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Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: 2007 Results PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: 2007 Results. University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Automotive Analysis Division (formerly OSAT) Bruce M. Belzowski Associate Director and Assistant Research Scientist Sponsored by: Denso Corporation

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Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Powertrain Strategies

for the 21st Century: 2007 Results

University of Michigan

Transportation Research Institute

Automotive Analysis Division (formerly OSAT)

Bruce M. Belzowski

Associate Director and Assistant Research Scientist

Sponsored by:

Denso Corporation

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Powertrain Strategies

for the 21st Century

  • A research project focused on providing

  • the global automotive industry

  • with insights into the future of powertrains

  • A continuing study measuring expert opinions over many years

  • A global study measuring experts opinions separately across North America, EU, and Asia


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Powertrain Strategies

for the 21st Century

  • What makes this study unique?

  • Global panel of powertrain experts

  • Annual updates of forecasts and deep dives into current topics

  • All electronic survey administration and report out.

  • Weighted responses based on expertise of respondent and new methods to measure point estimates for forecasts


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

2007 Expert Survey

Sample Respondents:

36 managers20 CEOs, presidents, and vice-presidents

28 chief engineers and directors14 researchers and scientists 25 engineers and techniciansSample Respondents:

29 manufacturers45 suppliers44 other experts


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

CAFE


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Mandates and tax incentives are considered the most feasible, while gas taxes and mandates are considered the most successful

Less Feasible/Successful

More Feasible/Successful

Policy Instruments

Gas Taxes

Mandates (e.g. CAFE)

Feebates

Tax Incentives


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Experts in 2006 reported the CAFE standard for passenger cars would

increase 20% by 2015 and 38% by 2020

2006*

2015

2020

Miles Per Gallon

*Source:NHTSA CAFE Standard


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

In 2006, the CAFE standard for light trucks was expected to

increase 25% by 2015 and 44% by 2020

2006*

2015

2020

Miles Per Gallon

*Source:NHTSA CAFE Standard


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Foreign-owned manufacturers are considered more likely to meet the new CAFE goals

Less Likely to Meet CAFE goals

More Likely to meet CAFE goals

Foreign Owned

Manufacturers

US

Manufacturers


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Fuel Prices

(Influenced by a fleet CAFE of

35 mpg using an attribute-based

System)


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

The predicted price of unleaded regular gas for 2020 has increased by 8% in one year

2006*

2020 (2006)

2020 (2007)

Price Per Gallon

*Source:Energy Information Administration (Jan~Dec ’06)


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

The predicted price of unleaded premium gas for 2020 has increased by 8% in one year

2006*

2020 (2006)

2020 (2007)

Price Per Gallon

*Source:Energy Information Administration (Jan~Dec ’06)


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Experts report a wide range of possible prices for fuel in 2020

Unleaded

Lower Bound

Upper Bound

Premium

Lower Bound

Upper Bound

Dollars per Gallon


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Consumer Fuel Sensitivity in 2006 was rated close to current fuel prices in 2007

Consumer Fuel Sensitivity

At $3.95 per gallon, consumers will make fuel economy a primary concern in vehicle purchase.


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

In 2006, experts predicted growth in diesel and ethanol fuel for passenger cars for 2015 and 2020

2015

2020

Type of Fuel

Hydrogen

LPG/CNG

Ethanol

(>10% ethanol)

Diesel/Biodiesel

Unleaded

Percent Penetration


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

The dominance of unleaded fuel in light trucks is expected to decrease with the increase of diesel and other fuels

2015

2020

Type of Fuel

Hydrogen

LPG/CNG

Ethanol

(>10% ethanol)

Diesel/Biodiesel

Unleaded

Percent Penetration


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

In 2007, experts see continued growth in diesel and ethanol fuel use for light duty vehicles to reach CAFE goals for 2020

Type of Fuel

Hydrogen

LPG/CNG

Ethanol

(>10% ethanol)

Diesel/Biodiesel

Unleaded

Percent Penetration


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Powerplants

(Influenced by a fleet CAFE of

35 mpg using an attribute-based

System)


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

In 2006, the share of diesel and hybrid powerplants in passenger cars was expected to gain share from spark-ignited powerplants

