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Nuclear Weapons in Future and the Road to Abolition. Jasjit Singh Director, Centre for Strategic & International Studies, New Delhi. Cold War ends. NPT. Risks and Dangers . Old dangers remain, new ones increasing

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Nuclear weapons in future and the road to abolition l.jpg

Nuclear Weapons in Futureand the Road to Abolition

Jasjit Singh

Director,

Centre for Strategic & International Studies,

New Delhi


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Cold War ends

NPT

CSIS


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Risks and Dangers

  • Old dangers remain, new ones increasing

  • Large number of weapons to remain in arsenals for decades if not through the century since there isno movement toward abolition of nuclear weapons

  • Minimum levels of holdings still run the risk of rapid escalation to maximum exchange

  • New weapon designs will make NW more usable for war fighting and inherently unstable

CSIS


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Abolition of Nuclear Weapons?

  • Past focus almost exclusively on physical reduction and elimination. It must continue

  • “Political will” because of belief in the political and military utility of nuclear weapons does not allow movement toward disarmament

  • Need to address the “software” besides the “hardware”

CSIS


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What we require, then, is a concerted effort to build norms, inhibitions and barriers against the use and threat of use of nuclear weaponswhile we work to physically reduce and eliminate nuclear weapons

CSIS


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Abiding lesson of history

  • All major changes have taken place because of changes in ideas and beliefs:

    - Divine Right of Kings

    - Slavery

    - Colonial empires

    - Untouchability

    - Apartheid, and so on

CSIS


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A path not taken -a new Convention on an old model

  • The model: 1925 Geneva Convention

  • The rule: Ban the threat and use of chemical weapons

  • The conditions: No bar on production and possession (which were to be dealt with separately)

  • The exception: Use permitted in self-defence

CSIS


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Corollary

  • Universal doctrine of No-First-Use

    (A “second strike” capability was seen as the test of credibility of nuclear deterrence)

  • Nuclear postures and strategy of de-alerted arsenals, separated delivery systems and warheads

  • Non-use in battlefield scenarios

  • Other measures like FMCT, CTBT etc.

CSIS


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How can this be done?

  • Revive the UN General Assembly resolution since 1978 passed year after year with nearly 120 states supporting it

  • Generate support outside the UN system to press for a

    Convention to Outlaw the

    Threat and Use of

    Nuclear Weapons

CSIS


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