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Pursuing Sustainable Energy in New England: the Promise of Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective. Jerrold Oppenheim DRAFT New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable 110 Boston April 3, 2009. “America sees 18% of Wealth Vanish”.

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Pursuing Sustainable Energy in New England: the Promise of Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

Jerrold Oppenheim

DRAFT

New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable 110

Boston

April 3, 2009


America sees 18 of wealth vanish
“America sees 18% of Wealth Vanish” Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Only top 20 had significant income increases
Only top 20% had significant income increases Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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New england
New England Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

CBPP

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Unemployment 8 1 10 in ca mi nv nc or ri sc
Unemployment 8.1% Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective>10% in CA, MI, NV, NC, OR, RI, SC

January 2009 (US: 7.6%)

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Liheap
LIHEAP Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

DHCD

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Regional differences
Regional differences Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

http://www.creditslips.org/photos/uncategorized/2008/04/15/bankruptcyfilingratemapapr2008small.jpg

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. Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Other headline impacts of the great recession
Other Headline Impacts of The Great Recession Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

  • Millionaire Population Falls

    The numbers are in: Millionaires are getting clobbered by the financial crisis. … the latest survey from Spectrem Group showed that the number of U.S. millionaires fell 27% last year. wsj.com/marketbeat March 14, 2009

  • Citigroup Climbs to $1.78 / Bank's Stock Solidly Over $1 Apiece After Nearly Closing Under It Recently wsj.com/Large Stock Focus March 14, 2009

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Rate increases
RATE INCREASES Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

  • T&D

  • Generation

  • Natural Gas commodity

  • Financing

  • Carbon management

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Transmission and distribution

Investment Including Smart Grid (2010-2030) Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

$581.5

600

400

$297.8

Billions of Dollars (Nominal)

$184.4

200

$113.4

0

Transmission

Distribution

? 230 kV

< 230 kV

Transmission and Distribution

Source: Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge, The Brattle Group, November 2008

EEI


Value of reliability
Value of reliability Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

Estimated Cost-per-Outage-per-Customer (U.S.)1

Duration Residential Commercial Industrial

0 sec $2.18 $605 $1,893

1 hour $2.70 $886 $3,253

Sustained Interruption

$2.99 $1,067 $4,227

1 Costs shown in U.S. 2002 CPI-weighted dollars

Source: Kristina HamachiLaCommare and Joseph H. Eto ,Understanding the Cost of Power Interruptions to U.S.

Electricity Consumers (LBL, 2004), Table 10, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMP/EMP-pubs.html

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Generation
Generation Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

Frank Graves, The Brattle Group, at The Santa Fe Conference 2009

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Natural gas futures
Natural Gas Futures Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

Synapse Energy Economics

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Eia gas forecasts
EIA Gas Forecasts Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

Synapse

Energy

Economics

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Financing costs eei
Financing costs (EEI) Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Impact is not uniform
Impact is not uniform Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

DOE

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Carbon
Carbon Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Range of potential impacts from climate legislation eei
Range of Potential Impacts Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income PerspectiveFrom Climate Legislation (EEI)

  • Cost per household $446 - $2927 in 2020 / year

  • Electricity prices 21% - 35% in 2020

  • Natural gas prices 20% - 39% in 2020

  • GDP 0.7% - 1.74% (~ $336B out of $~19.2T GDP)

  • Employment 1.1 - 2.78 million in 2020

  • Coal consumption 42% - 66% in 2020

  • Permit prices ($ / ton CO2 equivalent) $18 - $48 / ton in 2020

  • Total US GHG emission (mmtCO2-equivalent) 4887 – 6654 in 2030 (“Business As Usual” 9672 in 2030)


CO Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective2

World

Resources

Institute

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CO Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective2

D. Burtraw et al., RFF, Sep. 2008

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New england1
New England Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Cap and trade rebates
Cap and Trade rebates? Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Consumers
Consumers Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Energy burden
ENERGY BURDEN Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Controlling low income bills
CONTROLLING LOW-INCOME BILLS Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

  • Stimulus

  • Efficiency

  • Demand management?

  • LIHEAP

  • Arrearage management

  • Low-income rates

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Stimulus
Stimulus Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

  • Energy efficiency / Renewables

    • Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Programs - $16.8 Billion

    • Renewable energy project / transmission loan guarantees - $6 Billion

    • Federal building efficiency - $4.5 Billion

    • Weatherization - $5 Billion

    • State block grants for energy projects - $6.3 Billion

  • Transmission

    • Federal loans for transmission (WAPA and BPA) - $6.5 Billion

    • Electric transmission loan guarantees - $2 Billion

  • Smart Grid - $4.5 Billion Smart Appliances - $300 Million

  • PHEV

    • Fuel efficient vehicles - $300 Million States, $300 Million Fed

    • PHEV charging infrastructure - $400 Million

    • Advanced battery manufacturing - $2 Billion

  • Carbon Capture and Storage - $3.4 Billion

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Efficiency
Efficiency Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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WAP Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

WAPTAC

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New england2
New England Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Massachusetts
Massachusetts Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

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Demand management
Demand management Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

www.gridpoint.com/curve/overview/

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Liheap1
LIHEAP Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

LIHEAP

Clearinghouse

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Renewables
Renewables Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

Cocoa bean shells

(PSNH-Lindt experiment

At Schiller Station,

Portsmouth)

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. Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective

www.

DemocracyAndRegulation.com

+1-978-283-0897

[email protected]

DemocracyAndRegulation.com

Theo MacGregor & Jerrold Oppenheim

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35


About the speaker
About the Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income PerspectiveSpeaker

Jerrold Oppenheim is an independent consultant and attorney who has advised and represented low-income and other utility consumer advocates, government agencies, labor, and utilities across the country for more than 35 years. A graduate of Harvard College and Boston College Law School, he led utility litigation and argued precedent-setting cases for four Attorneys General in New York State and Massachusetts; for Legal Services in Boston, Chicago and New York City; and for the National Consumer Law Center. He is a member of the Center for Public Utilities Advisory Council, New Mexico State University, andhas spoken and published on four continents, including Democracy And Regulation with Theo MacGregor and Greg Palast, published by Pluto Press (London) and winner of the ACLU Upton Sinclair Award.

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