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Sensor data mining and forecasting. Christos Faloutsos CMU [email protected] Outline. Problem definition - motivation Linear forecasting - AR and AWSOM Coevolving series - MUSCLES Fractal forecasting - F4 Other projects graph modeling, outliers etc. Problem definition.

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Sensor data mining and forecasting

Sensor data mining and forecasting

Christos Faloutsos

CMU

[email protected]


Outline
Outline

Problem definition - motivation

Linear forecasting - AR and AWSOM

Coevolving series - MUSCLES

Fractal forecasting - F4

Other projects

graph modeling, outliers etc

C. Faloutsos


Problem definition
Problem definition

  • Given: one or more sequences

    x1 , x2 , … , xt , …

    (y1, y2, … , yt, …

    … )

  • Find

    • forecasts; patterns

    • clusters; outliers

C. Faloutsos


Motivation applications
Motivation - Applications

  • Financial, sales, economic series

  • Medical

    • ECGs +; blood pressure etc monitoring

    • reactions to new drugs

    • elderly care

C. Faloutsos


Motivation applications cont d
Motivation - Applications (cont’d)

  • ‘Smart house’

    • sensors monitor temperature, humidity, air quality

  • video surveillance

C. Faloutsos


Motivation applications cont d1
Motivation - Applications (cont’d)

  • civil/automobile infrastructure

    • bridge vibrations [Oppenheim+02]

    • road conditions / traffic monitoring

C. Faloutsos


Stream data automobile traffic

Automobile traffic

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Stream Data: automobile traffic

# cars

time

C. Faloutsos


Motivation applications cont d2
Motivation - Applications (cont’d)

  • Weather, environment/anti-pollution

    • volcano monitoring

    • air/water pollutant monitoring

C. Faloutsos


Stream data sunspots
Stream Data: Sunspots

#sunspots per month

time

C. Faloutsos


Motivation applications cont d3
Motivation - Applications (cont’d)

  • Computer systems

    • ‘Active Disks’ (buffering, prefetching)

    • web servers (ditto)

    • network traffic monitoring

    • ...

C. Faloutsos


Stream data disk accesses
Stream Data: Disk accesses

#bytes

time

C. Faloutsos


Settings applications
Settings & Applications

  • One or more sensors, collecting time-series data

C. Faloutsos


Settings applications1
Settings & Applications

Each sensor collects data (x1, x2, …, xt, …)

C. Faloutsos


Settings applications2
Settings & Applications

Sensors ‘report’ to a central site

C. Faloutsos


Settings applications3
Settings & Applications

Problem #1:

Finding patterns

in a single time sequence

C. Faloutsos


Settings applications4
Settings & Applications

Problem #2:

Finding patterns

in many time

sequences

C. Faloutsos


Problem 1
Problem #1:

Goal: given a signal (eg., #packets over time)

Find: patterns, periodicities, and/or compress

count

lynx caught per year

(packets per day;

temperature per day)

year

C. Faloutsos


Problem 1 forecast
Problem#1’: Forecast

Given xt, xt-1, …, forecast xt+1

90

80

70

60

Number of packets sent

??

50

40

30

20

10

0

1

3

5

7

9

11

Time Tick

C. Faloutsos


Problem 2
Problem #2:

  • Given: A set of correlatedtime sequences

  • Forecast ‘Sent(t)’

C. Faloutsos


Differences from dsp stat
Differences from DSP/Stat

  • Semi-infinite streams

    • we need on-line, ‘any-time’ algorithms

  • Can not afford human intervention

    • need automatic methods

  • sensors have limited memory / processing / transmitting power

    • need for (lossy) compression

C. Faloutsos


Important observations
Important observations

Patterns, rules, compression and forecasting are closely related:

  • To do forecasting, we need

    • to find patterns/rules

  • good rules help us compress

  • to find outliers, we need to have forecasts

    • (outlier = too far away from our forecast)

C. Faloutsos



Outline1
Outline

Problem definition - motivation

Linear forecasting

AR

AWSOM

Coevolving series - MUSCLES

Fractal forecasting - F4

Other projects

graph modeling, outliers etc

C. Faloutsos


Mini intro to a r
Mini intro to A.R.

