politics in mexico
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POLITICS IN MEXICO. LUIS ESTRADA [email protected] Spring quarter 2005. Conference USMEX 25 th Anniversary. Transition: Electorally driven No ideology in dispute, just to throw the PRI out of government Same politicians under different parties (same ruling elite)

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politics in mexico



[email protected]

Spring quarter 2005

conference usmex 25 th anniversary
Conference USMEX 25th Anniversary
  • Transition: Electorally driven
  • No ideology in dispute, just to throw the PRI out of government
  • Same politicians under different parties (same ruling elite)
  • Democracy still fragile, absence of majorities in the near future
  • Solution: MORE POLITICS
voting behavior
Voting Behavior
  • Sociological theory: social environment
  • Psychological theory: party identification (emotional attachment)
  • Rational theory: retrospective evaluations of government performance
  • Electoral studies in Mexico: recent and increasingly methodologically sophisticated
  • Surveys also recent (‘good ones’ since 1997)
voting behavior electoral studies
Voting Behavior: Electoral Studies
  • Surveys: individual level data
  • Mostly focused on the determinants of vote choice
  • Parties’ constituencies are clearly differentiated
  • Ad-hoc studies, lack of data does nto give the chance to make long time-series
voting behavior5
Voting behavior
  • Education
  • Age
  • Income
  • Region
  • Participation
  • Party ID
voting behavior dom nguez mccann 1996
Voting Behavior (Domínguez & McCann 1996)
  • Two-step model: First, voters decide whether to support or not the PRI; if not, then they decide ‘ideologically’ between PAN or PRD
  • But, there is no ideology!
  • Those voters who do not support the PRI choose the party/candidate that can defeat the PRI with most certainty (Estrada 1999; 2005)
voting behavior dom nguez 1999
Voting Behavior (Domínguez 1999)
  • Mexican democratic transition has been slowly, where the voter has been the most important protagonist (1988, 1997, 2000)
  • Diminishing risk aversion thanks to alternation at the municipal-state-federal levels
voting behavior dom nguez 2003
Voting Behavior (Domínguez 2003)
  • Why the PRI lost/PAN won in 2000? If the opposition vote was divided; PRI most partisans; PRI strong support in the states; Zedillo’s approval was high
  • The 2000 campaign mattered, but only one issue was at discussion: “CHANGE”
3 no ideological cues
3: No ideological cues
  • Individuals hold opinions on issues
  • These opinions, however, are not connected to an ideological debate
  • Parties have been so embedded in the issue of alternation that have left aside their ideological origins and differences-this will not change in the near future
voting behavior perspectives
Voting Behavior: Perspectives
  • Candidate-centered campaigns: trivial debates (personality, not issues)
  • Polarized situation (Presidential regime: “winner takes all” raises the stakes)
  • No candidate is expected to win more than 40 percent (divided government)