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Budget Outlook

Budget Outlook. Glen Crawford P5 Meeting Sep 24 2007. DOE FY2008 Budget + Outyears. FY2008 brief review Outyears Inputs for P5 Revised DOE out-year budget scenarios Revised facility ops out-year projections Revised new project profiles (actual+ my guesses). FY2008: Status.

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Budget Outlook

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  1. BudgetOutlook Glen Crawford P5 Meeting Sep 24 2007

  2. DOE FY2008 Budget + Outyears • FY2008 brief review • Outyears • Inputs for P5 • Revised DOE out-year budget scenarios • Revised facility ops out-year projections • Revised new project profiles (actual+ my guesses) HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  3. FY2008: Status • HEP FY 2008 Request is 4% above FY 2007 Appropriation ($782M vs $751M) • House mark at President’s Request • Senate mark at President’s Request +7M • Both have interesting language on JDEM • Expect Continuing Resolution…for how long? • Out-year projections ambiguous(more on this later) HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  4. HEP Long-term Trend HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  5. HEP program in FY 2008 • Overall HEP priorities in FY 2008: • Tevatron and B-factory supported to run • Last year of B-factory Ops • LHCsupport (Ops and Computing) up 9% as data taking begins • Core research program at the universities (+3%) and laboratories (+2%) maintained • New initiatives for the future of HEP (see next slide) HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  6. Initiatives in FY08 • Initiatives for the future of HEP: • ILC R&D ($42M  $60M) • SCRF infrastructure development continues • More new neutrino experiments • Main Injector Neutrino Exp’t v-A(MINERvA) • Tokai-to-Kamioka near detector (T2K) • Stage III Dark Energy experiment (DES) • Investment in long-term accelerator R&D increased +$5M HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  7. HEP Trends FY2008 • Growth continues in R&D and new initiatives • Addresses highest priority future facility (ILC) as well as long-term R&D (accelerator science) • Also targeted at high-impact physics areas in the nearer term that have relatively well-defined “roadmaps”: • Neutrinos • Dark Energy • The challenge is that HEP budgets only growing at approximately cost-of-living…hard to grow new efforts HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  8. Revised Input for P5 • Advice inconsistent with likely budget scenarios does not help • But boundary conditions have changed, particularly ILC • We would also like to know priorities independent of budget • Out-year overall budget envelope has changed since last time • Was: Growing at few to several % per year • Now: ?? • Facilities Operations envelopes : • Now have better idea of B-factory ramp-down trajectory (at least 1st phase). • FY2010 Tevatron running? • Project profiles • Revised profiles: actual plans for actual projects; my guesses for others. Did not iterate with NSF. • New proposals beginning to surface HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  9. Suggested out-year scenarios • “Alternative” assumes 7% annual increase (a la ACI), see following slide HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  10. Outyear HEP Profile • DOE HEP FY2007 out-year profile is a component of an Office of Science proposal developed with FY2007 Pres. Req. and sent to Congress March 2006 • Grows 1-3% (9-10%) per yr in 2008-9 (2010-11) • Actual bottoms-up integration of projects • FY2008 “profile” is nominal 7% per yr pro rata • Compromise forced by lack of agreement between OMB and Congress on outyear planning • Mechanical increase of each SC program by fixed rate • Because it is based on FY08 Req., integral funding is less than in comparable FY07 exercise. HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  11. Facilities Ramp-down Profiles • These are ourrough estimates • We concur with FNAL estimates of ~$25M (M&S only) incremental to run Collider for one year. • Assume: • LCLS covers most of SLAC linac ops (2008+). HEP Ops staff at SLAC transition to other activities. • FNAL operations for NuMI will continue thru NOvA (2018?) HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  12. Project Profiles : Caveats • All numbers are rounded, “planning level”, per experiment (may want >1) • Start and end dates flexible; does not include operations • Unless otherwise noted these are NOT actual project profiles • All $ in Millions and could include contributions from both US funding agencies HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  13. Nominal Project Profiles I • “Small” projects (Total Project Cost [TPC] <$50M) HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  14. Nominal Project Profiles II • “Medium” projects ($400M>TPC>$50M): HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  15. Nominal Project Profiles III • Large new facilities ($1B > TPC > $400M) HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  16. Nominal Project Profiles IV • Ultra-scale new facilities (TPC > $1B) HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  17. What’s Not Included • “Super” NuMI Upgrade (0.71.2MW) • Needs revised profile from lab. TPC $50-100M? • LHC Accelerator Upgrade • Needs definition of what it is (CERN) • Needs definition of US scope • Project X • No cost estimate yet HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

  18. Summary • Budget outlook (FY08+) is uncertain • May clear up in 6 months…or not • So are boundary conditions • ILC is the elephant in the room • Does that change priorities? • Particularly, if ILC is delayed or stretched out • P5 advice will be most useful in • Determining optimal balance of existing research program vs. future opportunities • What are the budget implications of different physics scenarios? HEP Budget FY08 Update for P5

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