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National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

National Transport Plan Workgroup for transport analyses. Freight modelling and policy analyses in Norway CTS-seminar - European and National Freight demand models 1 Mars 2011 Stockholm Oskar Kleven Project manager. National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023. Contents of this presentation.

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National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

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  1. National Transport Plan Workgroup for transport analyses Freight modelling and policy analyses in Norway CTS-seminar - European and National Freight demand models 1 Mars 2011 Stockholm Oskar Kleven Project manager National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  2. Contents of this presentation • National transport plan • Freight modelling system • Policy analyses • Further development National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  3. National Transport plan - history • The Ministry of Transport and Communication asked for one common transport plan (1997) • Co-operation between the four transport administrations in Norway • Norwegian Public road administration • Norwegian National Rail administration • Avinor (Stated owned Aviation company) • Norwegian National Coastal administration • National Transport Plan (NTP, 2002-2011) was the first plan that involved infrastructure plans for the four transport administrations • An instrument for setting priorities regarding construction, maintenance and operation of state infrastructure within and between all modes of transport National Transport Plan 2014 – 2034

  4. Some joint priorities • Priorities: operation, maintenance and renewal. • A comprehensive and robust national • transport network • Increased security for all transport • modes • Emphasis on light rail and public • transport in and around the cities • Improved sea transport and well • developed air transport, to reduce • transport costs throughout the country National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  5. One common transport model system • Consistency in demand modelling – same input in every project. Ex: Competition between different freight modes, evaluate effects on different transport modes ex. regarding changing the cost • Help to systematize the effects of a infrastructure/policy project • One forecast system for future planning of the transport network • The model does not necessary give the correct answer, but give an • contribution in the discussion on the effects and to give the input data for • cost benefit analyses National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  6. Commision Part 1: • Improve the national model for passenger transport • Improve the national model for freight transport Part 2: • Develop regional models for passenger transport • Develop a user friendly interface (models for passenger • transport) • Discuss the integration between the transport models and the • cost-benefit tool National Transport Plan 2014-2023

  7. National Transport Plan 2010-2019 organization National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  8. NTP 2014-2023 National Transport Plan 2014-2023

  9. The freight model system A: Disaggregation to allocate the flows to individual firms at the P and C end B: Models for the logistics decisions by the firms C: Aggeregation of the information per shipment to origin-destination(OD) flows, to be used in the network assignment National Transport Plan 2014-2023

  10. Use of transport models in the National transport plan • Forecasts for passenger and freight transport • Analyse the competition between transport modes • Corridor analyses • Basement for most of the figure’s in the report(Results from the forecast combines with statistics from Statistics Norway) • Input to cost/benefit calculation for each project recommended in the National Transport plan National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  11. Growth in freight transportForecasts National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  12. Use of transport models in the work with National transport plan Sensitivity tests for changing the modal split • Many model simulations were performed for NTP, to get a picture of the sensitivity of different measures that might have an impact on the modal distribution • This was done for several task forces: • Modal competitive interfaces • Freight nodes • All simulations were done based on base matrices for 2020 National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  13. Transport models Norwegian National transport plan Sensitivity tests • As-is (reference scenario), year 2020 • Increased length of crossing lines for single line railways This was done by increasing average train length to 600 m. • Effect of alternative capacities on railway lines • Reduced terminal costs (50 %) and loading/unloading times (25 %) for rail and sea. National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  14. Transport models Norwegian National transport plan Sensitivity tests • Increased draught in selected ports (Moss, Fredrikstad, Oslo, Drammen, Larvik, Porsgrunn, Kristiansand, Karmøy, Stavanger, Bergen, Vågsøy, Ålesund, Trondheim, Bodø og Tromsø.) • Reduced port fees: • Removal of cargo fees • Removal of quay and port fees • Increased fuel taxes for trucks (+100 %) National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  15. Sensitivity studies, freight nodes • Alternative port solutions for the Oslofjord area has been simulated, by only allowing container, roro, bulk and break-bulk in specific ports (5 scenarios) • Best solution for cost and sea transportation shares was «as-is» – the different solutions seemed logical National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  16. KVU Trondheim and Drammen • KVU: Evaluation of alternative conceptual choices for larger investments. • KVU Trondheim and Drammen: Evaluating alternative solutions for new rail terminal in counties • Freight flows were calculated to and from the Trøndelag and Buskerud counties and to and from terminals for rail and sea • Base scenarios: Free flow 2008 – 2020 – 2040 • 8 scenarios with different localisations, alternatives with different locations for rail and sea terminals (split solutions), and integrated solutions • Based on the model runs, also more detailed distribtuions flows were calculated • A specific scenario has been made to make cargo flows for 2020/2040 close to present scenario, as a reference scenario National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  17. Use of transport models in the work with National transport plan Analyses in each transport authority National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  18. Climate Cure • Domestic emissions shall be reduced by 12 to 14 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents: Shall not exceed 45 to 47 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents by 2020. • Presents various options and the consequences of these, without giving recommendations as to how this can be done. • http://www.klif.no/publikasjoner/2678/ta2678.pdf National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  19. Further plans for the National Freight Model system National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  20. DEMOLOG Detailed model for Commodity flows, logistics costs and mode choice WP1: Regionalisation of the model - zonal level - base matrices WP2: Terminal cost functions - a function of: Terminal type, size, technology, handling system, cargo types WP3: Improved Methodology for commodity flows - Utilize the CFS - Reconsider the 32 commodity groups WP4: Implementation of new commodity flow matrices - Implement the methodology from WP3 WP5: Environmental effects - Add a module that calculates the greenhouse gas National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  21. DEMOLOG Detailed Model for Commodity flows, logistics costs and mode choice • WP6: Elasticises in freight transport - Calculate price and time elasticities - Calculate cross elasticities • WP7:Compare outcomes from the Logistics model, with the Trans-tools model - Test different policy measures in both models • ------------- • Start: 2010 • End: 2012 • Financial partners: Norwegian research council of Norway and the NTP-administrations National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  22. User interface • Cube base is the user interface • Dataflow is programmed in Cube Voyager • New user interface spring 2011 • Discuss accessibility for different variables(cost functions) National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  23. Update base data • Update the cost functions from year 2005 to year 2010 • Include new versions of sea and road network • New commodity flow matrices • Establish matrices on vehicle level • Establish matrices on vessel level National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  24. Test team • Establish a test team • Involving different persons for head office and regions in the transport • administrations, TØI and SITMA • Establish at test project, new test versions will be tested at the same project National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  25. Summing up • The needs for transport models in the planning process are important • The discussion are more structured with results from the transport models • The results are not the solution, but a very important part of the discussion • The results from the models brings knowledge about the transport system into • the workgroups • Transport models combined with the statistics from other sources has been • successful • The use is important for further on financing the model development work • The cost benefit program must have a near connection to the transport model • For the Norwegian planning process its important to use the transport models • with integrity and reasonability National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

  26. www.ntp.dep.no www.ntp.dep.no\transportanalyser Oskar.kleven@vegvesen.no National Transport Plan 2014 – 2023

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