Assorted innovations in earthquake early warning and rapid response

1. Assorted innovations in earthquake early warning and rapid response Sarah Minson

2. Why Assorted? • What we did • Real-time inversion for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS data • Jessica Murray, John Langbein, Joan Gomberg • Go see the poster! • What we’re doing • Crowd-sourced geodesy for earthquake hazard and process studies • USGS Innovation Center for Earth Sciences (ICES) • Benjamin Brooks, Jessica Murray, Carol Prentice (USGS), Bob Iannucci (CMU-SV) • GPU implementation of real-time finite fault inversion • ICES • Jessica Murray (USGS), Ole Mengshoel (CMU-SV) • Performance testing real-time finite fault inversions in Cascadia • David Schmidt (UW)

3. Real-time inversion for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS dataSarah E. Minson, Jessica R. Murray,John O. Langbein, Joan S. GombergUSGS Earthquake Science Center Special Thanks to: Brad Aagaard, Yehuda Bock, Brendan Crowell, AsafInbal, HirooKanamori, and Sue Owen

4. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) • Use data from near an earthquake rupture to warn population centers at a distance that shaking is imminent • Information can be transmitted at the speed of light but strongest shaking is carried by waves traveling ~3.5 km/s • Warnings can be used not only to alert people but to prepare infrastructure • Slow BART trains • Open fire station doors • Bring elevators to nearest floor

5. Earthquake studies • In real-time, determine basic information (location, magnitude) • Later, determine spatial distribution of slip • Involves 100s or 1,000s of free parameters in a highly under-determined and non-linear inverse problem • Really we want to do the full slip model in real-time • In real-time, missing basic information such as which fault is rupturing

6. Solution • Solve for slip AND fault geometry using semi-analytical solution

7. Crowd-sourced geodesy for earthquake hazard and process studiesBenjamin Brooks1, Jessica Murray1, Sarah Minson1Carol Prentice1, Bob Iannucci21USGS Earthquake Science Center2Carnegie Mellon University - Silicon Valley ICES

8. Introduction • Real-time high-rate scientific-quality GPS data is proving to be very valuable for EEW and rapid response • Very limited global distribution • Low quality GPS receivers are globally ubiquitous • Smartphones • GPS navigation in cars • Can supplement with low-cost community instruments (LCCIs) • Quake Catcher Network

9. Challenges • Huge errors associated with pseudorange-based GPS locations • Even huger errors associated with attaching GPS to humans • Communications issues • Data volume could be enormous

10. Caveat • This is an altruistic EEW system • Normally we use instruments near the source to warn humans at a distance • Here we use instruments attached to humans near the source to warn humans at a distance

11. To-Do • Fit displacement amplitudes • Earthquake location and Mw • Data resampling • Focal mechanism • Slip modeling • Detection? • Quality control? • e.g., Scripps group • Reuse real-time finite fault inversion Northing Easting

12. Thank you for listening!