle burden



Design optimisation for am
Design optimisation for AM Printing

Topologically optimised

Machine from solid billet

Images courtesy of Loughborough University

Complex lattice


How does the weight compare
How does the weight compare Printing

Scenario 1 – Machined from solid (0.8Kg)

Scenario 2 – Selective Laser melted lattice (0.31 kg)

Scenario 3 – Selective Laser melted optimised design (0.37 Kg)


Lifecycle environmental benefit
Lifecycle environmental benefit Printing

  • Example based on 90M km (Long haul) application


Sunday Times 13 Printingth Feb 2011


Example life cycle economic benefits
Example – life cycle economic benefits Printing

  • 0.49Kg saving per monitor arm

  • $1,500 per annum in fuel savings (today's prices)

  • $45,000 over 30-year aircraft life

  • Product life span 5-7 years (estimate)

  • Life-cycle economic saving $6.5K - $9K

  • Machined part - $500

  • SLM Part - $2,500

  • Capital investment repaid in 2-years…. 




6 supply chain realignment
6. Supply chain realignment Printing

  • New lean yet agile business models and supply chain

  • Distributed manufacture

  • Manufacture and the point of consumption

  • Demand pull business models

  • Stockless supply chains

  • Chainless supply chains (home manufacture)


Rapid retailing linking the internet to 3dp
Rapid retailing linking the internet to 3DP Printing

$50.00 each

60,000 month

$36M P/A


Figure prints 4 000 per month
Figure Prints – 4,000 per month Printing

$6.2-million (6-machines)


“But what about consumer 3D Printing?” Printing

(I want to be a supplier BUT - It’s all just Hype!)



The hype debunked

“you can print anything” Printing

“A new world order”

“Bigger than the internet”

The hype debunked


Bigger than the internet

“Bigger than the internet” Printing

Bigger than the internet……………..


How big is 3dp compared to www

THIS BIG Printing

How big is 3DP compared to www?


0 0002 3dp users to web users
0.0002% 3DP users to web users Printing

2,405,518,376 internet users

THIS BIG

60,000 home

30,000 commercial

Lots of opportunity !!!!

http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/


Will 3dp ever be bigger than www
Will 3DP ever be bigger than www? Printing

  • 2012/13 figures

  • 90,000 machines globally (max) in 2012

  • 288% annual growth (max)

  • 2,405,518,376 internet users in 2012

  • 46% annual growth

  • Global population 7,017,846,922 in 2012

  • 1.2% annual growth

  • 2025 convergence!!!! 


You can print anything

“you can print anything” Printing

You can print anything…………………….


But you can t print everything
BUT - you can’t print everything.. Printing

Dumb systems with dumb software

Geometric limitations

Thermal management issues


Consumer 3dp is getting bigger
Consumer 3DP is getting bigger Printing

  • www.compete.com



The 3dp ecosystem
The 3DP Ecosystem consumer 3D printing space?

Materials

Data management

Design solutions

Products

Machines

Integrated solutions


Front end software
Front end software consumer 3D printing space?

Materials

Back-end software

Design solutions

Products

Machines

Integrated solutions


Tinkercad front end design tools
TINKERCAD – front end design tools consumer 3D printing space?


Digital forming web constraint modelling
Digital Forming – web constraint modelling consumer 3D printing space?

This is a pall point pen

This is a bedside light

This is a lemon squeezer


Back end software
Back end software consumer 3D printing space?

Materials

Data management

Front-end software

Products

Machines

Integrated solutions


Aggregation sites
Aggregation sites consumer 3D printing space?

  • Website that broker the flow of digital 3D Printable date

  • Sometimes free, some pay-per-download

  • Some integrated with professional back-end 3D Print fulfilment businesses

  • Emerging platforms focused on consumer machines (3DHUBS)


Machines
Machines consumer 3D printing space?

Materials

Back-end software

Front-end software

Products

Machines

Integrated solutions



Formlabs
Formlabs consumer 3D printing space?

$2M working capital

Seed investment

Kick starter

Product

R&D

Concept


Materials
Materials consumer 3D printing space?

Materials

Back-end software

Front-end software

Products

Machines

Integrated solutions


People are sourcing and slicing materials
People are sourcing and slicing materials consumer 3D printing space?


Plastic isn t the only material
Plastic isn't the only material consumer 3D printing space?

www.chocedge.com


Filabot machines to process waste
Filabot – machines to process waste consumer 3D printing space?


Products
Products consumer 3D printing space?

Materials

Back-end software

Front-end software

Products

Machines

Integrated solutions



Integrated solutions
Integrated solutions consumer 3D printing space?

Materials

Back-end software

Front-end software

Products

Machines

Integrated solutions


Www makie me action dolls made in london
www.makie.me consumer 3D printing space?(action dolls made in London)


Figure prints big ticket integration
Figure Prints – big ticket integration consumer 3D printing space?


