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Briefing on “ Flood Situation in the Country” August 05, 2009 Sequence of Presentation Monsoon Season Forecast Weather Outlook For The Next One week C. Latest River Discharge Position D. Present Reservoir Elevation Position E. Reservoir Water Storage Position

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Briefing on“Flood Situation in the Country”

August 05, 2009


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Sequence of Presentation

  • Monsoon Season Forecast

  • Weather Outlook For The Next One week

    C. Latest River Discharge Position

    D. Present Reservoir Elevation Position

    E. Reservoir Water Storage Position

  • Revised SOP for Raised Mangla Dam

  • Upto-date Damages



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INDUS RIVER SYSTEMWATER AVAILABILITY

WATER SOURCES

  • Snowmelt & Glacier Melt

  • Runoff generated from rainfall

    Annual Flows 144 MAF (178 BCM)

    High Flow Season (Apr. to Sep) 117 MAF (145 BCM)

    82% of Annual flows

    Low Flow Season (Oct. to Mar) 27 MAF (33 BCM)

    18% of Annual flows


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A. Monsoon Season Forecast

Ist: End June 2009

+10%(above normal)

2nd: July 04, 2009

- 10%(below normal)

3rd: July 16, 2009

-30%(below normal)


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A. Monsoon Season Forecast

Need For Revision in Seasonal Forecast:

-Rapidly changing met conditions over Pakistan;

-Due to development of El Nino phenomenon in

the Pacific Ocean;

-El-Nino is the abnormal warming of the Pacific

Ocean during some of the years;

-Developed very rapidly in June 2009;

-Likely to strengthen in the coming months;

-Likely to continue till next winter


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A. Monsoon Season Forecast

Likely Impact of El Nino:

-Impact on agriculture output and water

resources;

-When occurs it disturbs normal weather pattern

around the globe;

-In Pakistan it generally suppresses the monsoon

rainfall;

Note: Many countries including India have

revised their seasonal weather forecast



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C. Latest River Flow Position (August 05, 2009)

River Indus At: Inflow /OutflowFlood Category

(In Cusecs)

  Tarbela Reservoir 257,000 / 189,000 Normal

        Kalabagh 258,000 / 249,000 Normal

        Chashma Reservoir 250,000 / 223,000 Normal

        Taunsa 222,000 / 194,000 Normal

        Guddu 161,000 / 125,000 Normal

        Sukkur 113,000 / 56,000 Normal

Kotri 50,000 / 14,000 Normal

River Kabul At:

         Warsak 46,000 Medium Flood (F)

Nowshera 64,000 Medium Flood (F)

(Contd. next page)


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C. Latest River Flow Position (August 05, 2009)

River Jhelum At: Inflow / OutflowFlood Category

(In Cusecs)

         Mangla Reservoir 39,000 / 15,000 Normal

Rasul 8,000 / Nil Normal

River Chenab At:

Marala 79,000 / 44,000 Normal

        Khanki 42,000 / 34,000 Normal

        Qadirabad 35,000 / 13,000 Normal

        Trimmu 19,000 / 3,000 Normal

Panjnad 14,000 / Nil Normal

(Contd. next page)


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C. Latest River Flow Position (August 05, 2009)

River Ravi At: Inflow / OutflowFlood Category

(In Cusecs)

        Jassar 3,000 Normal

        Shahdra 16,000 Normal

        Balloki 38,000 / 6,000 Normal

Sidhnai 20,000 / 5,000 Normal

River Sutlej At:

         Suleimanki 17,000 / 2,000 Normal

Islam 3,000 / Nil Normal


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D. Reservoir Elevation Position

ReservoirM.C.L (ft.)Aug 05, 2009 Aug 05, 2008

Tarbela 1550.00 1531.00 1519.83

Bal. Available 19.00 (+11.17)

Chashma 649.00 647.20 646.20

Bal. Available 1.80 (+1.00)

Mangla 1202.00* 1197.60 1185.90

Bal. Available 4.40 (+11.70)

* Shall be revised to 1210.00


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E. Reservoir Water Storage Position

Reservoir Max. Live Storage On Live Storage

Storage Aug 05, 2009Left

(MAF) (MAF) (MAF)

Tarbela 6.849 5.766 (84.19%) 1.083

(1550.00 ft.)