C. Faloutsos


Forecasting
Forecasting

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." - Nils Bohr

http://www.hfac.uh.edu/MediaFutures/thoughts.html

C. Faloutsos


Problem 1 forecast1
Problem#1’: Forecast

  • Example: give xt-1, xt-2, …, forecast xt

90

80

70

60

Number of packets sent

??

50

40

30

20

10

0

1

3

5

7

9

11

Time Tick

C. Faloutsos


Linear regression idea
Linear Regression: idea

85

Body height

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

15

25

35

45

Body weight

  • express what we don’t know (= ‘dependent variable’)

  • as a linear function of what we know (= ‘indep. variable(s)’)

C. Faloutsos


Linear auto regression
Linear Auto Regression:

C. Faloutsos


Problem 1 forecast2

90

80

70

??

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1

3

5

7

9

11

Time Tick

Problem#1’: Forecast

  • Solution: try to express

    xt

    as a linear function of the past: xt-2, xt-2, …,

    (up to a window of w)

    Formally:

C. Faloutsos


Linear auto regression1
Linear Auto Regression:

85

‘lag-plot’

80

75

70

65

Number of packets sent (t)

60

55

50

45

40

15

25

35

45

Number of packets sent (t-1)

  • lag w=1

  • Dependent variable = # of packets sent (S[t])

  • Independent variable = # of packets sent (S[t-1])

C. Faloutsos


More details
More details:

  • Q1: Can it work with window w>1?

  • A1: YES!

xt

xt-1

xt-2

C. Faloutsos


More details1
More details:

  • Q1: Can it work with window w>1?

  • A1: YES! (we’ll fit a hyper-plane, then!)

xt

xt-1

xt-2

C. Faloutsos


More details2
More details:

  • Q1: Can it work with window w>1?

  • A1: YES! (we’ll fit a hyper-plane, then!)

xt

xt-1

xt-2

C. Faloutsos


Even more details
Even more details

  • Q2: Can we estimate a incrementally?

  • A2: Yes, with the brilliant, classic method of ‘Recursive Least Squares’ (RLS) (see, e.g., [Chen+94], or [Yi+00], for details)

  • Q3: can we ‘down-weight’ older samples?

  • A3: yes (RLS does that easily!)

C. Faloutsos


Mini intro to a r1
Mini intro to A.R.

C. Faloutsos


How to choose w

goal: capture arbitrary periodicities

with NO human intervention

on a semi-infinite stream

How to choose ‘w’?

C. Faloutsos


Outline2
Outline

Problem definition - motivation

Linear forecasting

AR

AWSOM

Coevolving series - MUSCLES

Fractal forecasting - F4

Other projects

graph modeling, outliers etc

C. Faloutsos


Problem
Problem:

  • in a train of spikes (128 ticks apart)

  • any AR with window w < 128 will fail

    What to do, then?

C. Faloutsos


Answer intuition
Answer (intuition)

  • Do a Wavelet transform (~ short window DFT)

  • look for patterns in every frequency

C. Faloutsos


Intuition
Intuition

  • Why NOT use the short window Fourier transform (SWFT)?

  • A: how short should be the window?

freq

time

w’

C. Faloutsos


Wavelets

main idea: variable-length window!

wavelets

f

t

C. Faloutsos


Advantages of wavelets
Advantages of Wavelets

  • Better compression (better RMSE with same number of coefficients - used in JPEG-2000)

  • fast to compute (usually: O(n)!)

  • very good for ‘spikes’

  • mammalian eye and ear: Gabor wavelets

C. Faloutsos


Wavelets intuition

f

value

t

time

Wavelets - intuition:

  • Q: baritone/silence/ soprano - DWT?

