Towards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance Centre

1. Towards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance Centre BURAK YAGLIOGLU Dr. ELİF KUTDEMİR, Dr. EGEMEN IMRE, ÖZGÜN YILMAZ

2. Outline • Introduction • Current Conditions and Standardized Operations • The European Collision Warning Avoidance Centre (ECWAC) • Conclusions

3. Introduction • Space assets becoming more critical for many aspects of the daily life • More small scale operators to launch space assets • Protection of the space assets • Prevention is better than cure • Well protected big players: Not enough! • Any collision in space > faster cascade > everyone loses • How to enable small players to protect themselves?

4. Environmental Characteristics Good prediction High risk Catastrophic results Reasonable prediction Very low risk Catastrophic results?? OK prediction Low risk Catastrophic results?? *However, it has to be taken into account in radiation shielding design and in the operations phase. †Based on the analysis performed using the ESA MASTER 2009 software.

5. Rough Assessment PoC > PoC threshold JSpOC Fine Assessment (Precise orbit data for target satellite) (CSMs, TLE data) PoC > PoC threshold Manoeuvre Planning Operator PoC > PoC threshold (Platform and Mission Constraints/Considerations) RADAR Manoeuvre Decision Flight Dynamics Post Manoeuvre Activity (RADAR data for chaser) Overview of Collision Avoidance Operations

6. Main Problem • While big operators are able to implement standard procedures with access to: • all sorts of data, • tools and sensors to check for possible risks and refine the data with further sensor measurements, most other operators have varying degrees of awareness and capabilities regardingconjunction prediction, analysis and collision avoidance manoeuvring.

7. ECWAC

8. ECWAC More Ground and Space Based Sensors Consultancy in S/C and Mission Design Better Collision Risk Indicators New Service

9. ECWAC Service Available to Everyone Service Available to Everyone Service Available to Everyone

10. Proposed Improvements • Better Risk Analysis Data (For Everyone) • Improved the observation sensor network for better quality • Standardized risk analysis tools through a common access point • Better and Standardized Manoeuvre Planning • Better understanding of the conjunction information • Standardized tools for manoeuvre planning • Standardized conjunction analysis tools to be made available during the manoeuvre planning stage

11. Proposed Improvements • Collision Avoidance as a Part of Routine Operations • A well established operational procedure with all sorts of necesssary information • The measures should be initiated as early as possible • The state of the conjunction event chain should be well documented and communicated • Collision Avoidance as a Part of Design • Enhance the flexibility of mission concept to account for the risk reduction operations • Establish a telemetry based system diagram including troubleshooting and problem indicators

12. Conclusions • Space debris problem is NOT going away! • Small operators are posing a significant threat for everyone (including themselves!) • Europe can lead the way by extending SSA: ECWAC! • Through ECWAC, more awareness, more information and more tools to be made available: • At design stage • During regular operations • When handling a conjunction event

13. QUESTIONS GRAZIE! burak.yaglioglu@tubitak.gov.tr