Chashma 0.263 0.186 (70.72%) 0.077

(649.00 ft.)

Mangla 4.542 4.296 (94.58%) 0.246

(1202.00 ft.)

---------- --------- ----------

Total: 11.654 10.248 (87.94%) 1.406


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E. Reservoir Water Storage Position

Reservoir Max. Live Storage On Live Storage

Storage Aug 05, 2009Left

(MAF) (MAF) (MAF)

Tarbela 6.849 5.766 (84.19%) 1.083

(1550.00 ft.)

Chashma 0.263 0.186 (70.72%) 0.077

(649.00 ft.)

Mangla 5.072 4.296 (84.70%) 0.776

(1210.00 ft.)

---------- --------- ----------

Total: 12.184 10. 248 (84.11%) 1.936





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Available Information/Data

Forecasts:

  • Qualitative Forecast

  • Quantitative Forecast

    Real Time Data:

  • Flood Warning Stations Data

  • Weather Radar

  • Satellite Imageries



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Forecasts

Qualitative Forecast:

FFD shall provide qualitative forecast minimum 24-36 hours in advance of actual precipitation indicating the intensity of depression in relation to previous historical floods. Category of floods shall also be indicated.

Quantitative Forecast:

FFD shall provide Quantitative forecast about 12 hours in advance of actual peak describing range of peak and expected minimum and maximum volume of flood hydrograph.


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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR (Category-I Floods – 3 to 5 Lacs Cusecs)


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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR Category-II Floods – 5 to 7 Lacs Cusecs

Continued next page………..


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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIRCategory-II Floods – 5 to 7 Lacs Cusecs


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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR Category-III Floods – Above 7 Lacs Cusecs

Continued next page………..


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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR Category-III Floods – Above 7 Lacs Cusecs


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Liaison With Different Organizations

Chief Engineer Mangla.

Superintending Engineer (Hydrology)

WAPDA

Member (Water)

GM (P&D)

GM (Hydel)

C.E.(H&WM)

C.E. (DSO).

OTHERS

Chairman (FFC)

F.F.D.

D.C. Jhelum

D.C. Mirpur

Pak Army


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D.C.

MIRPUR

Mangla Dam Flood Data Dessimination

IRRIGATION

DEPARTMENT

MANGLA

HYDROLOGY

DIRECTORATE

MANGLA

POLICE WIRELESS

COMMUNICATION

MANGLA

PAK ARMY

MANGLA

D.C.O.

JHLEUM

WAPDA WIRELESS

COMMUNICATION

MANGLA

WAPDA WIRELESS

STATION SUNNY VIEW

LAHORE

NATIONAL FLOOD

FORECASTING

DIVISION LAHORE

TO ALL CIVIL

ADMINISTRATION


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Structural Flood Damages 2009 (Balochistan)

As reported by PID, Balochistan, damages occurred to structures are:

Protection Bund from Imam Ghundi to end of Airport:

40ft of Flood Protection Bund on Lehri River alongwith apron has been eroded.

22nd Distribution system (Gogi) at Lehri:

Some damages, occurred in Lehri area, have been reported however detail of damages is awaited from PID, Balochistan.

Khatoor Flood Irrigation scheme:

60ft Bhag Flood Protection Bund have reportedly damaged.


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Breach incident in Damani Dam in Balochistan

A breach occurred in Damani Dam due to heavy downpour of 88 mm during the night between July 22 & July 23, 2009 in District Barkhan Balochistan which resulted into flooding of nearby villages causing damages to houses and other infrastructure.

As reported by PID, Balochistan, neither any casualty of human life nor that of cattle head was reported. Similarly no damage to houses or other infrastructure could be ascertained. Nevertheless very few irrigated fields/bandits in the area were effected/breached due to excessive water stored at there.



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