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NERC 2012 State of Reliability Report

NERC 2012 State of Reliability Report. RPEWG Meeting. Salt Lake City, May 09, 2012. OUTLINE. Background NERC PAS & TADS WG System Risk Indicators 2012 State of Reliability Report Items for Discussion. 1. Background. NERC Reports 2008-2009 NERC 2008 TADS Report WECC 2008 TADS Report

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NERC 2012 State of Reliability Report

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  1. NERC 2012 State of Reliability Report RPEWG Meeting Salt Lake City, May 09, 2012

  2. OUTLINE • Background • NERC PAS & TADS WG • System Risk Indicators • 2012 State of Reliability Report • Items for Discussion

  3. 1. Background • NERC Reports 2008-2009 • NERC 2008 TADS Report • WECC 2008 TADS Report • NERC 2009 TADS Report • WECC 2009 TADS Report • 2011 Risk Assessment of Reliability Performance • 2012 State of Reliability

  4. 2. NERC PC/OC & PAS • Planning Committee (PC) • Event Analysis Subcommittee (EAS) • Performance Analysis Subcommittee (PAS) • Reliability Assessment Subcommittee (RAS) • System Analysis and Modeling Subcommittee (SAMS) • System Protection and Control Subcommittee (SPCS) • Operating Committee (OC): • Resources Subcommittee (RS) • Frequency Working Group (FWG) • Event Analysis Working Group (EAWG)/Event Analysis Subcommittee (EAS) • Operating Reliability Subcommittee (ORS)

  5. 2. Performance Analysis Subcommittee (PAS) Scope of Workbcommittee (PAS) Scope • Review, assess, and reports the state of reliability based on historic performance. • The key findings and recommendations will serve as technical input to: • NERC’s Reliability Standards and project prioritization, • Compliance process improvement, • Event Analysis, • Reliability Assessment, • and Critical Infrastructure Protection. • Continue Reliability Metrics Working Group activities • Define data collection and reporting guidelines including establishing consistent data definitions • Annually review, assess and report the state of reliability based on metric trends and technical analysis

  6. 2. NERC PAS & TADSWG • Performance Analysis Subcommittee (PAS) • Demand Response Availability Data System Working Group (DADSWG) • Generating Availability Data System Working Group (GADSWG) • Transmission Availability Data System Working Group (TADSWG)

  7. 3. System Risk Indicators

  8. 3. Various Sources of Information at NERC

  9. 3. Risk Control Cycle Intelligenceand Analysis

  10. 3. Severity Risk Index

  11. 3. Refined SRI equation

  12. 4. 2012 State of Reliability • The 2012 State of Reliability report marks a vital step towards an overall view of the risk to bulk power system reliability. The goal is to quantify performance, highlight areas for improvement as well as reinforce and measure success in controlling these risks. To address this objective, a number of activities are ongoing: • In 2011, the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) both provided technical support to identify and monitor areas for improving the value of indices such as the severity risk index (SRI). Based on their recommendations,, the PAS will consider applying risk cluster and other statistical analysis applications to link the reliability data used in the event-driven index (EDI), standards-driven index (SDI) and condition-driven index (CDI) to identify significant initiating events and measure their reliability impact. The resulting model could be used to characterize and monitor the state of bulk power system reliability, and cause-effect relationships may emerge.

  13. 4. NERC Annual Daily Severity Risk Index (SRI)

  14. 4. Event Category by Month (year 2011)

  15. 4. NERC Transmission System Unavailability by Outage Type

  16. 4. TO Reported Outages per TADS Event (2008-2011)

  17. 4. Survey Summary – Three Outages or More per TADS Event

  18. 4. NERC 2008-2011 AC Circuit Top Ten Sustained Automatic Outage Occurrences by Initiating Code

  19. 4. NERC Cumulative SRI Performance History (2008-2011)

  20. 4. EI & WI SRI Performance History (2008-2011) Western Interconnection Eastern Interconnection

  21. 4. Reliability Indicator Trends • ALR1-5 System Voltage Performance • ALR1-12 Interconnection Frequency Response • ALR1-4 BPS Transmission Related Events Resulting in Loss of Load • ALR2-4 Average Percent Non-Recovery of Disturbance Control Standards • ALR3-5 Interconnection Reliability Operating Limit/ System Operating Limit (IROL/SOL) Exceedances • ALR2-3 Activation of Under Frequency Load Shedding • ALR4-1 Automatic AC Transmission Outages Caused by Protection System Equipment-Related Misoperations • ALR1-3 Planning Reserve Margin • ALR6-1 Transmission Constraint Mitigation • ALR6-2 Energy Emergency Alert 3 (EEA3) • ALR6-3 Energy Emergency Alert 2 (EEA2)

  22. 4. TADS Reliability Metrics • ALR 6-11: Automatic AC transmission outages initiated by failed protection system equipment • ALR 6-12: Automatic AC transmission outages initiated by human error • ALR 6-13: Automatic AC transmission outages initiated by failed AC substation equipment, and • ALR 6-14: Automatic AC Transmission Outages initiated by failed AC circuit equipment. • ALR6-16: Transmission System Unavailability

  23. 4. ALR6-11 Automatic Outages Initiated by Failed Protection System Equipment by Regional Entity (Includes NERC-Wide)

  24. 4. NERC Single Mode AC Circuit Outages -Unpaired Poisson Analysis for ALR6-11

  25. 4. ALR6-12 – Automatic Outages Initiated by Human Error

  26. 4. ALR6-13 – Automatic Outages Initiated by Failed AC Substation Equipment

  27. 4. ALR6-14 Automatic AC Transmission Outages Initiated by Failed AC Circuit Equipment

  28. 4. ALR 6-15 – Element Availability Percentage (APC)

  29. 4. ALR 6-16 – Transmission System Unavailability

  30. 4. ALR6-16 Transmission System Unavailability by Outage Type (2010- 2011)

  31. 4. Monthly AC Circuit Automatic Outage Count (2008-2011)

  32. 4. 2008-2011 Outage Initiation Location for AC Circuits Momentary Automatic Outages by Initiation Code Sustained Automatic Outages by Initiation Code

  33. 4. 2008-2011 AC Circuit Outage Modes Sustained Automatic Outage Modes Momentary Automatic Outages Modes

  34. 5. Items For Discussion • Can be presented NERC approach used for evaluating Reliability of WECC Interconnection? • How to Measure the Statistical Significance of Change in Reliability? • Pair Normal • Unpaired Poisson • Quality Charts (MINITAB) • Do we want to investigate further events resulted in 3 or more elements out of service?

