Changes in surface climate of the tropical Pacific. Based on……. . Outline and key messages. Main features of region’s climate system We are affecting the climate system - climate is already changing Future will be warmer Extreme weather likely to be more extreme
Our climate will be changing for foreseeable future
Wetter (green) or drier (orange)
Annual rainfall - Apia
Warmer (red) or cooler (blue)
Global annual mean energy budget W m-2
Trenberth et al 2009
Why are climate scientists so sure climate is changing due to human activities?
The climate system appears to be changing faster than earlier thought likely
Measured increase in carbon dioxide to human activities?
18th century = 280ppm
air bubbles in ice cores
Observed warming of global temperatures to human activities?
Projecting future climates to human activities?
Spatial variation in warming to human activities?
Spatial variation in rainfall to human activities?
Extremes to human activities?
The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question
All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be
Preparing for TC Jasmine Vanuatu
Important points to note to human activities?
Summary to human activities?