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Is Everybody Really Leaving Michigan?. Presentation for the Michigan Chamber of Commerce September 27, 2007 Kenneth Darga, State Demographer Department of History, Arts, and Libraries. Michigan’s migration patterns have some negative aspects and some positive aspects.

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Is everybody really leaving michigan l.jpg
Is Everybody Really Leaving Michigan?

  • Presentation for the Michigan Chamber of Commerce

  • September 27, 2007

  • Kenneth Darga, State Demographer

  • Department of History, Arts, and Libraries


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The Bad News: and some positive aspects.

  • The number of people moving out of Michigan is larger than the number of people moving into Michigan.


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1-Year and some positive aspects.


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Domestic Migration Ratios and some positive aspects.( OUT : IN )

  • 66 : 34 United Van Lines

  • 58 : 42 Internal Revenue Service

  • 58 : 42 American Community Survey

    • 66 : 34 ACS (age 55-64)

    • 52 : 48 ACS (age 27-34)


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Six Lowest Rates of Out-Migration in the U.S. for 2004-05 and some positive aspects.

  • 1.8% Texas

  • 1.8% Wisconsin

  • 1.8% Pennsylvania

  • 1.9% Michigan

  • 2.0% Ohio

  • 2.1% California




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In 2005, Michigan had the nation’s second lowest rate of outmigration (behind Texas) for persons age 27-34


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Rankings of Michigan’s Out-Migration Rates by Age, 2000-05 outmigration (behind Texas) for persons age 27-34

  • Age 1 – 5 #1 Age 35 – 44 #1

  • Age 6 – 12 #2 Age 45 – 54 #6

  • Age13 – 17 #1 Age 55 – 54 #12

  • Age 18 – 21 #3 Age 55 – 64 #29

  • Age 22 – 26 #3 Age 65 – 74 #19

  • Age 27 – 34 #1


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The only states with lower domestic in-migration than Michigan are New York and California.


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Out-Migration Rates for Labor Force Participants Age 22-34, 2000-2005

Mich.U.S.

No Degree 2.1% 3.5%

Associate’s Degree 1.5% 3.8%

Bachelor’s Degree 5.8% 7.0%

Master’s Degree 5.8% 7.7%

Professional Degree 6.1% 8.8%

Doctoral Degree 9.2% 13.3%

All Levels of Education 3.1% 4.6%

All Degrees 4.9% 6.5%

Bachelor’s and Higher 5.9% 7.3%


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Estimated Average Migration Flows, 2000-2005 2000-2005

College graduates age 22-34 in labor force:

  • 24,248 out-flow to other states

  • 24,897 in-flow from other states

  • 4,616 in-flow from other countries

  • 49 : 51 ratio of domestic out-movers to

    domestic in-movers



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WV AK MI LA OR MS NJ but those aspects are often overstated.

NE HI IA MN NH ND OK SD WY


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State Unemployment Rates in 2006 but those aspects are often overstated.Relative to Michigan

# of States % of Pop.

Within 2 pct-pt: 16 40%

Including: Ohio, Indiana, Texas, and California

Within 3 pct-pt: 35 81%

Including: Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota,

New York, North Carolina, Georgia


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Overlooked aspects of Michigan’s unemployment rate: but those aspects are often overstated.

  • It has not gone up since 2003.

  • It is lower than Michigan’s average from 1976 to 2006.

  • It is a little bit closer than usual to the lowest rate in the nation.


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That does not change the fact that the estimated unemployment rate for Michigan is:

  • Higher than anyone wants it to be.

  • Higher than in any other state.

    But it does help explain why Michigan’s migration patterns are better than they are usually portrayed to be in the media.


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