  35. Questions

  36. A. The system achieves an ALR when it possesses the following: • Controlled to stay within acceptable limits during normal conditions; • Perform acceptably after credible contingencies; • Limit the impact and scope of instability and cascading outages when they occur; • Facilities are protected from unacceptable damage by operating them within facility ratings; • Integrity can be restored promptly if it is lost; and • Have the ability to supply the aggregate electric power and energy requirements of the electricity consumers at all times, taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected unscheduled outages of system components.

  37. B. Sandia Corporation Findings • Performed Review of the NERC Approach for Measuring, Managing, and Mitigating Risk by Sandia Corporation • Reliability assessment requires three essential elements: • A consistent statement of the system being evaluated • A consistent characterization of the system operating environment • A metric that is consistent with entire system and the operating environment • Generally it is advised that the industry create methods to distinguish between “element outage events” and “loss of load events”. Currently data collected do not consider these distinctions • Since the uncertainty or probabilistic performance of the system is not considered in SRI the metrics provided in Equations are not truly risk or reliability performance metrics. • Baseline Risk Index for Initiating Events (BRIIE) used in Nuclear Industry might better suits Industry needs

  38. C. Method 1: Paired Normal Method CircuitOutages in 2008Outages in 2009 Change 1 3 4 1 2 0 0 0 3 5 8 3 4 3 2 -1 5 8 8 0 6 1 0 -1 7 5 4 -1 8 3 5 2 9 2 2 0 10 4 5 1 Assumed to have a Normal distribution Question: Is the mean of this Normal distribution 0? By focusing on the change between 2 years concerns about dependence between years is eliminated. Circuits are “paired” from year to year.

  39. C. Method 1: Paired Normal Method Statistical Assumptions • The change in number of outages for each circuit is independent • The change in number of outages for each circuit is described by a normal distribution • The means and the standard deviations of the normal distributions are identical for every circuit. Implementation Assumption • Circuits having an outage in either time period operated in both time periods. (This assumption is included to address the lack of a circuit inventory.) This method should not be applied if the assumptions are not reasonable.

  40. C. Method 2: Unpaired Poisson Method Example: CircuitOutages in 2008Outages in 2009 1 3 4 2 0 0 3 5 8 4 3 2 5 8 8 6 1 0 7 5 4 8 3 5 9 2 2 10 4 5 All Circuits 34 38 Outages for circuits in each year assumed to have Poisson distributions But distributions could be different between 2 years Question: Is the expected number of outages in each year the same

  41. C. Method 2: Unpaired Poisson Method Assumptions • The outages for each circuit in year 1 are independent and can be described by a Poisson distribution. • The outages for each circuit in year 2 are independent and can be described by a Poisson distribution. • The number of outages in year 1 and year 2 are independent. This method should not be applied if the assumptions are not reasonable.

  42. D. A List of Approved Reliability Indicators by NERC • ALR1-3 Planning Reserve Margin • ALR1-4 BPS Transmission Related Events Resulting in Loss of Load • ALR1-5 System Voltage Performance • ALR1-12 Interconnection Frequency Response • ALR2-3 Activation of Under Frequency Load Shedding • ALR2-4 Average Percent Non Recovery of Disturbance Control Standard (DCS) Events • ALR2-5 DCS Greater MSSC • ALR3-5 IROL/SOL Exceedance • ALR4-1 Automatic AC Transmission Outages Caused by Protection System Equipment-Related Misoperations • ALR6-1 Transmission Constraint Mitigation • ALR6-2 Energy Emergency Alert 3 (EEA3) • ALR6-3 Energy Emergency Alert 2 (EEA2) • ALR6-11 Automatic AC Transmission Outages Initiated by Failed Protection System Equipment • ALR6-12 Automatic AC Transmission Outages Initiated by Human Error • ALR6-13 Automatic AC Transmission Outages Initiated by Failed AC Substation Equipment • ALR6-14 Automatic AC Transmission Outages Initiated by Failed AC Circuit Equipment • ALR6-15 Element Availability Percentage (APC) • ALR6-16 Transmission System Unavailability

  43. E. Key References • http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/definition-of-ALR-approved-at-Dec-07-OC-PC-mtgs.pdf • http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/rmwg/pas/Mar_2012_OCPC/EDI_Whitepaper.pdf • http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/rmwg/Integrated_Bulk_Power_System_Risk_Assessment_Concepts_Final.pdf • http://www.nerc.com/files/ERO_Event_Analysis_Process_Document_Version_1_Feb_2012.pdf • http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/rmwg/pas/index_team/SRI_Equation_Refinement_May6_2011.pdf • http://www.nerc.com/files/ERO_Event_Analysis_Process_Document_Version_1_Feb_2012.pdf • http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/rmwg/pas/Mar_2012_OCPC/Final_Memo_Sandia.pdf • http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/tadswg/07_agenda%20item%20EIA%20Memo.pdf

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