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Climate Change and Water Resources Challenge in California. Francis I Chung, Ph.D., P.E. Department of Water Resources. Outline . Challenges in Water Management CALSIM, DSM2, and CVGSM Interfacing CALSIM with DSM2 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Inputs for CALSIM and DSM2.

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climate change and water resources challenge in california

Climate Change and Water Resources Challenge in California

Francis I Chung, Ph.D., P.E.

Department of Water Resources

outline
Outline
  • Challenges in Water Management
  • CALSIM, DSM2, and CVGSM
  • Interfacing CALSIM with DSM2
  • Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources
  • Inputs for CALSIM and DSM2
water in california
Water In California
  • Population
  • Agriculture
  • Projected Water Shortage
two possible strategies to cope with climate change
Two Possible Strategies to Cope with Climate Change
  • Prevent or Minimize
    • Define Cause and Effect
    • Implement Prescriptive Actions
  • Adapt
    • Define Possible Consequences with Probabilities
    • Devise Adaptive Actions to Minimize Negative Impact
challenges in water resources
Challenges in Water Resources
  • Water Supply
  • Floods and Droughts
  • Sea Level Rise
  • Crop ET
  • Groundwater
  • Ecosystem
  • Water Quality
  • Power Generation
california s major water projects
California’s Major Water Projects

State Water Project

Central Valley Project (Federal)

Local

Figure from Bulletin 160-98

relationship between model outputs

DSM2

CA

  • Output
  • Flow
  • Stage (water level)
  • Salinity
  • Other water quality
  • constituents
Relationship between Model Outputs

CALSIM

Global Climate Models

  • Output
  • Reservoir operations
  • Project deliveries
  • Delta inflows and
  • exports
  • Output
  • Precipitation
  • Snowmelt
  • Soil Moisture
  • Evapotranspiration
  • Temperature

Outputs shaded blue provide input to the next model.

calsim
CALSIM
  • General-purpose water resource systems model
  • Developed by DWR’s Bay-Delta Office and the Bureau of Reclamation
  • Accounts for system operational objectives, physical constraints, legal and institutional agreements and/or statutes
  • It is a simulation model that uses a daily or monthly time step to look at reservoir release decisions and surface water allocations
salinity constraints
Salinity Constraints
  • CALSIM uses an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to compute Delta salinity
  • ANN relates flow (inflow and exports) to salinity
  • ANN was trained on historical data
  • ANN runs in a few minutes or less
groundwater modeling
Groundwater modeling
  • Groundwater elevations are simulated using multiple-cells
  • Multiple cell model emulates CVGSM, a quasi-3D non-steady finite element model of the Central Valley
  • Darcy’s law used for subsurface flow and stream-aquifer interaction
  • Unconfined (single) layer in Sacramento basin, and Confined/Unconfined (multiple) layers in San Joaquin basin
  • Multiple cell model calibrated against CVGSM
  • Continuity equations for multiple cell model imbedded directly as constraints in CALSIM
calsim hydrology
Calsim Hydrology
  • Hydrology is the time series estimate of Central Valley water supplies for areas tributary to the Delta at a future level of land use development
  • Historical 1922-1994 trace of precipitation (monthly)
  • Land use categories: Ag (crops), Urban, Native, and Riparian vegetation
  • Demands for water are land use based using consumptive use model
  • Local accretions calculated using a water budget for each area at a historical level and then modifying it for future land use level