C. Faloutsos


Wavelets intuition1

f

value

t

time

Wavelets - intuition:

  • Q: baritone/soprano - DWT?

C. Faloutsos


Awsom

W1,3

t

W1,1

W1,4

W1,2

t

t

t

t

frequency

W2,1

W2,2

=

t

t

W3,1

t

V4,1

t

time

AWSOM

xt

C. Faloutsos


Awsom1

W1,3

t

W1,1

W1,4

W1,2

t

t

t

t

frequency

W2,1

W2,2

t

t

W3,1

t

V4,1

t

time

AWSOM

xt

C. Faloutsos


Awsom idea

Wl,t-2

Wl,t-1

Wl,t

Wl’,t’-2

Wl’,t’-1

AWSOM - idea

Wl,t l,1Wl,t-1l,2Wl,t-2 …

Wl’,t’ l’,1Wl’,t’-1l’,2Wl’,t’-2 …

Wl’,t’

C. Faloutsos


More details3
More details…

  • Update of wavelet coefficients

  • Update of linear models

  • Feature selection

    • Not all correlations are significant

    • Throw away the insignificant ones (“noise”)

(incremental)

(incremental; RLS)

(single-pass)

C. Faloutsos


Results synthetic data
Results - Synthetic data

AWSOM

AR

Seasonal AR

  • Triangle pulse

  • Mix (sine + square)

  • AR captures wrong trend (or none)

  • Seasonal AR estimation fails

C. Faloutsos


Results real data
Results - Real data

  • Automobile traffic

    • Daily periodicity

    • Bursty “noise” at smaller scales

  • AR fails to capture any trend

  • Seasonal AR estimation fails

C. Faloutsos


Results real data1
Results - real data

  • Sunspot intensity

    • Slightly time-varying “period”

  • AR captures wrong trend

  • Seasonal ARIMA

    • wrong downward trend, despite help by human!

C. Faloutsos


Complexity
Complexity

  • Model update

    Space:OlgN + mk2  OlgN

    Time:Ok2  O1

  • Where

    • N: number of points (so far)

    • k: number of regression coefficients; fixed

    • m: number of linear models; OlgN

C. Faloutsos


Conclusions
Conclusions

  • AWSOM: Automatic, ‘hands-off’ traffic modeling (first of its kind!)

C. Faloutsos


Outline3
Outline

Problem definition - motivation

Linear forecasting

AR

AWSOM

Coevolving series - MUSCLES

Fractal forecasting - F4

Other projects

graph modeling, outliers etc

C. Faloutsos


Co evolving time sequences
Co-Evolving Time Sequences

  • Given: A set of correlatedtime sequences

  • Forecast ‘Repeated(t)’

??

C. Faloutsos


Solution
Solution:

Q: what should we do?

C. Faloutsos


Solution1
Solution:

Least Squares, with

  • Dep. Variable: Repeated(t)

  • Indep. Variables: Sent(t-1) … Sent(t-w); Lost(t-1) …Lost(t-w); Repeated(t-1), ...

  • (named: ‘MUSCLES’ [Yi+00])

C. Faloutsos


Examples experiments
Examples - Experiments

  • Datasets

    • Modem pool traffic (14 modems, 1500 time-ticks; #packets per time unit)

    • AT&T WorldNet internet usage (several data streams; 980 time-ticks)

  • Measures of success

    • Accuracy : Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

C. Faloutsos


Accuracy modem
Accuracy - “Modem”

MUSCLES outperforms AR & “yesterday”

C. Faloutsos


Accuracy internet
Accuracy - “Internet”

  • MUSCLES consistently outperforms AR & “yesterday”

C. Faloutsos


Outline4
Outline

Problem definition - motivation

Linear forecasting

AR

AWSOM

Coevolving series - MUSCLES

Fractal forecasting - F4

Other projects

graph modeling, outliers etc

C. Faloutsos


Detailed outline
Detailed Outline

  • Non-linear forecasting

    • Problem

    • Idea

    • How-to

    • Experiments

    • Conclusions

C. Faloutsos


Recall problem 1
Recall: Problem #1

Value

Time

Given a time series {xt}, predict its future course, that is, xt+1, xt+2, ...