2015

2020

Type of Powerplant

Electric

Fuel Cell

HCCI

Advanced Diesel

Hybrid

(plug-in/mild/diesel/full)

Spark-Ignited

Percent Penetration


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

In 2006, the decrease in spark-ignited powerplants in light trucks was represented in the increase in hybrid and advanced diesel powerplants

2015

2020

Type of Powerplant

Electric

Fuel Cell

HCCI

Hybrid

Advanced Diesel

Spark-Ignited

Percent Penetration


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

In 2007, experts report continued growth of hybrid and diesel powertrains for light duty vehicles for 2020

Type of Powerplant

Electric

Fuel Cell

HCCI

Hybrid

Advanced Diesel

Spark-Ignited

Percent Penetration


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

What would the 2020 powertrain distribution in light duty vehicles look like based on a sales year such as 2007?

Hybrid

24% (3,840,000)

Electric 2% (320,000)

~ 16 million Light Duty Vehicles in 2007

Spark-Ignited Engine

52% (8,320,000)

Fuel Cell 2% (320,000)

HCCI 3% (480,000)

16% (2,560,000)

Advanced Diesel


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Strategies and Technologies:

Weight Reduction and Battery Life


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

In 2006, experts reported a significant increase in the use of lithium-based batteries by 2015 and 2020

2015

2020

Type of Energy Storage

Zinc-Air

Flywheels

Hydraulics

Nickel-Cadmium

Ultracapacitors

Lithium Polymer

Lead-Acid

Nickel-Metal Hydride

Lithium Ion

Percent Penetration


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Experts expect advanced batteries to last at least 7-8 years by 2020

Type of Energy Storage

Lead-Acid

Lithium Polymer

Nickel-Metal Hydride

Lithium Ion

Years of Life


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Taking out 20 percent of the weight of a vehicle by 2020 will be difficult

Less Likely to be Able to Reduce Weight

More Likely to Able to Reduce Weight

20%

15%

10%

5%


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Powertrain Strategies

for the 21st Century

  • Other areas of analysis from 2006 study:

    • Alternative powerplants development challenges

    • Powertrain development cycles

    • Engine re-designs

    • Powertrain and Drivetrain Technologies

      • Number of cylinders

      • Diesel and spark-ignited engine technolgies

      • Super-charged and turbo-charged engines

      • Transmission mix

      • Drivetrain configurations

      • Electrical and electronic costs

    • Human resource issues


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Powertrain Strategies

for the 21st Century

  • Other areas of analysis from the 2007 study:

    • Advantages and disadvantages of E85 ethanol

    • Because of CAFE, the changes manufacturers must make in powertrain, design, and product strategy

    • The state of charge swing for advanced batteries

    • Additional costs of alternative powertrains

    • Globalization of powertrains

    • After-treatment technology penetration


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Powertrain Strategies

for the 21st Century

  • NEW Research Program:

  • Powertrain Innovation in the 21st Century

    • A National Science Foundation Grant

    • Studying the powertrain innovation process

      • How do companies develop the capabilities to create new products?

      • How do they partner with other companies in the R&D process?

      • How do companies manage their R&D portfolio to sustain competitive advantage?


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

UMTRI-AAD

  • Upcoming Event:

  • UMTRI-AAD Automotive Luncheon

    • Monday, April 7, 2008

    • Noon to 1:30pm

    • University of Michigan League

    • Topic:

    • The Cost of Improving Fuel Economy for CAFE


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

UMTRI-AAD

  • Upcoming Event:

  • Inside China: Understanding China’s Current and Future Automotive Industry

    • Tuesday, April 8, 2008

    • 9am to 5pm

    • University of Michigan, Rackham Auditorium, 1st Floor

    • Recent Research on:

    • The changing manufacturer landscape

    • Near term buyer preferences

    • New labor developments

    • Manufacturing capabilities

    • R&D and intellectual property developments

    • Vehicle and road safety statistics

    • Trends in imports/exports


Copyofumpowertrainstrategies results na autolunch 2007

Powertrain Strategies

for the 21st Century

Bruce Belzowski

UMTRI/AAD

734-936-2704

[email protected]


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