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Power Players: Presidential Election and Beyond

Power Players: Presidential Election and Beyond. VENEZUELA 2012. The “Horserace” Conflicting Views. Consultores 21 Chavez 46.2% Capriles 48.2 (September) 6 th Poder Datos Chavez 47.17% Capriles 43.25% (September). DATANALISIS Chavez 43,8% Capriles 29.1% (September)

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Power Players: Presidential Election and Beyond

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  1. Power Players: Presidential Election and Beyond VENEZUELA 2012

  2. The “Horserace” Conflicting Views Consultores 21 Chavez 46.2% Capriles 48.2 (September) 6th Poder Datos Chavez 47.17% Capriles 43.25% (September) DATANALISIS Chavez 43,8% Capriles 29.1% (September) CONSULTORES 30.11 Chavez 56.5% Capriles 34.4 % (September) 16 September

  3. Hugo Chávez Frías • Health – uncertain • Campaigning • more reliance on media than in past • significant number of public appearances • Appeal • charismatic • manichaen • Acaraigua, Portuguesa • (24 September)

  4. Henrique CaprilesRadonski • Unified opposition • last chance to prevent transition to communalism • Remnants of Punto Fijo fight for survival • Rejection of class warfare • Youth-vigor

  5. Partido Socialista Unida de Venezuela (BeyondChavez) • Adán Chávez (South Llanos Region) • Ramón Rodríguez Chacín (North Llanos Region) • Rafael Gil Barrios (South East Region) • Diosdado Cabello R. (First Vice President) • Elías Jaua (capital region) • Nicolás Maduro (Center-West Region) • Francisco Arias Cárdenas (West Region) • Tareck El Aissami (Andean Region) ] • Yelitze Santaella (East Region)

  6. Armed Forces • Operational Strategic Commands Henry de Jesús Rangel Silva (born in 1961) Venezuelan general and current minister of Defence (since January 2012).[1]

  7. Other Components of the Military Establishment • Bolivarian Militias Rule over Ranchos (Slums) • manage drugs • potential for violence if Chavez loses the election • National Guard - Juan Francisco Romero • Figueroa • --------------------------------------- • Operational CommandGen. Wilmer Barrientos • (Plan Republica)

  8. Mesa de Unidad Democratica • Fifth Republic Opposition • Primero Justicia • Un Nuevo Tiempo • Proyecto Venezuela • Patria Para Todos • Alianza Bravo Pueblo • Podemos • Political Parties of Punto Fijo (Low Profile) • Accion Democratica • COPEI • MAS

  9. Players: Lesser but Important • Government Institutions • Ministerio para Comunas y Proteccion Social • (Isis Ochoa Cañizales) • Interest Groups • FEDECAMARAS • UNIONS • CATHOLIC CHURCH • Cardinal Jorge Urosa & President Chavez

  10. VENECUBA?? • 100,000 barrels of oil to Cuba • Cuban doctors to Venezuelan ranchos • Cuban political officers in Venezuelan military • Cuban planners in Venezuelan national bureaucracy

  11. International Players Iran • China • Development Bank has lent Venezuela$42.5 billion • Brazil • Political Consultants • Odebrecht infrastructure construcion Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi (right) meets Venezuelan Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicols Maduro Moros

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