C. Faloutsos


How to forecast
How to forecast?

  • ARIMA - but: linearity assumption

  • ANSWER: ‘Delayed Coordinate Embedding’ = Lag Plots [Sauer92]

C. Faloutsos


General intuition lag plot

Interpolate these…

To get the final prediction

4-NN

New Point

General Intuition (Lag Plot)

Lag = 1,k = 4 NN

xt

xt-1

C. Faloutsos


Questions
Questions:

  • Q1: How to choose lag L?

  • Q2: How to choose k (the # of NN)?

  • Q3: How to interpolate?

  • Q4: why should this work at all?

C. Faloutsos


Q1 choosing lag l
Q1: Choosing lag L

  • Manually (16, in award winning system by [Sauer94])

  • Our proposal: choose L such that the ‘intrinsic dimension’ in the lag plot stabilizes [Chakrabarti+02]

C. Faloutsos


Fractal dimensions
Fractal Dimensions

  • FD = intrinsic dimensionality

Embedding dimensionality = 3

Intrinsic dimensionality = 1

C. Faloutsos


Fractal dimensions1
Fractal Dimensions

  • FD = intrinsic dimensionality

log( # pairs)

C. Faloutsos

log(r)


Intuition1

x(t)

time

The Logistic Parabola xt = axt-1(1-xt-1) + noise

Intuition

X(t)

  • Its lag plot for lag = 1

C. Faloutsos

X(t-1)


Intuition2

x(t)

x(t-1)

x(t-2)

x(t)

x(t)

x(t-1)

x(t-1)

x(t-2)

x(t-2)

Intuition

x(t)

x(t-1)

C. Faloutsos


Intuition3
Intuition

Fractal dimension

  • The FD vs L plot does flatten out

  • L(opt) = 1

C. Faloutsos

Lag


Proposed method

Fractal Dimension

epsilon

Choose this

Lag (L)

Proposed Method

  • Use Fractal Dimensions to find the optimal lag length L(opt)

C. Faloutsos


Q2 choosing number of neighbors k
Q2: Choosing number of neighbors k

  • Manually (typically ~ 1-10)

C. Faloutsos


Q3 how to interpolate
Q3: How to interpolate?

How do we interpolate between thek nearest neighbors?

A3.1: Average

A3.2: Weighted average (weights drop with distance - how?)

C. Faloutsos


Q3 how to interpolate1

A3.3: Using SVD - seems to perform best ([Sauer94] - first place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

Q3: How to interpolate?

xt

Xt-1

C. Faloutsos


Q4 any theory behind it
Q4: Any theory behind it? place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

A4: YES!

C. Faloutsos


Theoretical foundation
Theoretical foundation place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Based on the “Takens’ Theorem” [Takens81]

  • which says that long enough delay vectors can do prediction, even if there are unobserved variables in the dynamical system (= diff. equations)

C. Faloutsos


Theoretical foundation1

P place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

H

Skip

Theoretical foundation

Example: Lotka-Volterra equations

dH/dt = r H – a H*P dP/dt = b H*P – m P

H is count of prey (e.g., hare)P is count of predators (e.g., lynx)

Suppose only P(t) is observed (t=1, 2, …).

