Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project 2010 Update

1. The Tampa Bay region is faced with some tough decisions of how to manage their system as population continues to grow and the watershed becomes more urbanized. The Tampa Bay region is faced with some tough decisions of how to manage their system as population continues to grow and the watershed becomes more urbanized.

2. Introduction The Tampa Bay Ecological Services Demonstration project will illustrate how regional and local managers can proactively use alternative future scenarios to conserve and enhance ecosystem goods and services in order to benefit human well-being and to secure the integrity and productivity of ecological systems. The Tampa Bay Ecological Services Demonstration project will illustrate how regional and local managers can proactively use alternative future scenarios to conserve and enhance ecosystem goods and services in order to benefit human well-being and to secure the integrity and productivity of ecological systems.

3. Functions, Services, and, Benefits

4. Tampa Bay Project Conceptual Model We are linking stressors and drivers to production functions in various ecosystems. These functions are then translated into services with value to humans in a spatially explicit manner. Stressors and Drivers will then be defined by multiple future scenarios so that the production of services can be compared. We are linking stressors and drivers to production functions in various ecosystems. These functions are then translated into services with value to humans in a spatially explicit manner. Stressors and Drivers will then be defined by multiple future scenarios so that the production of services can be compared.

5. Decision Support System Goal Provide tools for local to regional scale managers to make informed decisions on economic development and land use change in the context of climate change. Restoration and conservation prioritization Storm water ruling and green infrastructure Regional development planning Products: Atlas of ecosystem services under various alternate futures Interactive regional map showing connectivity between ecosystem services production and demand by humans Fully customizable map tool for running new scenarios at the regional scale

8. 2010-11 Research Elements Terrestrial Urban Forestry � Nitrogen removal Wetland Nitrogen Removal Carbon Storage Hydrology Links to Condition Assessments Open Water Impacts on Seagrass Growth Fishery Production All feed into a spatially linked predictive ecosystem services model

9. SIMILE Ecosystem Function Modules

10. What is the range of possible scenarios? Human population 100% Tree cover 5-10% New development 1.6-7 mil. acres Ag, pasture, forest 11% Impervious surface to 38% TN loads 3000 tons/yr Atmospheric CO2 190 ppm Precipitation 7.7% Temperature 4-9 oF Sea level rise 15 inches Hurricanes intensity

12. Website Delivery � Public Focused Digital �Coffee Table� Atlas

13. Questions? Ultimately we hope that the tools developed during the Tampa Bay project can help local managers deal with tough decisions by providing information on the ramifications of those decisions to the services the population of the Tampa Bay region rely on for their continued health and well-being. And with that I will take, time permitting, any questions on this project update. ThanksUltimately we hope that the tools developed during the Tampa Bay project can help local managers deal with tough decisions by providing information on the ramifications of those decisions to the services the population of the Tampa Bay region rely on for their continued health and well-being. And with that I will take, time permitting, any questions on this project update. Thanks