Depletion

Study Areas

bay delta system

Redding

San

Francisco

LosAngeles

San Diego

Bay-Delta System

Sacramento

DSM2 Domain

Sacramento

River

Stockton

San

Joaquin

River

San

Francisco

Bay-Delta detail image from CALFED

running dsm2 to simulate delta conditions

QUAL

HYDRO

Delta Geometry

Initial Hydrodynamic Conditions

Martinez Tide

Delta Inflows and Exports

Delta Island Consumptive Use Withdrawals and Return Flows

Delta Structure Operations

Delta Geometry

Initial EC Conditions

Delta Hydrodynamic Conditions

Martinez EC

EC in Delta Inflows

EC in Agriculture Return Flows

Delta EC

Running DSM2 to Simulate Delta Conditions
dsm2 grid
DSM2 Grid

Image from USBR

GIS Group

design repeating tide vs realistic tide

Spring

Spring

Spring

Neap

Neap

Moon Phases

Design Repeating Tide vs. Realistic Tide
slide23

Interfacing

CALSIM with DSM2

slide24

72-year Hydrology

CALSIM

Project Island

Operations

2020 Demands

DSM2-HYDRO

Delta Barriers

Martinez Tide

DSM2-QUAL

DSM2-PTM

EC

DOC

Particle

Transport / Fate

slide25

Inputs for

CALSIM and DSM2

calsim input time
Calsim Input: Time
  • Monthly or Daily Time-step
  • Level of development
    • Agricultural acreage, growing season, etc.
    • Urban population
  • 1922-98 hydrologic events (adjusted to level of development)
calsim input physical constraints
Calsim Input: Physical Constraints
  • System representation
  • Reservoir storage & outlet capacities
  • Export capacities
  • Canal, conveyance and river capacities
calsim input hydrologic inflows
Calsim Input: Hydrologic Inflows
  • Reservoir inflows
    • Streams
    • Precipitation/evaporation
  • Local flows
  • Surface-groundwater interaction
  • Return flows
  • Forecasting
calsim input regulatory constraints agreements
Calsim Input: Regulatory Constraints & Agreements
  • Minimum in-stream flows
  • Export reductions
  • Delta salinity standards
  • Temperature standards
  • Delta cross channel operation
  • COA: Coordinated operations agreement
  • CVPIA b(2) protections
  • EWA protections
calsim input operating rules
Calsim Input: Operating Rules
  • Allocation priorities
  • Reservoir operations (flood control, rule-curve, carryover, balancing)
  • Project demands/allocation procedure
  • Non-project demands
dsm2 boundary conditions

Sacramento

River

Sacramento

Tributaries

Consumptive Use

Redding

Stockton

Tidal Stage

San

Francisco

Exports

San Joaquin River

San

Francisco

Los Angeles

San Diego

DSM2 Boundary Conditions

HYDRO

Flow

Velocity

Water Levels

QUAL

Constituent

concentrations

Bay-Delta detail image from CALFED

dsm2 hydro boundary conditions

Sacramento River

• Sacramento

Yolo Bypass

Eastside Streams

MartinezTidal Stage

Delta Island Consumptive Use

• Martinez

Exports

San Joaquin River

DSM2 HYDRO Boundary Conditions
  • Tidal flows from the ocean
    • Represented by stage (water level) at Martinez
    • Calculated from astronomical tide
  • Inflows from major tributaries
    • Precipitation and runoff are reflected in inflows, but are not directly input into DSM2
    • Provided by CALSIM simulation results or historical data
  • Exports and diversions
    • Federal, state, and local diversions
    • Delta Cross Channel Operations
    • Provided by CALSIM simulation results or historical data
  • Delta Island Consumptive Use (DICU)
    • Agricultural diversions
    • Agricultural return flows
    • Computed from a DICU model

Delta Cross

Channel

• Stockton

dsm2 qual boundary conditions
DSM2 QUAL Boundary Conditions

Sacramento River

  • Boundary conditions are required for each constituent simulated
    • Conservative constituents (e.g. EC)
    • Non-conservative constituents (e.g. DO)
  • Concentration of each constituent at each inflow boundary
    • Ocean (represented at Martinez)

Provided by historical data or estimates from an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

    • Tributary rivers and streams

Provided by historical data or other estimates

    • Agricultural return flows
  • Typically EC is simulated and then converted to other constituents due to lack of field data

• Sacramento

Yolo Bypass

Eastside Streams

Ocean sources

Delta Island Return Flows

• Martinez

• Stockton

San Joaquin River

concluding remarks
Concluding Remarks
  • Key Models on Water Management are available in California
  • Inputs to Models are needed to account for climate change
  • Scientific Uncertainties on Inputs need to be identified
  • Operating rules need to be developed to account for adapted operations
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