C. Faloutsos


Theoretical foundation2

P place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

H

Skip

Theoretical foundation

  • But the delay vector space is a faithful reconstruction of the internal system state

  • So prediction in delay vector space is as good as prediction in state space

P(t)

P(t-1)

C. Faloutsos


Detailed outline1
Detailed Outline place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Non-linear forecasting

    • Problem

    • Idea

    • How-to

    • Experiments

    • Conclusions

C. Faloutsos


Datasets

x(t) place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

time

Datasets

Logistic Parabola: xt = axt-1(1-xt-1) + noise Models population of flies [R. May/1976]

Lag-plot

C. Faloutsos


Datasets1

x(t) place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

time

Datasets

Logistic Parabola: xt = axt-1(1-xt-1) + noise Models population of flies [R. May/1976]

Lag-plot

ARIMA: fails

C. Faloutsos


Logistic parabola
Logistic Parabola place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

Our Prediction from here

Value

Timesteps

C. Faloutsos


Logistic parabola1

Value place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

Logistic Parabola

Comparison of prediction to correct values

Timesteps

C. Faloutsos


Datasets2

Value place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

Datasets

LORENZ: Models convection currents in the air

dx / dt = a (y - x)

dy / dt = x (b - z) - y

dz / dt = xy - c z

C. Faloutsos


Lorenz

Value place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

LORENZ

Comparison of prediction to correct values

Timesteps

C. Faloutsos


Datasets3

Value place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

Datasets

  • LASER: fluctuations in a Laser over time (used in Santa Fe competition)

Time

C. Faloutsos


Laser

Value place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

Laser

Comparison of prediction to correct values

Timesteps

C. Faloutsos


Conclusions1
Conclusions place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Lag plots for non-linear forecasting (Takens’ theorem)

  • suitable for ‘chaotic’ signals

C. Faloutsos


Additional projects at cmu
Additional projects at CMU place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Graph/Network mining

  • spatio-temporal mining - outliers

C. Faloutsos


Graph network mining
Graph/network mining place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Internet; web; gnutella P2P networks

  • Q: Any pattern?

  • Q: how to generate ‘realistic’ topologies?

  • Q: how to define/verify realism?

C. Faloutsos


Patterns
Patterns? place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • avg degree is, say 3.3

  • pick a node at random - what is the degree you expect it to have?

count

?

avg: 3.3

degree

C. Faloutsos


Patterns1
Patterns? place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • avg degree is, say 3.3

  • pick a node at random - what is the degree you expect it to have?

  • A: 1!!

count

avg: 3.3

degree

C. Faloutsos


Patterns2
Patterns? place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • avg degree is, say 3.3

  • pick a node at random - what is the degree you expect it to have?

  • A: 1!!

count

avg: 3.3

degree

C. Faloutsos


Patterns3
Patterns? place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

log(count)

  • A: Power laws!

log {(out) degree}

C. Faloutsos


Other laws

Effective Diameter place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

Other ‘laws’?

Count vs Indegree

Count vs Outdegree

Hop-plot

Stress

“Network value”

Eigenvalue vs Rank

C. Faloutsos


Rmat to generate realistic graphs

Effective Diameter place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

RMAT, to generate realistic graphs

Count vs Indegree

Count vs Outdegree

Hop-plot

Stress

“Network value”

Eigenvalue vs Rank

C. Faloutsos


Epidemic threshold
Epidemic threshold? place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • one a real graph, will a (computer / biological) virus die out? (given

    • beta: probability that an infected node will infect its neighbor and

    • delta: probability that an infected node will recover

NO

MAYBE

YES

C. Faloutsos


Epidemic threshold1
Epidemic threshold? place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • one a real graph, will a (computer / biological) virus die out? (given

    • beta: probability that an infected node will infect its neighbor and

    • delta: probability that an infected node will recover

  • A: depends on largest eigenvalue of adjacency matrix! [Wang+03]

C. Faloutsos


Additional projects
Additional projects place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Graph mining

  • spatio-temporal mining - outliers

C. Faloutsos


Outliers loci
Outliers - ‘LOCI’ place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

C. Faloutsos


Outliers loci1

finds outliers quickly, place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

with no human intervention

Outliers - ‘LOCI’

