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Jerrold Oppenheim DRAFT New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable 110 Boston April 3, 2009 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Pursuing Sustainable Energy in New England: the Promise of Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective. Jerrold Oppenheim DRAFT New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable 110 Boston April 3, 2009. “America sees 18% of Wealth Vanish”.

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Jerrold oppenheim draft new england electricity restructuring roundtable 110 boston april 3 2009

Pursuing Sustainable Energy in New England: the Promise of Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

Jerrold Oppenheim

DRAFT

New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable 110

Boston

April 3, 2009


America sees 18 of wealth vanish

“America sees 18% of Wealth Vanish”

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Only top 20 had significant income increases

Only top 20% had significant income increases

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


New england

New England

CBPP

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Unemployment 8 1 10 in ca mi nv nc or ri sc

Unemployment 8.1%>10% in CA, MI, NV, NC, OR, RI, SC

January 2009 (US: 7.6%)

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Liheap

LIHEAP

DHCD

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Regional differences

Regional differences

http://www.creditslips.org/photos/uncategorized/2008/04/15/bankruptcyfilingratemapapr2008small.jpg

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Jerrold oppenheim draft new england electricity restructuring roundtable 110 boston april 3 2009

.

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Other headline impacts of the great recession

Other Headline Impacts of The Great Recession

  • Millionaire Population Falls

    The numbers are in: Millionaires are getting clobbered by the financial crisis. … the latest survey from Spectrem Group showed that the number of U.S. millionaires fell 27% last year. wsj.com/marketbeat March 14, 2009

  • Citigroup Climbs to $1.78 / Bank's Stock Solidly Over $1 Apiece After Nearly Closing Under It Recently wsj.com/Large Stock Focus March 14, 2009

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Rate increases

RATE INCREASES

  • T&D

  • Generation

  • Natural Gas commodity

  • Financing

  • Carbon management

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Transmission and distribution

Investment Including Smart Grid (2010-2030)

$581.5

600

400

$297.8

Billions of Dollars (Nominal)

$184.4

200

$113.4

0

Transmission

Distribution

? 230 kV

< 230 kV

Transmission and Distribution

Source: Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge, The Brattle Group, November 2008

EEI


Value of reliability

Value of reliability

Estimated Cost-per-Outage-per-Customer (U.S.)1

Duration Residential Commercial Industrial

0 sec $2.18 $605 $1,893

1 hour $2.70 $886 $3,253

Sustained Interruption

$2.99 $1,067 $4,227

1 Costs shown in U.S. 2002 CPI-weighted dollars

Source: Kristina HamachiLaCommare and Joseph H. Eto ,Understanding the Cost of Power Interruptions to U.S.

Electricity Consumers (LBL, 2004), Table 10, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMP/EMP-pubs.html

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Generation

Generation

Frank Graves, The Brattle Group, at The Santa Fe Conference 2009

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Natural gas futures

Natural Gas Futures

Synapse Energy Economics

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Eia gas forecasts

EIA Gas Forecasts

Synapse

Energy

Economics

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Financing costs eei

Financing costs (EEI)

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Impact is not uniform

Impact is not uniform

DOE

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Carbon

Carbon

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Range of potential impacts from climate legislation eei

Range of Potential Impacts From Climate Legislation (EEI)

  • Cost per household $446 - $2927 in 2020 / year

  • Electricity prices 21% - 35% in 2020

  • Natural gas prices 20% - 39% in 2020

  • GDP 0.7% - 1.74% (~ $336B out of $~19.2T GDP)

  • Employment 1.1 - 2.78 million in 2020

  • Coal consumption 42% - 66% in 2020

  • Permit prices ($ / ton CO2 equivalent) $18 - $48 / ton in 2020

  • Total US GHG emission (mmtCO2-equivalent) 4887 – 6654 in 2030 (“Business As Usual” 9672 in 2030)


Jerrold oppenheim draft new england electricity restructuring roundtable 110 boston april 3 2009

CO2

World

Resources

Institute

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Jerrold oppenheim draft new england electricity restructuring roundtable 110 boston april 3 2009

CO2

D. Burtraw et al., RFF, Sep. 2008

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


New england1

New England

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Cap and trade rebates

Cap and Trade rebates?

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Consumers

Consumers

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Energy burden

ENERGY BURDEN

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Controlling low income bills

CONTROLLING LOW-INCOME BILLS

  • Stimulus

  • Efficiency

  • Demand management?

  • LIHEAP

  • Arrearage management

  • Low-income rates

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Stimulus

Stimulus

  • Energy efficiency / Renewables

    • Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Programs - $16.8 Billion

    • Renewable energy project / transmission loan guarantees - $6 Billion

    • Federal building efficiency - $4.5 Billion

    • Weatherization - $5 Billion

    • State block grants for energy projects - $6.3 Billion

  • Transmission

    • Federal loans for transmission (WAPA and BPA) - $6.5 Billion

    • Electric transmission loan guarantees - $2 Billion

  • Smart Grid - $4.5 Billion Smart Appliances - $300 Million

  • PHEV

    • Fuel efficient vehicles - $300 Million States, $300 Million Fed

    • PHEV charging infrastructure - $400 Million

    • Advanced battery manufacturing - $2 Billion

  • Carbon Capture and Storage - $3.4 Billion

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Efficiency

Efficiency

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Jerrold oppenheim draft new england electricity restructuring roundtable 110 boston april 3 2009

WAP

WAPTAC

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


New england2

New England

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Massachusetts

Massachusetts

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Demand management

Demand management

www.gridpoint.com/curve/overview/

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Liheap1

LIHEAP

LIHEAP

Clearinghouse

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Renewables

Renewables

Cocoa bean shells

(PSNH-Lindt experiment

At Schiller Station,

Portsmouth)

www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com


Jerrold oppenheim draft new england electricity restructuring roundtable 110 boston april 3 2009

.

www.

DemocracyAndRegulation.com

+1-978-283-0897

JerroldOpp@

DemocracyAndRegulation.com

Theo MacGregor & Jerrold Oppenheim

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35


About the speaker

About theSpeaker

Jerrold Oppenheim is an independent consultant and attorney who has advised and represented low-income and other utility consumer advocates, government agencies, labor, and utilities across the country for more than 35 years. A graduate of Harvard College and Boston College Law School, he led utility litigation and argued precedent-setting cases for four Attorneys General in New York State and Massachusetts; for Legal Services in Boston, Chicago and New York City; and for the National Consumer Law Center. He is a member of the Center for Public Utilities Advisory Council, New Mexico State University, andhas spoken and published on four continents, including Democracy And Regulation with Theo MacGregor and Greg Palast, published by Pluto Press (London) and winner of the ACLU Upton Sinclair Award.

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