First Results from FISTERA - WP 1 Review and Analysis of National Foresight Exercise Outcomes -

1. First Results from FISTERA- WP 1 Review and Analysis of National Foresight Exercise Outcomes - Michael Rader Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS) The ITAS FISTERA Team: Knud Böhle Brigitte Hoffmann (until March 2003) Carsten Orwat Ulrich Riehm

2. Contents • About ITAS • First Phase of Work Package 1 • What is Foresight? • WP 1: Key Achievements and Further Targets • IST Developments Needed • Key Technologies Identified • Summary of Other Findings • Outlook on Second Phase

3. About ITAS (Work Package 1 Leader) • ITAS is Institute in Karlsruhe Research Centre, large national research centre funded by central government (90%) and Land Baden-Württemberg (10%). FZK has over 3,000 staff; member of Helmholtz-Gesellschaft • ITAS has multi-disciplinary staff of about 50 working on • Sustainable development • Efficient use of resources • New Technologies and the Information Society • Concepts, methods and functions of problem-oriented research • ITAS also operates the German parliament‘s Office of Technology Assessment (EPTA member)

4. First Phase of WP1 • Review of eight foresight cases following a standardised format: • Austria, Czech Republic, France (Technologies Clés 2005), Germany (Futur), Hungary, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom (second cycle) • Broad variety of aims from draft national research plan (CR) to strengthening ties between actors in S&T or industrial orientation (E) • All studies except Sweden on behalf of government • One of the results: EU not a central dimension in the studies

5. What Is Foresight? • Forward-looking studies (Time horizon 10 to 30 years), resulting in “visions” • Usually with aim of providing input for decision-making on science and technology policy • Aim to involve stakeholders • Employs broad range of methods (delphi studies, scenario techniques etc.)

6. FISTERA: Workpackage 1Review and analysis of national foresights Key Achievements • Synthesis of selected foresight exercises at the national level and eight case studies (available on FISTERA website at http://fistera.jrc.es and on the ITAS workpackage1 site http://www.itas.fzk.de/eng/projects/fistera/wp1.htm) • Web site presenting detailed information on workpackage1 (http://www.itas.fzk.de/eng/projects/fistera/wp1.htm) • Collection of information on further IST-related foresight studies. Future Targets • Supplemented and updated synthesis of selected foresight exercises at the national level (February 2005)

7. IST Developments needed • More application-oriented than "cutting - edge" ISTs • Common concerns like interfaces and software for specific groups (e.g. elderly) & ISTs for health care, transport, environment, e-government • IT & bio meet • IT & media as engines of economic development , growing importance of IT in traditional sectors & e-content • Full understanding of human information processing, cognition & creativity

8. Key Technologiesidentified (amongst the studies)

9. Summary of other Findings • Also concern with cross-cutting issues with high priority for political decision-makers, e.g. privacy and vulnerability, sustainable development, education etc. • Major worries regarding loss of qualified experts . • It is difficult to make statements on unfamiliar technology • Need for studies of other type to pick winners – need to try new methods for stakeholder participation – WP2 could provide valuable basis • Nonetheless: Foresight having impacts on S& T policy, networking benefits also stressed

10. Outlook on 2nd phase

11. That‘s all, Thank you for your Attention!