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Assessing Technology in a Global Context Clinton Andrews Past President IEEE Society on Social Implications of Technology (and Rutgers University) Technology Assessment Definition : Investigate likely impacts of technology choices

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assessing technology in a global context

Assessing Technology in a Global Context

Clinton Andrews

Past President

IEEE Society on Social Implications of Technology

(and Rutgers University)

technology assessment
Technology Assessment
  • Definition: Investigate likely impacts of technology choices
  • Purpose: Avoid unintended negative consequences, plan transitions
  • Conducted by: Government, Industry, NGOs, Academia
  • Methodology: Analytic deliberation with many variations
slide4

DELIVERED H2 COSTS OF VARIOUS TECHNOLOGIES

Current

Current

Current

Current

Future

Future

Hydrogen cost ($/kg)

Current

Future

Future

Future

Current

Current

Future

Current

Future

Future

Future

(GEA)

  • GEA = Gasoline Efficiency Adjusted – scaled to hybrid vehicle efficiency

NRC 2004

slide5

CARBON RELEASED DURING H2 PRODUCTION, DISPENSING & DELIVERY (FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES)

Kilograms of carbon per kg of hydrogen

NRC 2004

example hydrogen economy6
Example: Hydrogen Economy
  • Likely impacts: reduce air pollution, diversify energy mix
  • Unintended consequences: increase global warming & suburban sprawl
  • Conducted by: NRC, DOE, APS, EPRI, EU
  • Methodology: Technology roadmaps, expert deliberations, advocacy science
technology assessment origins
Technology Assessment: Origins
  • Marketing studies for new products
  • Governmental planning for security, economic development investments
  • 3rd party evaluations of business and governmental choices
  • Distinct national trajectories
  • Global approach?
u s experience
U.S. Experience
  • Laissez-faire capitalism: fix unintended consequences after the fact
  • Wartime technology planning (Civil War, WW I, WW II, Cold War): systems analysis
  • 1960s: apply systems analysis widely in government, critical science movement, environmental regulation
  • 1972 - 1995: Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, academic specialty
  • 1995 - today: pluralism, NRC, IEEE et al

Andrews 2002

european experience
European Experience
  • Mixed economies: efforts to plan
  • Military technology planning: long history
  • Post WW II: social democracies, focus on labor stability, reconstruction
  • 1990s: “baby” OTAs (esp. UK, Denmark, Netherlands)
  • Today: participatory assessments, public education, Europeanization of TA

Guston & Sarewitz 2002

japanese experience
Japanese Experience
  • Mixed economy, military planning
  • Post WW II: economic planning for reconstruction & export-led growth
  • 1970s: strong response to energy crisis
  • 1980s: MITI becomes world model for strategic economic planning & TA
  • Today: sophisticated industry-government collaboration on global technology roadmaps
  • Question: any public participation?
developing countries experience
Developing Countries’ Experience
  • Indigenous appropriate technology: Chinese biogas, Indian Enfields, Brazilian ethanol
  • Advice from bilateral & multilateral institutions: ADB, IBRD, USAID, etc.
  • Multinational corporations: from exploitation to mutual benefit in some cases
nations vary greatly
Nations Vary Greatly
  • Preferences: traditional/progressive, green/brown, …
  • Capabilities: large/small, rich/poor, …
  • Circumstances: producer/consumer, urban/rural, …
  • Technology assessment needs and practices must also vary widely
need for a global approach
Need for a Global Approach
  • Global economic integration: in capital markets, product markets, factor markets
  • Global unintended consequences: climate change, biodiversity loss, resource competition
  • But when to do technology assessment in a global context?
choosing when to globalize
Choosing When to Globalize
  • Centralize responsibilities to take advantage of scale economies, enforce widespread norms, pool risks, reduce spillovers
  • Decentralize responsibilities to allow experimentation, match local circumstances, encourage diverse civic cultures
  • Not all technology assessments should adopt a global view
resolving national global tensions 1 allocation logic
Resolving National-Global Tensions #1: Allocation Logic
  • If national interest & scope, then nation does national-level technology assessment
  • If global interest and national scope, then subsidize national-level assessment
  • If globally-relevant public-good or pre-competitive technology, then jointly do global-level assessment
  • Else if commercial technology, then nations or corporations do global-level assessments
resolving national global tensions 2 institutional models
Resolving National-Global Tensions #2: Institutional Models
  • Need a coordinating institution to assign assessment responsibilities-- funding?-- expertise?-- consensus on public-good distinctions?
  • Institutional models:-- federation: European Commission -- multilateral agreement: IPCC -- bilateral assistance: USAID -- Nongovernmental collaboration: IEEE 
resolving science politics tensions
Resolving Science-Politics Tensions
  • Manage boundaries between science and action so as to enhance salience, credibility, legitimacy of findings.
  • Requires active communication between experts and decision makers
  • Requires better translation across boundaries, use of ‘boundary objects’
  • Requires active mediation of conflicts, dual accountability

Cash et al 2003

resolving public private tensions
Resolving Public-Private Tensions
  • Technology assessment = public good
  • Marketplace under-provides it, so government must step in
  • But firms know the most, so play key role
  • Create balanced participation, enhance salience, credibility, legitimacy
  • Funding: “1% for ethics”, business tax, government sponsorship
adversarial decision making
Adversarial Decision Making

Decision Maker

Policy Position A

Policy Position B

Supporting Science A

Supporting Science B

Stakeholder A

Stakeholder B

Andrews 2002

conventional advising
Conventional Advising

Decision Maker

Expert

Policy Position A

Policy Position B

Supporting Science A

Supporting Science B

Stakeholder A

Stakeholder B

Andrews 2002

joint fact finding
Joint Fact Finding

Decision Makers

Policy Position BC

Policy Position AC

Stakeholder A

Stakeholder B

Experts A and B

Policy Position B

Policy Position A

Supporting Science B

Supporting Science A

Stakeholder A

Stakeholder B

Andrews 2002

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Global integration changes context of TA
  • Need to revise “who” and “how” of TA
  • Satisfy criteria of salience, credibility, legitimacy--not just technical adequacy
  • Question: Role for IEEE? Idea: IEEE Transactions on Technology Assessment
for more information
For more information
references
References
  • Andrews, C.J. Humble Analysis: The Practice of Joint fact Finding (Praeger, 2002) at www.praeger.com.
  • Ballard Co. website, 2004 at www.ballard.com.
  • Cash, D.W., W.C. Clark, F. Alcock, N.M. Dickson, N. Eckley, D.H. Guston, J. Jager and R.B. Mitchell, “Knowledge systems for sustainable development,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100(14): 8086-8091 (July 8, 2003).
  • Guston, D.H., and D. Sarewitz, “Real-time technology assessment,” Technology in Society 24:93-109 (2002).
  • National Research Council, Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use, The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2004.
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