Coal and the Search for Energy Security: Challenges Facing China Junhui Wu Energy Sector Manager East Asia and Pacific Region. Regional Context. Fastest energy demand growth among all regions in the world Coal to account for nearly half of primary energy environmental impacts
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Coal and the Search for Energy Security:Challenges Facing China Junhui WuEnergy Sector ManagerEast Asia and Pacific Region
China Primary Energy Forecasts
DRC BAU: In 2020,
2.5 times 2000 level
IEA 2004: In 2020,
2.43 times 2000 level
Millions of Tons of Coal Equivalent
IEA 2002: In 2020,
1.75 times 2000 level
US DOE High Growth
US DOE Ref case
US DOE Low Growth
DRC Bus As Usual (BAU)
DRC Green Growth
Energy consumption in China expected to rise from 1,300 Mtce in 2000 to between 2,290 and 3,280 Mtce in 2020.
Per capita energy consumption will still be low in 2020 – with plenty of room for growth
Coal will dominate (>50% of primary energy till 2020). Coal consumption to increase from 1.3 billion tons in 2000 to between 2.1 and 2.9 billion tons in 2020.
Oil will account for about 27% of total primary energy in 2020. Consumption increase from 4.6m barrels per day in 2000 to between 9 and 12.2m barrels per day in 2020.
A More Energy-Efficient
Growth Path for China?
GDP/total energy use (PPP$/kg of oil eq) 2001
GDP per capita (PPP$, 2001)
Sources:The Economist World in Figures 2003, WDI 2003
…further reductions in intensity will not be as easy to realize
Improvements in China’s gross efficiency in power generation is expected to halt or reverse due to rapid growth of smaller less efficient units
Barriers to scale-up of deployment of
clean coal technologies
World Bank Involvement in the Energy Sector
- Past and Future
Junhui WuEnergy Sector ManagerEast Asia and Pacific Region