Recent efforts at ncc cma to develop a high resolution cgcm for seasonal forecast
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Recent Efforts at NCC/CMA to Develop a High Resolution CGCM for Seasonal Forecast. Yong Luo, Yihui Ding, Min Dong and Yongjia Song National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081, China.

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Recent efforts at ncc cma to develop a high resolution cgcm for seasonal forecast

Recent Efforts at NCC/CMA to Develop a High Resolution CGCM for Seasonal Forecast

Yong Luo, Yihui Ding, Min Dong and Yongjia Song

National Climate Center

China Meteorological Administration

Beijing 100081, China


Background

for Seasonal ForecastDuring the recent five years, National Climate Center/China Meteorological Administration has made an effort to develop a high resolution CGCM for operational seasonal forecast purpose by support of a National Key Project of Studies on Short Term Climate Prediction System in China;

 The model system has been completed at the end of 2000;

 Further evaluation of the model performance is still in process.

Background


Assimilation System for Seasonal Forecast

海气耦合模式系统

Post-Processing System

Global AGCM

RCM

Regional OGCM

Global OGCM

Assimilation

ENSO Model

Atmospheric

Assimilation

Oceanic

Assimilation


The wallclock time and speedup ratio of paralleling version 20 time steps at ibm sp

Node No. Wallclock Time (s) Speedup Ratio Efficiency for Seasonal Forecast

1 267.62 1 100%

2 134.24 1.99 99.5%

4 66.88 4.00 100%

8 37.09 7.22 90.3%

The wallclock time and speedup ratio of paralleling version20 time steps at IBM SP


AMIP-II run to validate the performance of atmospheric model for Seasonal Forecast

AMIP-II

Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, Phase II

Jan.1979--Feb. 1996 SST and Sea Ice


Validation of the performance of cgcm

A daily flux anomaly coupling methodology has been applied in the coupling scheme between atmospheric and oceanic model.

A 30 year’s integration of the CGCM has been finished.

Validation of the performance of CGCM


500hPa height (Jan of the 26th model year) applied in the coupling scheme between atmospheric and oceanic model.


500hPa height (Aug of the 26th model year) applied in the coupling scheme between atmospheric and oceanic model.


Precipitation (Jan of the 26th model year) applied in the coupling scheme between atmospheric and oceanic model.


Precipitation (Aug of the 26th model year) applied in the coupling scheme between atmospheric and oceanic model.


Experimental seasonal forecast by the AGCM applied in the coupling scheme between atmospheric and oceanic model.

SST: Persistent SSTA of February

Initial: 00Z March 16

Period: March 16 - August 31

Forecast: Precipitation and 500 hPa

height anomaly


Observation of jja 1998
Observation of JJA 1998 applied in the coupling scheme between atmospheric and oceanic model.


Forecast of jja 1998
Forecast of JJA 1998 applied in the coupling scheme between atmospheric and oceanic model.


Preliminary analyses of the model results show an ability in reasonably reproducing the current climatology and a potential in experimental seasonal forecast.


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