C. Faloutsos


Conclusions2
Conclusions place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • AWSOM for automatic, linear forecasting

  • MUSCLES for co-evolving sequences

  • F4 for non-linear forecasting

  • Graph/Network topology: power laws and generators; epidemic threshold

  • LOCI for outlier detection

C. Faloutsos


Conclusions3
Conclusions place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Overarching theme: automatic discovery of patterns (outliers/rules) in

    • time sequences (sensors/streams)

    • graphs (computer/social networks)

    • multimedia (video, motion capture data etc)

      www.cs.cmu.edu/~christos

      [email protected]

C. Faloutsos


Books
Books place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • William H. Press, Saul A. Teukolsky, William T. Vetterling and Brian P. Flannery: Numerical Recipes in C, Cambridge University Press, 1992, 2nd Edition. (Great description, intuition and code for DFT, DWT)

  • C. Faloutsos: Searching Multimedia Databases by Content, Kluwer Academic Press, 1996 (introduction to DFT, DWT)

C. Faloutsos


Books1
Books place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • George E.P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins and Gregory C. Reinsel, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Prentice Hall, 1994 (the classic book on ARIMA, 3rd ed.)

  • Brockwell, P. J. and R. A. Davis (1987). Time Series: Theory and Methods. New York, Springer Verlag.

C. Faloutsos


Resources software and urls
Resources: software and urls place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • MUSCLES: Prof. Byoung-Kee Yi:

    http://www.postech.ac.kr/~bkyi/

    or [email protected]

  • AWSOM & LOCI: [email protected]

  • F4, RMAT: [email protected]

C. Faloutsos


Additional reading
Additional Reading place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • [Chakrabarti+02] Deepay Chakrabarti and Christos Faloutsos F4: Large-Scale Automated Forecasting using Fractals CIKM 2002, Washington DC, Nov. 2002.

  • [Chen+94] Chung-Min Chen, Nick Roussopoulos: Adaptive Selectivity Estimation Using Query Feedback. SIGMOD Conference 1994:161-172

  • [Gilbert+01] Anna C. Gilbert, Yannis Kotidis and S. Muthukrishnan and Martin Strauss, Surfing Wavelets on Streams: One-Pass Summaries for Approximate Aggregate Queries, VLDB 2001

C. Faloutsos


Additional reading1
Additional Reading place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Spiros Papadimitriou, Anthony Brockwell and Christos Faloutsos Adaptive, Hands-Off Stream Mining VLDB 2003, Berlin, Germany, Sept. 2003

  • Spiros Papadimitriou, Hiroyuki Kitagawa, Phil Gibbons and Christos Faloutsos LOCI: Fast Outlier Detection Using the Local Correlation Integral ICDE 2003, Bangalore, India, March 5 - March 8, 2003.

  • Sauer, T. (1994). Time series prediction using delay coordinate embedding. (in book by Weigend and Gershenfeld, below) Addison-Wesley.

C. Faloutsos


Additional reading2
Additional Reading place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Takens, F. (1981). Detecting strange attractors in fluid turbulence. Dynamical Systems and Turbulence. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

  • Yang Wang, Deepayan Chakrabarti, Chenxi Wang and Christos Faloutsos Epidemic Spreading in Real Networks: An Eigenvalue Viewpoint 22nd Symposium on Reliable Distributed Computing (SRDS2003) Florence, Italy, Oct. 6-8, 2003

C. Faloutsos


Additional reading3
Additional Reading place in the Santa Fe forecasting competition)

  • Weigend, A. S. and N. A. Gerschenfeld (1994). Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past, Addison Wesley. (Excellent collection of papers on chaotic/non-linear forecasting, describing the algorithms behind the winners of the Santa Fe competition.)

  • [Yi+00] Byoung-Kee Yi et al.: Online Data Mining for Co-Evolving Time Sequences, ICDE 2000. (Describes MUSCLES and Recursive Least Squares)

C. Faloutsos


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