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Simulating impacts of future climate on rice and human in CNX, KKC Thailand. Attachai Jintrawet Multiple Cropping Center, Chiang Mai Univ., Chiang Mai. & Kim C. Nguyen, Atmospheric Res. Center, CSIRO.

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Simulating impacts of future climate on rice and human in cnx kkc thailand
Simulating impacts of future climate on rice and human in CNX, KKC Thailand

Attachai Jintrawet

Multiple Cropping Center, Chiang Mai Univ., Chiang Mai.

&

Kim C. Nguyen,

Atmospheric Res. Center, CSIRO.

@ Sasin Graduate School of Management, Chulalongkorn University, Sasapatasala Building, room 521.


Issues
Issues CNX, KKC Thailand

Rice production systems and climate changes

Study methods

Results

Summary


Global carbon cycle and stocks
Global carbon cycle and stocks CNX, KKC Thailand

Thailand carries 1 million ha of riceland


Rice yield kg ha 1 and population
Rice yield (kg ha CNX, KKC Thailand-1) and population

5,000

CNX = 1.6 Millions

2,500

Thailand: 65 Millions

KK = 1.8 Millions

0

1974 84 94 00

OAE, 1975-2001


Study tools
Study tools CNX, KKC Thailand

GFDL-MK3 climate model

Predicted Regional GCM scenario weather data

KK, CM

1985-1999

2006-2025

Historical weather data

KK, CM

1985-99

VS

+

NSPT glutinous rice

RD23 non-glutinous rice

KK using Roi Et soil

CM using San Sai soil

CERES-Rice


Scenario 1 1985 1999
Scenario 1: 1985-1999 CNX, KKC Thailand

Irrigation

Rainfed

Irrigated

RD23

RD23

Rice variety

NSPT

NSPT

Weather data

WTH

MK3

MK3

WTH

MK3

WTH

MK3

WTH

Urea

WTH

Green manure

Scenario 1 = 1xCO2 b/w 1985-1999 Using WTH & MK3

1985

1999

2045

2035

2055

2064

2006

2025

Scenario 2 = 2xCO2 b/w 2006-2025 UsingMK3


Scenario 2 2006 2025
Scenario 2: 2006-2025 CNX, KKC Thailand

Irrigation

Rainfed

Irrigated

Rice variety

RD23

RD23

NSPT

NSPT

Weather data

MK3

MK3

MK3

MK3

Urea

0, 37.5, 75 kg ha-1

0.5, 2, 4 Mg ha-1

Total of 12 management rice production strategies

1985

1999

2045

2035

2055

2064

2006

2025

Scenario 2 = 2xCO2 b/w2006-2025 usingMK3


Scenario 1 between 1985 1999
Scenario 1 between 1985-1999 CNX, KKC Thailand

Rice yield (Mg ha-1)

Provinces

Water

Rice variety

MK3

OAE

WTH

NSPT

KKC

Rainfed

2.20

0.89

1.67

RD 23

.

2.63

1.00

1.67

NSPT

Irrigated

2.58

2.48

1.67

RD 23

3.08

3.26

1.67

RMSE

1.00

1.03

CNX

NSPT

Rainfed

3.54

2.64

3.33

RD 23

4.20

2.98

3.33

NSPT

4.03

3.98

3.33

Irrigated

4.77

5.16

3.33

RD 23

RMSE

0.91

1.04


Rainfall between 1980 2030
Rainfall between 1980-2030 CNX, KKC Thailand

2

,

500

CNX

2

,

000

1

,

500

1

,

000

KKC

500

0

๒๕๒๓

1980

๒๕๓๓

1990

๒๕๔๓

2000

๒๕๕๓

2010

๒๕๖๓

2020

๒๕๗๓

2030


Scenario 2 b w 2006 2024
Scenario 2 b/w 2006-2024 CNX, KKC Thailand

Rice yield at KKC (Mg ha-1)

Irrigated

Rainfed

Urea (kg ha-1)

Urea (kg ha-1)

Rice var

GM (kg ha-1)

0

37.5

75

0

37.5

75

NSPT

0.78

1.50

1.99

1.71

2.69

3.04

6000

500

0.74

1.48

1.97

1.54

2.53

2.89

RD23

0.90

1.76

2.35

2.27

3.58

4.01

6000

500

0.84

1.73

2.33

1.96

3.31

3.76


Scenario 2 b w 2006 20241
Scenario 2 b/w 2006-2024 CNX, KKC Thailand

Rice yield at CNX (Mg ha-1)

Irrigated

Rainfed

Urea (kg ha-1)

Urea (kg ha-1)

Rice var

GM (kg ha-1)

0

37.5

75

0

37.5

75

NSPT

5.60

5.73

5.94

7.74

7.86

8.04

6000

500

2.70

3.43

4.07

3.83

4.37

4.87

RD23

6.56

6.67

6.89

9.88

10.00

10.21

6000

500

3.20

4.24

5.09

1.96

5.78

6.43


Impacts of the changes
Impacts of the changes CNX, KKC Thailand

  • At CNX, simulated rice yields appeared to be higher than the current level.

  • At KKC, simulated rice yields appeared to be lower than the current level.

  • Flooding and soil erosion


Impacts of high rainfall
Impacts of high rainfall CNX, KKC Thailand

  • Too much moisture in harvested products, use more energy to dry

  • More leaching

  • Less efficiency of chemical fertilizer


Summary
Summary CNX, KKC Thailand

  • It is possible to use a process-oriented rice model to simulate the production under various climatic, edaphic, and management conditions

  • Slight impact on rice production during the next 20 years, except much higher rainfall volume in CNX areas.

  • Need to develop warning systems.


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