A 100b industry
A $100B industry !!!!!! consumer 3D printing space?

Materials

Back-end software

Front-end software

Products

Machines

Integrated solutions


All the drivers are pushing the right way

Reducing birth rate consumer 3D printing space?

Cloud based storage

4G and wireless

32% of the world online

The $20 computer

Increasing old age

Cloud based computing

Political instability

100Mb broadband

Shifting wealth

Increasing population

Social networking

Environmental concerns

Technological changes

Socioeconomic changes

Power & water consumption

All the drivers are pushing the right way


Also…… consumer 3D printing space?

Our world of 3DP/AM is changing!

“The only constant I am sure of is this ever increasing pace of change – Peter Gabriel 2000”


The world is changing
The world is changing consumer 3D printing space?

Removal of barriers

Access to finance

Access to innovations & skill

Routes to market


Machine prices are tumbling
Machine prices are tumbling consumer 3D printing space?

SLA Viper Si2 - $250K

Fortus MC400 - $150K

EnvisionTec

perfactory - $79K

GigaBot- $4K

Formlabs Form 1 - $3.2K

B9 Creator - $3.5K


Exponential growth 288 pa
Exponential growth (288% PA) consumer 3D printing space?


Material prices are tumbling
Material prices are tumbling consumer 3D printing space?

Makerbot ABS - $48 Kg

Injection moulding ABS - $2.5 Kg

Conversion $0.02 Kg

Stratasys ABS - $297 Kg


Capabilities are increasing accelerating

capability consumer 3D printing space?

10-months

14-months

18-months

4-months

Capabilities are increasing / accelerating

Replicator 2X

Replicator 2

Replicator

Jan 2013

Thing-o-matic

Sept 2012

Jan 2012

Cupcake

Sept 2010

RepRap

March 2009


Technology convergence

Barriers to technology adoption consumer 3D printing space?

Not good enough

Too expensive

Technology convergence

High

Professional

CAPABILITY

Consumer

Low

High

Low

COST


Forecasting the future
Forecasting the future consumer 3D printing space?

IP protection

Material Cost

Hardware cost

Laser power / scan speed

Print heads / capacity

Productivity (Kg/h)

2003

2008

2013

T0

2018

T1

2023 T2



You have to love what you do
You have to love what you do.. consumer 3D printing space?


The 3dp candidates
The 3DP candidates consumer 3D printing space?


Reverse engineer the parts
Reverse engineer the parts consumer 3D printing space?


Identify most appropriate solution
Identify most appropriate solution consumer 3D printing space?

  • Metallic

  • Selective Laser Melting

  • Direct Metal Laser Sintering

  • Electron Beam Melting

  • Direct Metal Deposition

  • Digital Metal Printing

  • Polymeric

  • Selective Laser Sintering

  • Stereolithography

  • Polyjet

  • Projet

  • Voxeljet

  • FDM

  • Size, volume, surface area

  • Loading

    • Structural

    • cyclic

  • Environmental conditions

    • Water

    • Detergent

    • Humidity

    • Thermal loading & cycling

  • Functionality

    • Water tight

    • Shock proof

    • Aesthetic


Am viability economic modelling
AM viability & economic modelling consumer 3D printing space?


Environmental lifecycle modelling
Environmental lifecycle modelling consumer 3D printing space?


Understanding the current bom
Understanding the current BOM consumer 3D printing space?


Product technology roadmaps
Product / technology roadmaps consumer 3D printing space?


Realities
Realities……. consumer 3D printing space?

Just not meant to be

3DP technology innovation

Cost parity


Realities1
Realities……. consumer 3D printing space?

Expensive personalised luxury

Acceptable price delta

No great improvement (don’t wait)


The next 10 years
The next 10-years consumer 3D printing space?

Just not meant to be

3DP technology innovation

Cost parity


Realities2
Realities……. consumer 3D printing space?

Currently 3D Printed on mass

3D Printed & assembled on the high street

3D Printed digital assemblies


Summary
Summary consumer 3D printing space?

  • Don’t promise your mum a 3D printed washing machine unless you know she is going to live until 2023

  • Start worrying (a lot) if you are machining metal cases for IPhones

  • Take AM seriously if you are engaged in activities involving the manufacture of high value, low volume parts today, and high volume tomorrow

  • Start developing a consumer 3DP strategy & an industrial AM strategy – they WILL converge

  • Look to the blue water – the red water is already getting very bloody ………..


Questions consumer 3D printing space?

Econolyst Ltd

The Silversmiths

Crown Yard

Wirksworth

Derbyshire, UK

DE4 4ET

+44 (0) 1629 824447

Skype: econolyst

[email protected]


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